Without risk, we can't call it a career, but it's important to know where there are risks, and leave a way for ourselves.
Today is10.22Hello, I am Jiashu. Welcome to Jiashu Morning Review. During the morning review, we will review the overnight market and provide an outlook on the market trend for today's day. First of all, let's review yesterday's view on the market. Yesterday, gold is expected to experience resistance suppressed by the trend line1924Short selling opportunities on the first line, overnight gold surged as high as1931At present, we are still testing the suppression of the trend line, and the crude oil is in line with my expectations. The overnight crude oil has been affected by the inventory data, and I can no longer roast about it in Europe and the United States. The range of rise and fall is not large. But from the overall trend, the rise in Europe and the United States has ended, and those who do more can leave the market for a rest!
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[font=inherit]gold[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
Gold continued to rise after Wednesday's opening1920Near the US dollar, in the afternoon1920The US dollar fluctuated up and down, and after the opening of the US market, it once again made efforts to rise, reaching a maximum of1931USD, up nearly from daily lows25US dollar, final increase0.83%Report1923.97dollar/ounce.
Schumer, the leader of the US Senate Minority Party (Democratic Party), stated that in the Republican Party's5000There are too many people not covered in the billion yuan stimulus plan. Pelosi said that it is possible to reach an agreement with Nuqin on the stimulus plan to deal with the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. The two plan to have another dialogue tomorrow, but may not be able to catch up11month3Recently, it was approved by both houses of Congress. Chief of staff Meadows of the White House said that the founding government was seeking1.9The trillion dollar rescue bill aims to achieve48Reach an agreement within hours.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that the recovery is still ongoing, but not significant. The economic activities of different industries vary greatly, and prices in different regions have risen moderately.
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
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Gold daily level, overnight gold was driven up by positive news and broke through at one point1930The highest test has been conducted1931The first line position, the suggestion given in yesterday's morning review was to wait15The minute level top deviation is established, the hour level dead cross is established, and after double confirmation, enter the market to short. So the opportunity to short appeared in the early morning of this morning, and it is estimated that no one can do it. It's okay not to do it, it's better not to do it than to do it wrong. There are still many opportunities, so let's take a look at today's opportunities!
Looking at the short cycle today, gold is at a high level1931In the downward trend,15Last night, the minute level deviated from the bearish trend and the fast slow line quickly fell back. The hour level fast slow line also died, but its driving effect on the market was not strong, after all, gold was supported by positive news. So at the half hour level, the fast and slow lines are approaching0There are signs of shrinkage and adhesion after the axis, and it cannot be ruled out that the speed line at the half hour level will be affected0The golden cross above the axis rises again, driving the market to move forward again1931Above the high point, forming a top deviation pattern. Of course, if it doesn't fall, it would be better. However, there is still a possibility, and there must be some psychological expectations. So how do we do today's operation? If the short orders in the early morning don't catch up, it's definitely not appropriate to chase them now. It's recommended to wait for the rebound of gold. If the short orders have already entered the market and made profits, you can reduce your position. If the market continues to decline in the future, you can wait for the appropriate point to increase your position. If the rebound occurs, it's okay for your position to be light. Wait1931Just continue adding positions at the top position!
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[font=inherit]crude oil[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
WTICrude oil started a downward trend in the afternoon, starting from41.5The US dollar fell to41Below the US dollar,EIAAfter the announcement of inventory, the decline further expanded and broke through40The US dollar level has dropped to a minimum of39.77USD, ultimately closing down2.73%Report40.01dollar/Bucket.
From the United States to10month16Day and WeekEIAReduction in crude oil inventory100.1Ten thousand barrels, the decrease is lower than the expected decrease in the market102.1Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease381.8Ten thousand barrels. Record Changes in US Gasoline Inventory6month5Day and Week（20A new high since the beginning of the week; Continuous changes in inventory of Cushing crude oil in Oklahoma, United States5Weekly record growth.
Last week, domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased60Ten thousand barrels, it is reasonable to say that due to the impact of the hurricane, most of the crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico has been closed, and the reduction in production should be more than that. In addition, the number of oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States increased last week13Mouth, creating1The largest weekly increase since the beginning of the month. The demand outlook in the oil market is not optimistic, OPEC+With no intention of further reducing production, the market is concerned that increasing shale oil production in the United States will further exacerbate the oil market.
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
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crude oil15Minute chart: Overnight, crude oil was affected by bearish data and has been falling all the way. Currently, it is still continuously falling to new lows. The crude oil suggestion given in yesterday's early review is to wait for15Minute Rebound Out41.8The high point above formed a bearish top deviation pattern, and later combined with the hour level fast slow line dead cross to enter and short. However, yesterday's crude oil15Minute out of direct downward trend, the expected pattern did not appear, so we had to enter directly after the hour level fast/slow line dead cross. This is an emergency response. What should we do when the market does not match your expectations, and what should we do if we do not enter? What should be done during holding positions? Do you have your own plan?
So what should I do today when facing a significant decline in crude oil15The minute chart depicts a possible trend, and it is also possible for crude oil to15The minute level fast slow line once again deadlocked and fell too much, directly disrupting this potential bullish bottom deviation pattern. It should be noted that crude oil4The hour level top deviation bearish view was established yesterday,4The hourly fast slow line is currently declining, and the overall trend of crude oil is downward. It is not wise to fight for a rebound. The best suggestion is to maintain a high short position. If15Minute rebound can come out, focus on the top40.3/40.5A frontline short selling opportunity!
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[font=inherit]Europe and America[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
EU sources say that EU negotiators are expected to travel to London as soon as Thursday for negotiations, which will continue until10month25Day, the goal is to11An agreement was reached in mid month. Officials say the decision still depends on the phone calls between the UK's chief negotiator for Brexit, Frost, and the EU's chief negotiator, Banier. The EU's chief negotiator, Banier, stated that without a fair fisheries solution, there would be no trade agreement.
President of the President of the European Council Michel said that the Brexit agreement needs to be fully implemented. What we need is British assurance, not just empty words. Be prepared for full day negotiations at any time, and the level of access to the EU internal market will be determined by the response to UK sovereignty.
Today is also the last day to pay attention to Europe and America again. Recently, Europe and America have also made multiple orders and empty orders. If I give a suggestion today, I will temporarily not look at this variety. The foreign exchange world is so big, I want to go and see other varieties!
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106525]
European and American hourly chart, let's review the recent operations in Europe and America. I am interested in this variety in Europe and America10.15At that time, I was recording a small video and suddenly realized that there was a good opportunity for Europe and America to build a bottom and rebound. At that time, Europe and America were still1.173On the first line, I assert that Europe and America will hit a new low in the future, testing1.17Support, then rebound, detailed analysis can be seen at that time10.15Unzip European and American articles and small videos. So subsequently, Europe and America were also very cooperative, quickly stepping out of the decline and falling to the lowest point1.1688On the first line, the bottoming is completed, and the bullish bottoming deviation pattern is established, starting to rise. This wave of multiple orders from Europe and America can be said to be very perfect, yesMACDA perfect demonstration of the application of cycle theory.
So, in Europe and America, the rise has touched1.18Afterwards, I anticipate that the rise in Europe and America will come to an end1.181Nearby, there was a prompt to enter the sky. Unexpectedly, Europe and the United States continued to rise due to the decline in the US dollar, and succeeded in1.183Sweep away my stop loss, but at that time, bearish patterns in Europe and America had already appeared in various cycles, so I continued to pay attention1.186Frontline suppression has also been successful in Europe and America1.186The front line is starting to fall back!
Today, let's take a final look. The hour line in Europe and America has now established its top deviation form and is starting to decline,4The hour fast and slow lines are also beginning to bond, and it is expected that Europe and America will experience a wave of decline. Just as the upward trend in Europe and America is phased, the downward trend in Europe and America will also be phased. So don't worry, calm down, and get plenty of food!
This article is exclusively written by Jiashu. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market. It is recommended for reference only!
