Without risk, we can't call it a career, but it's important to know where there are risks, and leave a way for ourselves.
Today is10.23Hello, I am Jia Shu. Today is Friday, the last debate of the US presidential election. Chuan Jianguo and Bai Laozi compete together again on stage. I mentioned in the live broadcast that Comrade Jianguo is a political rogue, while Bai Laozi is considered a traditional political elite in the United States. In the first debate, Bai Laozi learned about Comrade Jianguo's reckless and tangled behavior, which is like Guo Furong encountering Bai Zhantang, Where have elite individuals who have been well behaved since childhood encountered such a situation? So today's debate, with Comrade Jianguo present, would be a good talk show!
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[font=inherit]gold[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Pelosi stated that she and Nuchin are close to reaching an agreement on key aspects of virus testing and contact tracking. The aid bill can be passed in the House of Representatives before the election and is ready to be signed. In addition, US National Economic Advisor Kudlow also stated that for the salary protection plan（PPP）The funds have also reached an agreement. The White House Chief of Staff, James Meadows, stated that Jianguo has received Republican support for economic stimulus. At present, the Democratic Party's request for assistance to state and local governments, funding for school aid, and the Republican Party's insistence on allowing employers to waive some of their responsibilities have not yet been agreed with the government. In addition, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Shelby stated that the Appropriations Committee has not yet received details of the stimulus plan.
From the United States to10month17Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week78.710000 people, lower than market expectations86Ten thousand people, refreshing this year3New low since the end of the month, previous value from89.8Downward cultivation84.2Ten thousand people. Record of the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States last week837.3Ten thousand people, the second consecutive4Weekly decline, and3For the first time since the end of the month1000Ten thousand.
U.S.A9Annualized total sales of completed houses65410000 households, higher than market expectations630Ten thousand households, creating2006year5The highest level since the beginning of the month.
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106557]
The half hour chart of gold shows that after the opening of the Asian session on Thursday, the overall price of gold declined, but rebounded slightly in the afternoon. During the European session, it continued to decline and broke at the beginning of the US session1900Pass, lowest drop to1894.64US dollar, falling from daily highs30USD, ultimately closing down1.06%Report1903.65dollar/Ounces. Gold hit our main target last night1900After a big victory, gold has remained at1900Above the gate, also4The position of the hourly upward trend line is currently under consideration. What is the next step? At the same time, you also need to consider what you should do next?
Looking at the half hour chart, the overnight gold hit its lowest point1894First line, followed by a slight rebound and a comeback1900Above, half an hourMACDThe fast and slow lines slowly diverge upwards after the low golden cross, and are currently approaching0The shaft shows signs of re bonding with dead forks, hour lineMACDThe fast and slow line did not rise rapidly after the golden cross, as there was no bullish pattern in the short cycle, so the hourly line did not move up. Therefore, today I will enter the short market again in two situations: first, as shown in the figure, the half hour fast and slow line0Under the axis, there is a dead cross, and I will enter and short. Secondly, the half hour pattern continues to the hour line, which means the half hour fast slow line directly goes up0Axis, hour line fast slow line on0Under the axis, there is a dead cross, and I will enter and short. Don't ask me the specific location. I don't care about the location, just look at the form. If the form meets my needs, I will enter. Love is at any point!
[font=inherit]crude oil[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
Russian President Putin says Russia is concerned about delaying OPEC+We maintain an open attitude towards increasing production and will follow the degree of market recovery to determine whether to further suppress oil production. In the future30-50It is unrealistic to give up using hydrocarbons during the year.
Today, let me talk to you about the fundamentals and why I believe crude oil prices will continue to decline. This year's decline in crude oil prices seems to be due to the collapse of production reduction agreements and the significant increase in production in Saudi Arabia. This is not the case behind it. It is important to know that the cost prices of crude oil in Saudi Arabia and Laomaozi are10Around the US dollar, let alone the current price of crude oil40Even before20They still make money, but the biggest damage to the increase in production in Saudi Arabia and Laomaozi is the shale oil in the United States, which has high production costs45Around US dollars, and within2018In, the United States has become the world's largest oil exporter and is not yet subject to production reduction agreements. It is clear who the target is behind it. However, based on the current situation in the United States, it is still struggling, and the total number of oil drilling in the United States is still increasing. This means that even if the shale oil in the United States loses money, it must be sold with a stick, otherwise the wolves will fight back like crazy. Saudi Arabia and the Lao Maozi may not understand this principle, even if they cannot fight to death, It also needs to be severely weakened, so I believe that a wave of decline is not enough, and there will be a pullback in the future. This is based on my own research and analysis of some data and current affairs news. I may have considered it too simplistic, as I did not graduate from an international relations major!
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106558]
crude oil15Minute chart, crude oil came out of decline yesterday, lowest test39.7Subsequently stabilized and rebounded upwards, currently returning40Above, the suggestion given in yesterday's article is also to continue short selling after a rebound, mainly based on the possibility of a bearish pattern of top deviation in the half hour and hour line market. Currently, this consideration has not been established, and the rebound of crude oil is a bit fierce, with the highest rebound reaching41Nearby, but this does not affect my overall thinking, I will still remain bearish! Let's talk about my views and operational opportunities today!
The crude oil is shown in the above figure,15The minute speed line is on0After the dead fork above the shaft falls back, it is currently0The shaft is once again bonded and forked, and the crude oil may rise again in the future market and exit41The new high above forms a top deviation bearish pattern, or the pattern continues to the half hour level and exits the bearish pattern at the half hour level. At the same time, we can see that the fast and slow lines at the hour level are very severely glued, even if they are driven away by another rise in the future market, the distance will not be far, and there is a possibility of a dead fork at any time. And I assert that,4The current golden cross of the hour fast slow line is a fake golden cross. So today's operational opportunities exist41upper!
[font=inherit]silver[/font]
Yesterday I consulted with everyone to see which variety I am interested in, but it seems that there is not much interest in foreign exchange. Now, don't everyone like doing foreign exchange? Some people say they want me to show them silver, but I rarely look at silver. As someone who likes the new and dislikes the old, they must like the new. So, silver! Silver has nothing to say about its fundamentals, just refer to gold!
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106559]
The silver hourly chart shows that the trend of silver and gold is basically consistent, and currently maintains a fluctuating downward trend. Even the technical indicators are basically consistent, with an hourly levelMACDThe trend of the fast and slow line is very obvious, and the decline is not over yet. After the golden cross, there is not even any divergent momentum, and there is a high probability that it will fall below the previous low and break out of the new low. At the half hour level, it is also like gold. The fast and slow line has already died, and short orders can enter the market. I even think that silver's decline will be much stronger than gold, and at the half hour level, the fast and slow line will even fall below the position of the previous golden cross, If it's supported below, let's take a look first24Let's pass the barrier, but I don't think we can hold on to it. Those with available orders can continue to hold on!
Today's first day of watching silver, let me briefly say a few words, and I will continue to follow for a period of time. If you are interested in other varieties, you can also give me feedback, and I will arrange for it in the future!
This article is exclusively written by Jiashu. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market. It is recommended for reference only!
