Without risk, we can't call it a career, but it's important to know where there are risks, and leave a way for ourselves.
Today is10.21Hello, I am Jiashu. I adjusted my work mode yesterday and I'm not sure if everyone is still adapting. If you have any good feedback or suggestions, please feel free to give it back! Yesterday, gold remained in a slightly volatile trend, but after rebounding in the early trading session, it has not shown a clear direction. However, crude oil had an upward trend overnight, and currently the highest test has been conducted42First line, ultimately unable to physically break through41.5The double top suppression in Europe and America surprised me, breaking away from another situation mentioned in yesterday's review, with the highest rising to1.184However, the decline in Europe and America is something that will happen sooner or later. Although it is currently an upward trend, the patterns it takes out all have a bearish flavor.
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[font=inherit]gold[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
Gold once fell to1894The daily low of the US dollar has rebounded, and during the European period1900The level fluctuated up and down, and during the US market, news of the stimulus bill briefly rose to1914USD, up from daily lows20US dollar, final increase0.24%Report1908.11dollar/ounce.
On Tuesday, there were new developments in the US fiscal stimulus bill. White House chief of staff Meadows（Mark Meadows）The National Government and the Democratic Party have made progress in Tuesday's stimulus talks, narrowing their differences, but they need to overcome some major differences in order to reach an agreement before the election. Pelosi and Nuchin had a conversation45After a minute of conversation, Meadows outlined the status of the meeting. He stated that both sides have made good progress, but there is still some way to go before reaching an agreement. The two sides have now narrowed the scope of their disagreement on the size of the bailout: the White House has increased its size to nearly1.9Trillion US dollars, but still lower than the one passed by the House of Representatives earlier this month2.2Trillion US dollars.
The Washington Post reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter, that Senate Majority Leader McConnell warned the White House on Tuesday not to reach a stimulus agreement before the election, as it could undermine the Senate's nomination plan for chief justice next week.
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106488]
gold4Hour chart, if you look at it, gold is still fluctuating around the trend line, and the pressure above is1924One line, supported below1890On the front line, it is expected to break through the suppression or support, break out of the trend, and break through the direction in the future. I am still bearish, but this is only my opinion, and I will not make a short order layout before the breakthrough. A better operation is to break through after the breakthrough, so that there is room for both upward and downward breakthroughs.
Gold is expected to remain volatile today, so trading opportunities can still be found in the short cycle,15On the minute chart, a clear top deviation pattern can be seen, and the hour line fast and slow lines are also shrinking and showing signs of a golden cross. However, there is still some space left for the golden cross. It is recommended to continue observing, as suggested yesterday, and enter the field after double confirmation,15The minute top deviation is established, and the hour level fast slow line golden fork can enter and short! however5At the minute level, there is still a possibility of upward momentum in the short term, so it is recommended to focus on it1924The suppression situation on the front line!
[font=inherit]crude oil[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
WTICrude oil during the day40.6-41.2Between oscillations, it began to decline in the evening and plummeted to40.45The daily low of the US dollar continued to rise after the opening of the US market, with a peak of41.87US dollar, final increase1.06%Report41.13dollar/Bucket. Brent crude oil rose0.75%Report42.77dollar/Bucket.
Last week in the United StatesAPIIncrease in crude oil inventory58.4Ten thousand barrels, a reduction exceeding expectations24Ten thousand barrels, refined oil inventory has significantly decreased, and crude oil imports have slightly increased compared to the previous week. Financial Blog Zero Hedge Comment,EIAThe report points out that the increase in demand in the agricultural and residential industries in the coming months will help reduce refined oil inventories, but not enough to drive up prices.
Two sources said that if the global market worsens due to weak demand and the surge of COVID-19 cases, Russia may support2020After the year, the scale of global oil production reduction will remain unchanged, and by then, the reduction should have been relaxed. Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar stated that Iraq needs to obtain foreign investment to meet the challenges, and the oil market will be more balanced by the second quarter of next year. It is expected that5reach6The daily production within the year will reach700Ten thousand barrels.
Technical aspect:
[attachment=106489]
crude oil4The hourly chart shows that the current trend of crude oil is relatively consistent with that of gold, both of which maintain a range fluctuation trend, with crude oil reaching its highest overnight surge42First line, once breaking through the double top41.5The suppression, but ultimately leaving a shadow line, failed to complete the break of the double top. So far,41.5The suppression is still effective. There have been signs of breakthroughs in crude oil recently, as it has been suppressed above testing and has not been able to achieve a breakthrough, but it has not fallen back. It seems like I am about to be defeated by the Saudi Energy Minister, but it's okay. This is just my opinion, and it's normal to misread it. No one can blame anyone who is not a saint!
So what are the trading opportunities on crude oil today? Like gold, crude oil continues to look for short selling opportunities at high levels because facing pressure, I cannot go long, let alone15On the minute chart, crude oil has already stepped out of a potential top deviation pattern, and the hourly level fast/slow line is also close to a dead cross. Therefore, in the short term, future crude oil may continue to rise, break through the previous high position, break out of a new high, form a top deviation pattern, and then begin to fall. Well, this is today's prediction of crude oil trend. If it meets our prediction, enter the operation, and if it does not, continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude!
[font=inherit]Europe and America[/font]
[font=inherit]Fundamentals:[/font]
At present, the performance of the US dollar has the greatest impact on the trend of the euro, while the impact of the UK Europe negotiations and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank on the euro is relatively small. The US dollar index continued to decline during the European session and briefly broke through during the US session93, for9month21For the first time in the past, it ultimately closed down0.37%Report93.08。 This is also the main driving force behind the overnight rise of the euro!
The budget draft published by EU member states on the European Commission website shows that all19The total fiscal deficit of member states this year is9760Billion euros, approximately accounting for the EUGDPof8.9%。 It is worth noting that the above numbers mean that the EU's budget deficit this year will be higher than last year's level and the European Commission's previous forecast for this year's level10About times. Governments around the world expect that even if the economy2021The annual rebound, the deficit will remain high, and the total amount is generally lower than7000Billion euros, accounting for the EUGDPof6%about. According to data from the European Central Bank, the last time the eurozone budget deficit peaked was2010At the beginning of the year, the level at that time accounted forGDPThe specific gravity is approximately6.6%The high public debt has laid the groundwork for the subsequent eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
The EU's first issuance of social bonds is reported to have achieved over2330100 million euros（2750The subscription of 100 million US dollars has set a record in the eurozone. Sales of European bonds exceeded1.5Trillion euros, reaching a record high.
[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106490]
Yesterday in the evening review, I gave the euro1.181At the time of the short warning, I raised a question about the possibility of the euro continuing to rise in the future. Who would have thought it would be a prophecy? The euro continued to rise overnight, driven by the decline of the US dollar, and the highest test was conducted1.184And naturally, my empty order is also1.183Perfect stop loss! Will the euro's upward trend change my attitude? No, the reason is the same as gold. Recently, the correlation between gold and Europe is very strong. Although Europe and America have risen, it implies a shadow of decline!
In Europe and America, on an hourly level, if the fast slow line moves up and directly crosses the previous dead end position, then it is necessary to take a new look at the current trend in Europe and America. Short cycle15Minutes and30Looking at the minutes, Europe and the United States are still constantly moving towards a peak and divergence pattern, but why hasn't they fallen4At present, there is still some space between the hour level fast and slow lines and the dead end, so European and American bulls are constantly consuming kinetic energy4The hour level fast and slow lines start to bond, then we can start laying out the European and American air orders!
Don't panic in everything. It's normal for the market to go wrong and do the right thing5Can we make a mistake once? (Keyboardists, don't spray me, otherwise I'm afraid I'll spray back!), just like a market, it can't go down all the time and won't go up all the time. Any market has a rhythmic rise or fall, and it goes back and forth!
This article is exclusively written by Jiashu. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market. It is recommended for reference only!
