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Danske Bank: We maintain our stance on the Euro/The strategic bearish stance of the US dollar aims to break below parity ...

2025-1-7 11:30| Publisher: 2233| see: 803| comment: 0

abstract: Summary: Danish Bank is still strategically bearish on the euro/USD, expected to reach Euro by the end of the year/The US dollar is expected to fall below parity, while acknowledging that weak US data in the short term may bring tactical upside potential. Key points of the US labor market: Focus on this week's US labor data, including Friday's non farm payroll data. Market for Beauty ...

Summary

丹麦银行仍然在战略上看跌欧元/USD, expected to reach Euro by the end of the year/美元将跌破平价，同时承认短期内美国数据走弱可能带来战术上行空间。

main points

美国劳动力市场焦点：

关注本周的美国劳动力数据，包括周五的非农就业数据。

市场对美联储在 1 month FOMC 会议上降息的预期仍然很低（约 10%）。

美联储政策展望：

丹麦银行预测 2025 年全年每季度将降息 25 个基点，是市场预期降息速度的两倍。

特朗普的政策可能给美联储降息周期和美国经济前景增添不确定性。

euro/美元影响：

如果美国数据表现不佳且市场预期发生转变，欧元/美元短期内可能上涨。

从战略上看跌欧元/美元，预计随着美元持续走强，欧元/美元将在年底前测试平价。

conclusion

尽管美国数据走弱可能在短期内缓解欧元/美元走势，但受美联储降息预期、美元走强和地缘政治因素影响，丹斯克银行维持长期看跌观点。

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Danske Bank: We maintain our stance on the Euro/The strategic bearish stance of the US dollar aims to break below parity ...

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