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Barclays Bank: Bank of Japan 12 Monthly meetings may trigger a rise in the Japanese yen

2023-12-15 09:18| Publisher: 2233| see: 220| comment: 0

abstract: Summary: Barclays analyzed the upcoming Bank of Japan（BoJ）The potential outcome of the policy meeting suggests that the yen may rise based on the actions and signals from the Bank of Japan regarding policy normalization. Key point: Market pricing of Bank of Japan policy: Japan Overnight Index Swap (OIS) The market is currently based on the Bank of Japan ...

概要：

巴克莱分析了即将举行的日本央行（BoJ）政策会议的潜在结果，表明基于日本央行有关政策正常化的行动和信号，日元可能会上涨。

关键点：

日本央行政策的市场定价： Japan Overnight Index Swap (OIS) 市场正在根据日本央行退出负利率政策 (NIRP) 的不同概率进行定价即将举行的会议：12 Month is 33%，1 Month is 53%，4 月超过 100%。

12 月会议与 1 月会议：巴克莱认为 12 月加息的可能性低于 1 月，届时日本央行将更新其经济预测。

政策正常化信号的潜力：

情景：如果日本央行在 12 月发出实现政策正常化的具体步骤，例如明确表示 1 月份加息或取消通胀超调承诺，则可能会引发日元反弹。

日本央行主导的日元走势：此类公告可能导致 12 month 19 日日元大幅升值。

dollar/日元走势：在日本央行没有发出新信号的情况下，美元/日元汇率预计将主要受到美元走势的影响。

Conclusion:

巴克莱预计，12 月日本央行会议可能会导致日元上涨，具体取决于央行发出进一步政策正常化步骤的信号。市场目前正在评估即将举行的会议上 NIRP 退出的可能性，并对 1 月份的重大公告抱有更大的期望。 12月会议的结果，尤其是任何政策转变的明确迹象，都可能对日元兑美元汇率产生重大影响。

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Barclays Bank: Bank of Japan 12 Monthly meetings may trigger a rise in the Japanese yen

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