The UK housing price index has risen for the second consecutive month, but the pound remains weak

2023-12-7 16:30| Publisher: 2233| see: 3376| comment: 0

abstract: Analysis and key points of the pound: UK housing prices provide support for the struggling pound. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States lays the foundation for tomorrow's non-farm employment report. pound/The US dollar hesitated before the release of key US data. The fundamental background of GBP/USD is that GBP is still sluggish, but after an unexpected month on month increase in housing prices, today ...

Analysis of GBP and key points of conversation

  • UK housing pricesbyTrapped in difficultiespoundProvide support.
  • The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States is tomorrow'sNon agricultural employmentThe report lays the foundation.
  • pound/dollarHesitation before the release of key data in the United States.

Background of GBP/USD Fundamentals

poundStill sluggish, but attempting to seek support this morning after an unexpected month on month increase in housing prices (see economic calendar below)foreign exchangeThe market is relatively calm, and tomorrow's non-agricultural employment (NFP)Before the report, there was almost no arrangement of high-impact economic dataYesterday, the construction industry in the UK PMI Data is weak, andBank of England (BoE)President Andrew Bailey (Andrew Bailey) The impact is minimal, and now the focus is shifting to the United States seeking guidance.

pound/dollarEconomic calendar(GMT +02:00)

The UK housing price index has risen for the second consecutive month, but the pound remains weak619 / author: / source:The UK housing price index has risen for the second consecutive month, but the pound remains weak684 / author: / source:

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar

Later today, the unemployment benefit application data will be closely monitored, especially the number of first-time applicants, as this statistical data shows any new/The emerging unemployment situation.yesterday ADP The employment changes did not meet expectations, but considering their recent relationship with NFP The disconnection of data will result in the market largely ignoring its predictive ability.

The Bank of England's money market pricing (as shown below) has been "moderately" repriced, andNext timeBefore the interest rate announcement, only the UKGDPAnd the UK employment report, these two data points will have a significant impact on future pricing.

Probability of Bank of England interest rates

The UK housing price index has risen for the second consecutive month, but the pound remains weak555 / author: / source:

Source: Lu Fute

technical analysis

pound/dollarDaily chart

The UK housing price index has risen for the second consecutive month, but the pound remains weak328 / author: / source:

Chart byWarren Venketas 

pound/USD per dayPrice trendApproaching critical support level1.2500 psychologyGateway/ 200 Daily moving average(blue), because the currency pair has detachedRelative strength index (RSI)Display the overbought area.The short-term directional deviation will come from tomorrow's non farm employment data, which is expected to rise and may continue the recent downward trend of the pound.

Key resistance level:

  • 1.2900
  • 1.2848
  • 1.2746

Key support positions:

  • 1.2500
  • 200Daily moving average
  • 1.2400
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