Eagle hover commandgoldSuppressed, Future Focus on US Economy Last week（9month18The rebound of gold was hindered by1950Nearby, weekKThe rising trend of the star line with a longer upper shadow is still suppressed. Joint Commission9The monthly interest rate resolution was suspended in an eagle like manner, and the US dollar was once again boosted, with ten consecutive weekly gains; Gold shows a trend of rising and falling, but still unable to break through1950。 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that stronger than expected economic growth requires higher interest rates and will further raise interest rates in appropriate circumstances. That is to say, the stable economic situation has given the Federal Reserve the confidence to be "eagle like". If the overall performance of US economic data is better than expected, then gold may find it difficult to exit5The difficulties since the beginning of the month. However, once the US economy moves towards a downturn, the Federal Reserve will change its tough stance under pressure, and gold is expected to gain market demand at that time. The author believes that it is difficult to determine when the US economy will begin to noticeably weaken or even fall into recession, but "higher and longer" interest rates may make the aforementioned risks difficult to avoid. In fact, more and more signs suggest that the US and even the global economy are at risk of recession or even depression! The outlook for the US economy seems less positive from the outside world, including some former Federal Reserve officials who are also relatively cautious. Recently, former US Treasury Secretary Summers stated that the latest economic forecasts from Federal Reserve policymakers are overly optimistic. Former Vice Chairman of the Federal ReserveDonald KohnFormer Director of the Federal ReserveKevin WarshIt is believed that the Joint Reserve Committee is unlikely to achieve the goal of an economic soft landing. Investors need to understand that the Federal Reserve's predictions of inflation and economic prospects can also go wrong, and the number of errors is not uncommon. For example, the Federal Reserve made a big mistake in predicting this round of inflation and ultimately had to resort to violent interest rate hikes. In fact, the continuous inversion of US bond yields has already issued a warning of economic recession. If the above content lacks persuasiveness, then the global economy"Canary"Sending out another lamentation, indicating that global recession may be inevitable. Economics"Canary"Amidst sorrow, the prospect of gold is promising 17In the 19th century, gas leaks often occurred in British coal mines, resulting in the deaths of many miners. Later on, people discovered that canaries were quite sensitive to changes in the gas composition of the environment. Therefore, they would bring their cages containing canaries to the pit during mining operations. Once the canaries showed unusual reactions, they could predict the imminent danger. Therefore, in later generations, the term canary was used to refer to an indicator for assessing environmental risks. And South Korea is a global economy"Canary"。 Since the last century60years"Han River Miracle"At the beginning, South Korea's economy was highly dependent on overseas markets, and exports were crucial. Its export volume ranked seventh in the world and it was closely linked to major economies such as the United States, Europe, China, and Japan. At the same time, South Korea's export commodities are diverse, covering household appliances, consumer electronics, semiconductors, communication equipment, automobiles, petrochemical products, ships, etc. Therefore, fluctuations in South Korean exports are considered trade"barometer"Reflecting the prosperity and decline of the global economy. 1979In, South Korea experienced a trade deficit;1980In, the global economy declined. 1997In, South Korea experienced a trade deficit,1998In, the Asian financial crisis broke out. 2008In, South Korea experienced a trade deficit, and in the same year, the United States experienced a subprime crisis and triggered a global financial tsunami. It can be said that South Korea's trade deficit is a very accurate warning for the global economy. Currently, South Korea is not only in a deficit state, but the duration of the deficit is also not short. 2022In, South Korea's trade deficit hit a record high472The historical high of one billion US dollars is due to2008Since the global financial crisis in14In, there was a trade deficit again. from2022year3Month to2023year5In June, South Korea's foreign trade deficit continued15Months. Although South Korea is6Month achieved15The first surplus after six months was mostly caused by a sharp decrease in imports, while exports remained weak. The latest data shows that South Korea8The monthly export amount is518.7Billion US dollars, year-on-year decline8.4%; The import amount is510Billion US dollars, year-on-year decline22.8%. This reflects the continued weakness of South Korea's exports, and the situation is still not optimistic. Based on historical experience, the risk of the global economy falling into recession or even depression in the coming months is very high, and the United States may not be able to survive alone! Therefore, the author believes that investors should maintain a cautious attitude towards the economic outlook of the United States and closely monitor the performance of some important economic indicators. Once the US economic data becomes increasingly weak, a large amount of loose bets on the Federal Reserve will return. |
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