Under the cover of the nest, An has finished laying eggs. The most terrifying thing still happened, and someone died. 12month3Day, Guangzhou Eggshell Apartment 118The tenant jumped out of the building. According to reports, this tenant is a young man who has just graduated and has not yet worked. It is said that9Yue just signed a one-year rent loan contract. According to the report, he received a notification from the landlord that he had not received the rent paid by the eggshell and requested the tenant to move within a week; At the moment of the ultimatum, he chose to end his life. At present, the landlord has stated that he has not posted a notice, but regardless of the truth, his life cannot be restored. At three o'clock in the morning that day, the young man posted a Moment: "I'm sorry. Finally, he couldn't see the sun in Guangzhou again. 1 The eggshell thunderstorm may not be the only reason why he chose to end his life, but it is clearly a straw that crushed the camel. Previously, there had been similar incidents in Beijing, but fortunately no one was killed in the end. 11month23Day, one person26A year old eggshell tenant stood on the rooftop of the eggshell apartment's Beijing headquarters. It is said that she called the reporter and said, "After I die, I hope everyone's money can be returned Talking about the story of eggshells in front of a young person's life is a bit heavy. However, the explosion of long-term rental apartments is actually an expected topic, reflecting more than just stories of entrepreneurial failure. stay2020In the first half of the year, due to the epidemic, there were already rumors of various types of thunderstorms in many smaller long-term rental apartments, which actually questioned a basic question: whether the business model of long-term rental apartments was established. The long-term rental apartment model is actually simple, which is managed by the platform on behalf of the landlord and becomes a second landlord: the platform leases the owner's house, renovates it, and rents it out as a single room, mainly providing services for young people. The core factor behind the popularity of long-term rental apartments in recent years is an important tool, which is rental loans - that is, tenants sign leases with long-term rental apartment companies and also sign loan contracts with financial institutions such as banks. Subsequently, the bank will pay the full year rent to the long-term apartment on behalf of the tenant, and the tenant will repay the financial institution on a monthly basis. The long-term apartment will pay the rent to the landlord on a quarterly basis. This was originally a good thing. The benefits of long-term rental apartments are not to mention. For landlords, it saves the trouble of rent management. For tenants, if it runs properly, it saves the trouble of paying three guarantees and one guarantee. For young people who have just started working, it can be said that after all, it saves a lot of cash flow. In fact, the topic of long-term rental apartments is discussed by Xu Jin, an economic person10When I went to "Caijing Langyan" to talk about real estate, I already talked about it. In fact, most of the industry is not optimistic about the long-term rental apartment model. In short, it was originally a good thing, but it was played as finance, and then it was ruined. 2 In the past, there have been frequent thunderstorms due to long-term rental of apartments. The eggshell thunderstorm was actually expected. The problem is that even in the worst industry, generally speaking, top companies can still play around. Where is the problem? Rent loans are still a key issue. Note that through rent loans, tenants often receive a one-time payment of one year's rent into their long-term apartment account, while long-term apartments are paid to landlords on a monthly and quarterly basis. Among them, there is a term difference and a large amount of cash flow on the books. What will the company do at this time? So what does a long-term apartment usually do with this money? Generally speaking, continue to expand the scale. ——This is also true. The financial industry around the world is engaged in businesses that utilize mismatched capital terms. This business naturally requires operators to be very cautious, and as we all know, banks are very conservative because in the business of funds, this is necessary, otherwise there will be problems. However, companies are very conservative like banks, and the risks are self-evident. Taking eggshells as an example,2020year3In the month of, the eggshell was announced2019Annual financial report. 2019In, Eggshell Apartments expanded its business to Suzhou, Wuxi, Xi'an, and Chongqing, covering the whole country13Cities. Eggshell Apartment Revenue Reached71.29100 million yuan, year-on-year growth166.5%The number of apartments held is43.83Ten thousand rooms, year-on-year growth85.4%。 However, the eggshell is still losing money and expanding.2019Throughout the year, Eggshell Apartments suffered a net loss34.37RMB100mn2018The annual net loss is RMB13.69100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase in loss margin151.06%。 And the co founder of Eggshell Apartments andCEOGao Jing stated that,2020The company still focuses on growth strategies and further expands its scale. Is this crazy?Actually not. 3 The success or failure of many business models actually depends on market size or market position. Nowadays, many people say that long-term rental apartments are not feasible because Chinese people like to buy houses, or the rent to sell ratio is too low. However, the essence of long-term rental apartments being able to rise is that it is still possible to step out of the big players, especially in companies that dominate a certain city or the country, and there is still hope. This is especially true for internet companies. For example, selling goods online may seem strange, even losing money for many years, but it has gone through. In the past, it was Alibaba, but today it is Pinduoduo. Xu Jin, an applicant for a private school, recalled that when he left Alibaba, he calculated that if he stayed for another six months, he would receive itoptionNot a few, let's calculate the losses today in the tens of millions. Why are you leaving? At that time, most people actually didn't expect to grow up that big. In fact, even internally, everyone knew that the company could continue to grow, but who could have expected it to grow so big. When long-term rental apartments catch the fast train of the capital market and expand rapidly. However, when such expansion encounters an epidemic, population mobility freezes, vacancy rates increase, the cost of holding eggshells remains high, and thunderstorms occur unexpectedly. 4 Everything is interconnected. 11In month, Ant Financial's listing is suspended, yes2020The most dramatic scene in the capital market of the year. (Regarding what Jack Ma actually said, you can follow the official account Xu Jin Economic Person or Xu Jin Finance, enter0, obtain the full text of the video) The trade war between China and the United States has become increasingly difficult to list overseas, and the future direction of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, after Ants, emphasizes the focus on hard technology. This means that many companies that innovate in their consumption models have a greatly reduced likelihood of going public - in fact, innovation in consumption is precisely the characteristic of Chinese internet companies. For industry insiders, in the past decade, the best job in China has almost been as an internet company employee, surpassing even the traditional financial industry. Industry joke, aAlibabaofP8Employees can set high standards for spouse selection. In fact, his income does indeed exceed the national average99%People. However, such company growth may soon become a thing of the past. Many internet business models may be established when capital is riding the wind and waves, and everyone can pick up a handful of capitalist wool. Nowadays, with the dissipation of capital ambitions, the business model of not making money is no longer viable, and many people may become leeks in it. Whether it'sP2PIt's still the popular online pig killing dish a while ago, or the current long-term rental apartments, and similar things will continue to happen more and more. 5 This winter, due to the eggshell issue, hundreds of thousands of young people have been displaced in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. The story of eggshells has gone through twists and turns from being listed in the bright market to being hit by lightning. Thunderstorms have emerged, and how to handle them has become a key concern for the public. What should I do? For public events, we often involuntarily enter the perspective of the weak, and many people may feel that the tenant is innocent, has paid the money, but has been driven back, and the extremists have to fight with their lives. But objectively speaking, the landlord is not a strong player and has indeed borne the losses. According to the current judicial interpretation of China, the landlord has no problem in safeguarding his rights and interests. If the platform cannot afford to buy everything, should the government endorse it? I don't think this is a good method. One size fits all is always a simple and rough approach. Moreover, this model actually encourages everyone to take moral hazard, for example, knowing that a certain product is risky, but starting because they believe that there may be endorsement. It is best to solve problems through negotiation between the platform, tenants, and landlords. Young people are also adults. Adults should learn to take responsibility for their own decisions. Of course, this generation of young people is becoming increasingly difficult. When a portion of them996When criticizing capitalists for being a social animal, an insider, or a soft class, one should also learn to mature from social violence. Many people exclaim at this moment that a grain of sand from the times weighs down on ordinary people like a mountain. Ironically, Fang Fang, who was the first to say similar things, was once called upon by an eggshell tenant to cut off his tongue, but now the tenant is also caught in the fight for rights. At this moment, the tongue is no longer there, who speaks for her? Behind this event, there are too many thought-provoking factors - the winter of entrepreneurship, financial storms, high housing prices, young life strategies, public opinion, which can almost form a subtle metaphor for this winter. We often say that first and second tier cities cannot accommodate young bodies, and third and fourth tier cities cannot accommodate young souls. So how can this generation of backwaters accommodate their own bodies and souls? I think of a party I attended before. As you all know, the valuation exceeds10A billion dollar company, also known as the Unicorn Enterprise. In the past, it used to be very fresh, but in recent years it has become less and less fresh. Some people ask, how does a unicorn die, based on a sandbox? A top investor answered, starving to death. Yes, in the era of the soft class, stock competition will become increasingly fierce, and it may become increasingly difficult to adopt a business model of running errands without making money. Unicorns can starve to death, making it even more difficult for ordinary businesses. The winter of capital has really come. |