Zhou Hao:2023The year is a connecting link between the past and the future. It is expected that the economy will2023The first quarter of the year hit the bottom and rebounded, and continued to grow from the second quarter. Under the optimistic situation, this year's growth rate may break through6%。
With the establishment of "stable growth" at the Central Economic Work Conference and the relaxation of epidemic control,2023The outlook for China's economy in has also shown significant improvement. For the Chinese economy,2023Nian is not only a year of continuity, but also a year full of hope. From the baseline scenario, we expect that China's economy will be2023The first quarter of the year bottomed out and rebounded, starting from2023Continued growth began in the second quarter of the year. Under the benchmark scenario, China's economic growth rate will decrease from2022Of3.1%Upgrade to2023Of4.8%In an optimistic scenario, the growth rate of the Chinese economy may break through this year6%。 Consumption returnCposition Despite ourGDPThe prediction is close to market consensus, but our prediction level for the total retail sales of consumer goods in society has reached6.8%, much higher than6.3%The market median. Against the backdrop of weak export prospects, the domestic market will become the main engine of China's economic growth, which means that consumption will once again lead the economic performance after the pandemic. Drive consumption back toCThe main driving force of the situation comes from the adjustment of epidemic control policies. Referring to the previous experience of other countries in dealing with the epidemic, China's reopening process faces challenges, but it can help reduce economic uncertainty in the medium to long term. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China's consumption has been relatively sluggish, and the retail sales index of consumer goods is far lower than the pre epidemic level. But from the experience of overseas markets, loosening epidemic control will provide a soil for consumer recovery. The importance of normalizing economic activities for consumption is also self-evident. The relatively high savings rate of residents will provide support for consumption growth in the post pandemic era. There has been a significant scissors gap between household deposits and loans in the past few years, where deposits have increased while loans have declined, indicating a passive increase in household savings rates. The rise in the savings rate on one hand means that households are reducing consumption, and on the other hand, it corresponds to the downward cycle of real estate. Overall, it means that Chinese households have experienced a rare "deleveraging". From this perspective, the residential sector can provide growth momentum for the economy, but only stable economic growth can support the sustained consumption power of the residential sector after "leveraging". Therefore, expanding domestic demand is not a stopgap measure. The Central Economic Conference emphasized the priority of "restoring and expanding consumption", which means that in the short term, consumption has been elevated to a more central position. stay12month14Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand（2022-2035The release of "()" has put forward higher requirements for medium to long-term consumption, which means that a complete domestic demand system has become China's medium-term growth goal and demand. Untie the "Policy Knot" of Real Estate For overseas investors, real estate is another "policy knot" that needs to be unraveled. Previously, the funding chain of real estate development enterprises had been in a tense state of operation. On the one hand, real estate sales continue to decline; On the other hand, it has become increasingly difficult for real estate developers to refinance their debts. Real estate developers, especially private enterprises, have tight cash flow and even experienced debt defaults. But the "three arrows" of the real estate industry have significantly reversed market confidence. The so-called "three arrows" refer to the three main financing channels of bonds, credit, and equity, supporting private enterprises to expand their financing channels.11month8On the th, the China Association of Interbank Market Dealers launched the "second arrow" to extend and expand the financing support tool for private enterprise bonds, which is expected to provide approximately2500Billion yuan private enterprise bond financing.11month23On the th, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission officially issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Support of the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", ensuring that11month11In media coverage16The implementation of measures to support the healthy and stable development of the real estate market (the "first arrow").11month28No., China Securities Regulatory Commission announced adjustments and optimizations in real estate equity financing5The measures announced the official landing of the "third arrow". Undoubtedly, the combination of the "Three Arrows" is self inflicted2014Year“930Since the beginning of the policy, the strongest official support signal from China for the real estate market has been received, and this round of policies also implies that the financial pressure on developers is expected to be comprehensively accelerated and resolved. From a macro perspective, resolving the credit crisis for developers is beneficial for stabilizing the "lower limit" of the financial system. It is worth mentioning that,12month16Liu He stated that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy, and it is necessary to continue improving the industry's balance sheet - further enhancing the "pillar" position of the real estate market has a turning point for investor confidence. Although the current real estate market sales are still weak, the "three arrows" will improve the balance sheets of real estate developers, leaving room for them to wait for the economic and real estate market recovery in the coming year. In the medium to long term, the aging population in China is accelerating, and the demand in the real estate market may stagnate or even decline. But as long as there is relevant policy guidance, the real estate market will still achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand. Overall, the "deleveraging" of the future real estate market will be more moderate, and the pricing of related assets will also be more pragmatic. Outside of the real estate industry, China's official focus on private enterprises and the "platform economy" has to a greater extent raised investors' expectations for the future economy. The Central Work and Economic Conference has made it clear that state-owned and private enterprises should be treated equally, and with the normalization of regulation, the state supports the platform economy to continue to play a role in promoting economic development, creating employment, and actively participating in international competition. From these two policies, the "policy knot" of overseas investors is also gradually being unraveled. How to improve total factor productivity? The economic growth target for the new year will be2023year3Announced during the "Two Sessions" of the month, although it may seem too early to make a definite prediction, we believe that this number will be5%Left and right. Due to2022The annual growth target is5.5%From the perspective of stabilizing market expectations, moderately reducing economic growth rate is a more reasonable policy choice. In order to promote economic growth, fiscal policies will also be more proactive, and we expect that2023The fiscal deficit rate will be raised toGDPof3%, higher than2022Of2.8%。 High quality development "will become a more important main line of economic development, with one of its core being to improve total factor productivity. Multiple studies have shown that since2008Since the global financial crisis in, China's total factor productivity has continued to decline. At the same time, investment has become the main engine driving economic growth. In order to achieve growth goals, local governments tend to increase investment in infrastructure, but due to the overall low efficiency of many investment projects, they are unable to maintain long-term stable cash flow. Therefore, although it can promote high economic growth in the short term, it brings long-term growth troubles. Centered around "high-quality development". The driving force of core industries is crucial. Many international studies have shown that compared to the service industry, manufacturing is more capable of driving an increase in total factor productivity. Therefore, developing high-tech industries, manufacturing industries with core competitiveness, and related industry chains are the core of future economic improvement. about2023For a year like this that connects the past and the future, paying attention to the interpretation of relevant industries and policies is essential for the layout of mid-term investment. For the exchange rate, the future trend of the RMB can be measured from two aspects: growth and interest rate spread. Technically speaking, after experiencing several rounds of gaming in the past few quarters,6.80-7.15It will become the main trading range for the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. in the future1-2Within the next quarter, the improvement in economic growth prospects will drive the strength of the RMB. But considering the probability of US dollar interest rates in the future2-3During the year, it remains at a high level, while China's overall interest rate level has limited upward space, and the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan is likely to fluctuate, making it difficult for the Chinese yuan to break out of its medium-term unilateral trend. Note: This article only represents the author's personal viewpoint Editor of this article: Xu Jin WeChatxujinft |
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