6000People gathered to watch the latest roadshow of Li Bei, the "private placement witch": do more firstAAnd then long Hong Kong stocks and commodities ...

In this round of volatile market " Private placement tycoon " Li Bei,8 Sun appeared again at the channel's roadshow.

And this roadshow attracted super 6000 Ginseng.

Li Bei, who has received high attention, has made accurate judgments on the overall situation this year, especially 9、10 The operation of the month is highly consistent with the market pace and is highly concerned by the market.

Since the beginning of this week, Li Bei has been 24 Two degrees per hour " Vocalization "，7 According to an article written by Sun Banxia Investment,A The stock is likely to have passed the lowest point of this round of decline.

And in the 8 During the road show on the day, Li Bei's market situation, retreat, opportunities, and challenges were addressed " More refined " Interpretation of.

The grinding stage can be used as

Li Bei pointed out in the roadshow that we are currently in a stage where opportunities outweigh risks, and investors need to be patient and wait for the process of volatility and bottoming out.

And she believes that,The process of shaking and grinding the bottom can be used.

Through some tools and means, it is possible to achieve a gradual accumulation of returns.

For the downward space, she judged that:"Overall, the market has limited downside potential, which should be within the 10%So the next few months will be a turbulent bottoming process "。

Go long first A thigh

For operational strategies, Li Bei has the following predictions:

Go long first A Stocks, then long Hong Kong stocks, and finally long commodities.

Why do we need to wait to long Hong Kong stocks? She believes:

Firstly, the Hong Kong stock market needs to wait for an improvement in liquidity,A Stocks are supported by a downward trend in liquidity easing interest rates, but Hong Kong stocks are not, as they are facing US dollar interest rates, which are still rising;

Secondly, the Hong Kong stock market structure is more focused on post cycle factors such as banking, real estate, and consumption A There are more early cycles in the stock structure."

China's competitiveness is improving

In Li Bei's opinion, the reason for predicting A The starting point of the long-term bull market in stocks is related to the launch of a new cycle in the manufacturing industry.

She reminds that global investors will usher in a new investment cycle in the manufacturing industry in the future, as well as the demand brought by the planning and industrialization of emerging markets, which can continue to drive the economy up.

After this round of adjustment, the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry has improved, and not only will there be a bull market in stocks but also a long-term bull market in commodities, with interest rates rising in a large cycle.

What is the logic of the new cycle?

She detailed the three main logics for launching a new cycle in the manufacturing industry:

1）The trade balance of major manufacturing powers in various countries is changingCompared with several traditional manufacturing powers in the world, Germany, France in Europe, and Japan and South Korea in Asia, our performance is relatively good.

2）The main component of Europe's current trade deficit is in the chemical industry. Due to the energy crisis overseas, some chemical plants have begun to relocate eastward.

3）China is in a very favorable position in the new round of industrial transformation. In the fields of high-end chemical materials, high-end electronic materials, as well as new energy and new energy vehicles, we are in a strong position.

Two major sources of demand

Li Bei also pointed out the following directions regarding the changes in future demand cycles:

One of the next sources of demand is urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets

Emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Myanmar are accelerating urbanization and industrialization.

Another source of demand for the next round is the global production capacity investment cycle

The growth rate of manufacturing investment in China is 2005 Year to 2011 Up to 30%Shrink to 2020 The year is negative, with a slight increase in the past two years.

The so-called Juglanda cycle, its descent cycle can be as long as 10 Its upward cycle should also last for at least a few years.

From the perspective of loans, there are signs of leading indicators. The policy is very encouraging the manufacturing industry to increase loans, so a new cycle of manufacturing has already begun.