U.S.A7Unexpectedly increasing monthly job vacancies, Powell has a long way to suppress inflation!

　　JOTLSThe report shows that this year7Each unemployed person corresponds to approximately2Job vacancies highlight labor shortages. However, the actual number of recruiters and the number of self employed employees in the report are both decreasing, indicating a hint of chill in the US labor market.

The US Department of Labor released a survey on job vacancies and labor mobility on Tuesday（JOLTS）It shows that after three months of rapid decline in job vacancies in the country,stay7The number of job vacancies on the last working day of the month is1123.9Ten thousand people, far exceeding market expectations1037.5Ten thousand people,6The value before the month is1069.8Ten thousand people. The data indicates that the US labor market remains extremely tense.

Meanwhile, the number of unemployed workers continues to decline,7Month decrease567Million people, the lowest level since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. This means that7More job vacancies than unemployed workers at the end of the month556.9Ten thousand people, almost setting a record.Each unemployed person approximately corresponds to2Job vacancies highlight labor shortages. This in turn leads to inflation,Because in the United States, inflation is located at40As the high point approaches, employers are forced to offer higher salaries to attract workers.

Although the number of job vacancies unexpectedly jumped, indicating a sustained strengthening of the labor market,But the actual number of recruiters has shrunk again,7The total number of monthly recruitment is638Ten thousand people. As shown in the following figure,12There is a significant difference between job changes and recruitment numbers in the past month, and the correlation between these two data is usually very high.

　　7Number of monthly voluntary resignations from6Of423.7Ten thousand drops to417.9Wan, this is from2021year10The lowest level since the beginning of the month.The voluntary turnover rate is2.7%, down0.1Percentage points. This indicates that the number of people who have the courage to quit their current job in hopes of receiving better compensation is significantly decreasing.

According to the data of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, during the COVID-19 epidemic period, it was cost-effective for employees to change jobs, and the average annual wage growth rate was6.7%Higher than those who remain in the original company4.9%The salary growth rate of.

　　7The total number of resignations in the month slightly decreased to593Ten thousand, the turnover rate slightly decreased to3.9%。 The number of layoffs and layoffs has remained almost unchanged, slightly below140Ten thousand.

　　JOLTSIt is currently the favorite labor market indicator for US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Federal Reserve officials closely monitor JOLTSData, looking for signs of tightness in recruitment. This data will be released one month behind the non farm employment report. This Friday, the United States will release8Monthly non farm employment report.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that the US labor market is extremely tense. However, he warned that continued interest rate hikes may lead to economic growth below trend levels, leading to some weakness in the labor market. But he believes that such an outcome lays the foundation for restoring price stability and maximizing long-term employment and price stability.

Finance and Economics BlogZerohedgeCommenting on it,Judging from the number of job vacancies, the US labor market is tight. However, based on the actual number of recruiters and the number of independent resignations,JOLTSThe labor market reflected in the data continues the weak trend of previous months.

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