Winter is approaching Will Europe burn firewood for heating this year?

      Edge of loss of control

As the Ukrainian crisis continues, the energy shortage situation in Europe is becoming increasingly severe. Following the restart of coal-fired power in many countries, the British have even started hoarding charcoal for winter heating

Is Europe's energy use going back to ancient times this winter?

　　Many European countries take the energy "turning back" path

As the energy crisis continues to rage, many European countries have chosen to go back on this issue.

Some countries have turned their attention to coal-fired power plants that were previously planned to be phased out, announcing the restart of coal-fired power plants to save more natural gas and meet winter energy needs. Germany has always led the global clean energy industry, but in order to alleviate the pressure on energy expenditure, many households in the country have now started hoarding and buying coal that they have long abandoned.

Poland, as a major coal power producer in Europe, also had to take precautions. Due to concerns about fuel shortages in winter, Polish people have recently formed a long queue in front of a coal mine to buy coal for the winter.

The UK is even more distressed. A survey shows that,20%The above British families will have to completely turn off the heating during winter, and some primary and secondary schools even require students to wear more sweaters to keep warm. At the same time, some British people began hoarding charcoal for winter heating.

Finland has widely called for "energy conservation" and plans to launch a nationwide energy-saving campaign with the theme of "reducing one degree" this autumn and winter, including driving less, walking or cycling more, reducing indoor heating temperature, and shortening bathing time, to encourage energy conservation.

　　"Out of control" energy crisis

Although the rare summer heat in European history has gone, the coming winter has not only left Europe with an end to the energy crisis, but also seems to be on the verge of "losing control".

On the one hand, the winter heating period is the peak season for electricity consumption in Europe, and energy demand will greatly increase; On the other hand, energy supply is becoming increasingly tight. Now, the EU's coal embargo on Russia has officially come into effect, and Russia is gradually reducing the gas transmission volume of the "Beixi No.1" natural gas pipeline. European energy security is in jeopardy.

More importantly, since the beginning of this year, European electricity prices and natural gas prices have all risen together, and the growing concern is driving energy prices to soar again.

According to data from the European Energy Exchange, on Monday this week, the electricity prices delivered by Germany next year - the European benchmark electricity price - have increased by nearly7%, reaching1050euroEach megawatt hour is the first breakthrough in history1000euro. Last Friday, the electricity prices delivered by France next year reached1130The euro per megawatt hour is also the first time in history to exceed1000The Euro barrier. And by moving the calendar back to last year, the electricity prices in Germany and France were still less than90Euro per megawatt hour.

Local time26On the same day, the UK energy regulatory agency announced that it will10The annual energy Price ceiling of ordinary British households will be significantly increased from August80%。 The soaring energy prices have brought a huge burden to the British people,London Mayor Sadik KhanIf the government does not take immediate measures, the UK will face a "national disaster".

　　What is the path ahead?

The prospects for Europe to solve the energy crisis are not optimistic. At present, concerns about Russia's complete cessation of gas supply are enveloping the entire Europe. stayYang Hui, Chief Analyst of Huachuang Securities Energy and ChemicalIt seems that regardless of whether Russia will stop supplying gas to Europe this winter, European countries will definitely prepare their warehouses according to the standards without Russian supply.

Yang Hui analyzed that the global climate anomaly is particularly evident this year, and the scorching heat has actually exacerbated people's concerns about the cold winter. But the continuous decline of the Rhine River water level not only affects Europe's external transportation, but also affects the progress of European raw material stocking.

As Europe stops importing coal to Russia and 'North Stream 1' suspends gas supply3Heaven, Europe's energy reserves must rely on coal transported overseascrude oilandLNGThe risk of the Rhine River being cut off and soaringLNGShip prices are pushing the panic of natural gas scarcity to the limit Yang Hui said.

The analysis points out that the current energy crisis in Europe is intensifying, and all countries must unite to take measures to limit the rise of electricity prices and control the chaos of the energy market as soon as possible.

Winter is approaching, and in order to ensure energy supply, Europe has to make sacrifices now, shifting more from "energy cleanliness" to "energy security". The return of coal and charcoal to the European energy sequence will inevitably lead to significant carbon emissions. It is uncertain whether Europe can successfully weather this crisis, but there is no doubt that its low-carbon path is long and obstructed.