Yan Yixin:9.4晚评原油触底反弹，晚间操作建议

gold在消息面影响下跳空高开10个点，反观

crude oil

，今日开盘平稳，整个白盘波动在47.15-47.55之间，这也很好理解，朝鲜既不是产油国，又不是什么交通要塞，不管其国情如何，对整个原油市场也不会有太大影响，所以原油虽然有上行趋势，但还是没有因此上行破位。个人认为目前油价上涨的主要提振因素还是哈维飓风，虽然哈维降级为热带风暴，在侵入内陆时势头有所减弱，但风暴导致逾40人死亡，并带来有史以来最大的洪灾，致使至少44010000 barrels/日炼油产能关闭。大约四分之一的美国炼油业关停，在劳动节周末前激发了对燃料油供应短缺的担忧，也令炼厂对原油的需求蒙上阴云。裂解价差，即汽油和原油价差走阔。油价因此大幅上涨，连续两日收大阳柱。

此外，笔者认为OPEC的两个最大产油国承诺将加强减产，以支撑油价，也将给油价上行提供消息面支撑。

技术面来看，原油亚盘的走势并不是一个非常强势的行情，由于美盘提前休市，所以短线日内行情极有可能走震荡行情，原油日线连续突破MA5Daily moving average andMA10日均线，收复前两日跌势，周线收得倒锤线，日线形态有望企稳再度上涨，小时线布林收口陆续缩小，给予了较为明显的区间，短线走强回落止步45.6一线，行情开始转为强，4小时来看，目前油价在给出短期压力位置附近震荡运行，macd于零轴上方持续放量，sto死叉勾头向下修复，4小时来看原油属于弱势震荡，但是下跌的动能不足，只要油价还是企稳47.0上方，那么油价整体还是倾向多头发展的。总的来说，原油多头之势已经显现，操作上以低位反弹为主！

Suggestions for crude oil operation:

上方反弹47.6Nearby empty orders enter, stop loss48.0Target Look47.0nearby

Don't always think that the market has let you down. In this market, no one lives easier than others, and simple transactions are charming;Often, many market trends are like this, and when you deliberately pursue them, they will run very fast;When you abandon superficial mundane thoughts, focus on strategy, plan, and focus on every wave of market trends, some profits can be easily obtained.

The road to investment is long, we need to learn to be indifferent. The technology and news in the market are often contradictory, requiring less talk and more listening. No matter how hard you put in today, tomorrow's fallen leaves will still drift down. The market is inherently unpredictable, and impermanence is a norm in the capital market. Learn to get used to it.KThe rise and fall of the line quickly pass by with the ticking sound of the clock.

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