7.31午评：多头持续爆发，原油上破50大关口将继续做多

　　Guided Reading


　　走过的是时间，看过的是行情，尝过的是盈与亏，回味的是得与失，沉淀的是经验，成就的是境界。善战者，无赫赫战功！市场走势，千变万化，与时俱进，跟随趋势，方能立足。一朵鲜花撑不起美丽的春天，同样一个人的力量也改变不了市场走势，只需在机会来临的时候踏上开往胜利的列车，即可得到我们想要的利润。

　　crude oilMessage surface


　　上周油市迎来多项重磅利好，原油多头同样经历了他们的“狂欢周”。周五，NYMEX 9Monthly deliveryWTIcrude oilfuturesrise in price0.67USD or1.4%, to49.71dollar/桶，周内累计上涨达8.6%；ICE 9Brent crude oil futures prices for monthly delivery have also risen1.03USD or2%, to52.52dollar/桶，上周累计上涨了9.3%。两油均创下了自截至去年12month2日当周以来的最大单周百分比涨幅。


　　上周，油市的好消息几乎占据了每日的头条。OPECAnd nonOPEC产油国周一在圣彼得堡召开会议，会上各国除了表达对油价未来的信心之外，还提出了切实的解决方案：一、沙特将在8月大幅削减产量和出口量；二、未来将力推减产执行率达到100%；三、可能会讨论延长减产至明年3Month.


　　除此之外，此前传得沸沸扬扬的美国页岩油行业债务危机似乎有爆发的迹象。阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko）公司周一公布的财报显示，该公司计划将2017年资本支出削减3亿美元，康菲石油（COPN）则在周四宣布2017年资本支出削减4%，这也是美国其他主要页岩油生产商采取的策略。如果这一计划实施，页岩油未来的勘探、开采活动将受到很大影响。


　　抛去预期的提振作用，数据也为油价上涨提供了实实在在的支撑。周三早间的API原油库存骤减1020Ten thousand barrels, for2016year9月以来的最大降幅；晚间的EIA四大库存全数录得下滑，且原油库存减少720.8万桶远超预期，同时这也是美国原油库存连续第四周下滑，似乎OPEC长期不渝的减产终于收获了成效。另外，美国原油产量也开始减少，不知是否页岩油行业债务危机的开端。截至7month28During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased2Seat to766座，不过整个7Monthly increase only10Seat.


　　神指综合来看原油本周消息面上还是一个大幅利多情绪，中长线上建议做一个多单布局；另外8month7日欧佩克将在阿联酋就减产效率召开会议，届时又是一次对原油冲击的考验，需重点关注。

　　Analysis of crude oil market


The trend of crude oil last week was also constantly positive, with oil prices rising step by step. Since the end of last Monday's meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, crude oil has skyrocketed like a stimulant. Firstly, this meeting has taken action to limit Nigeria's oil production and called on some member countries to strengthen their implementation of production cuts, with the aim of helping to clear excess international crude oil inventories to support oil prices. Secondly, it isAPIas well asEIACrude oil inventories have plummeted, and oil prices are waiting for an opportunity to rise. Finally, the sustained decline of the US index has boosted oil prices. As for the trend of oil prices this week, the market has seen many headlines. Under the stimulation of various positive factors last week, oil prices have almost all ended with a physical bullish candlestick (Wednesday)EIAExcept for stimulating the market, long positions are strong enough. If this good momentum can be maintained, there will be further reasons for oil prices to rise, and the upper limit may touch50The US dollar level and even52USD.


　　原油今天早间市场低开高走，上行至50美元的关口回调，目前50美元关口的压制，美原油目前日线上看，5Daily moving average10Daily moving average20The daily moving average runs upwards,KLine shape located at5Above the daily moving average,macd指标开口方向向上，底部红色量能没有明显的变化，4小时走势图上看，5Daily moving average,10Daily moving average20Daily moving average40The daily moving average runs upwards,macd指标开口方向向上，底部量能缩量，综合起来看，美原油多头依旧强势，建议先看回调之后再做多。

　Recommendations for crude oil operations


　　短线策略1, falling back49.70一线企稳做多，目标50.05, hold against the limit;


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