熊庆军：7.31黄金原油走势与布局，本周关注非农

preface---------
The most important thing in investing2Point: Firstly, it is necessary to understand the analysis of a market trend; The second is to understand risk control, and as an investor, one should have a good mentality and correct investment concepts; Positive people see an opportunity in every crisis, while negative people see some kind of crisis in every opportunity; Faced with volatile market conditions, we must seize every opportunity. Seizing an opportunity is equivalent to seizing tomorrow!
gold中长线如何布局？
Last Friday（7month28The United States has released a series of mixed data, makingNYMEX8Monthly delivery of goldfuturesrise in price8.40USD or0.7%, to1268.40dollar/Ounces, the cumulative increase last week1.1%, rising for the third consecutive week;9月交割的白银期货价格上涨12.2Cents or0.7%, to16.698美元，在上周的整体交易中累计上涨了1.5%。
上周贵金属继续走高，主要受益于美国国会和美联储的表现。周初，白宫的政治风波逐渐淡化，曾导致金价下跌，但是周二众议院通过了制裁俄罗斯的法案，使双方关系再度紧张。同日，特朗普医改法案在参议院的投票表决宣告失败，此前他曾表示要通过医改再进行税改，这次失败使得他接下来的政策部署显得更加遥遥无期，市场对其刺激政策能否推行的预期偏向负面，为金价提供了支撑。

Remove and click here to add image captions and textThe shining appearance of the Federal Reserve on Thursday propelled the rise of gold. The Federal Reserve released early Thursday morning7In the monthly meeting statement, some key wording has changed, especially on the issue of inflation, acknowledging that the decline in inflation is a long-term phenomenon rather than being influenced by short-term factors as previously mentioned. This statement is seen by the market as a "dove like" signal, causing gold to quickly break through1260The US dollar barrier.
The next day, we will release the actual results of the second quarter in the United StatesGDPRecorded initial value of annualized quarterly rate2.6%It meets the expectations of all parties and is much higher than the previous value, but it has been proven that this is not enough to offset the impact of the Federal Reserve's "pigeon" sound. Gold continued to rise after a slight decline. Shortly thereafter, news of North Korea's missile test pushed last week's upward trend to a climax. On the evening of that day, North Korea conducted its second test launch of a ballistic missile capable of flying to the United States mainland, triggering a final frenzy among bulls, and gold prices soared to1270Above the US dollar.
庆军综合来看，上周黄金的上涨主要由于美联储的支撑，而本周五的非农数据更是主导着金价整个八月的最大数据之一，周初中线上可以做一个多单布局，当然重点还是围绕非农，中长线布局以非农数据决定去向。
Gold Market Analysis
黄金在上周突破1260后如期测试到1270的阻力点，而1270的阻力也是接下来市场的一个关键节点，预期和上周一样，再加上本周五非农数据的影响，周初破位1270阻力的可能性不大，震荡修正或许将是主格调，而和上周周初的下跌一样，调整和修正的目的只有一个：那就是为突破阻力位1270打好基础!所以调整为辅低多为主让是贯彻交易的核心!而下方关键支撑无疑将是1258区域的支撑，一方面是周五盘尾回撤的低点，同时也是以1227为低点的上升趋势线的支撑；
From the daily chart, the overall presentation of goldVThe trend of type reversal,KThe overall trend of the line shows a bullish arrangement, and the upward trend has been continuing. According to the current trend, gold is expected to impact6Monthly high point1295On the front line, from the perspective of the Bollinger system, Bollinger operates with an open mouth,K线运行于布林上轨附近，目前受到1270A brief suppression on the front line, with a slight correction of the decline;4Looking at the hourly chart, the moving average system shows a wave like rise,5Daily moving average10The daily moving average runs with a golden cross, and the Bollinger belt runs upwards with an open mouth, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe red kinetic energy column gradually increases in volume,KDJThe golden cross runs with positive technical indicators and a clear bullish trend. Taking into account the recent market fundamentals and the weakening of the US dollar, both are bullish on gold, so gold will further rise in the future and is expected to break through this week1280一线。所以做单方面我们理应顺势而为，回调做多为主。下方关注1262Frontline support, attention from above1280First line pressure level.
Gold operation suggestions
1Callback1262一线做多，目标1270Above, stop loss1257
2First touch above1280一线做空，目标1264Stop loss1283
crude oil中长线做多
上周油市迎来多项重磅利好，原油多头同样经历了他们的“狂欢周”。周五，NYMEX9Monthly deliveryWTIRising crude oil futures prices0.67USD or1.4%, to49.71dollar/桶，周内累计上涨达8.6%；ICE9Brent crude oil futures prices for monthly delivery have also risen1.03USD or2%, to52.52dollar/桶，上周累计上涨了9.3%。两油均创下了自截至去年12month2日当周以来的最大单周百分比涨幅。
上周，油市的好消息几乎占据了每日的头条。OPECAnd nonOPEC产油国周一在圣彼得堡召开会议，会上各国除了表达对油价未来的信心之外，还提出了切实的解决方案：一、沙特将在8月大幅削减产量和出口量；二、未来将力推减产执行率达到100%；三、可能会讨论延长减产至明年3Month.
除此之外，此前传得沸沸扬扬的美国页岩油行业债务危机似乎有爆发的迹象。阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko）公司周一公布的财报显示，该公司计划将2017年资本支出削减3亿美元，康菲石油（COPN）则在周四宣布2017年资本支出削减4%，这也是美国其他主要页岩油生产商采取的策略。如果这一计划实施，页岩油未来的勘探、开采活动将受到很大影响。
Remove and click here to add image captions and text抛去预期的提振作用，数据也为油价上涨提供了实实在在的支撑。周三早间的API原油库存骤减1020Ten thousand barrels, for2016year9月以来的最大降幅；晚间的EIA四大库存全数录得下滑，且原油库存减少720.8万桶远超预期，同时这也是美国原油库存连续第四周下滑，似乎OPEC长期不渝的减产终于收获了成效。另外，美国原油产量也开始减少，不知是否页岩油行业债务危机的开端。截至7month28During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased2Seat to766座，不过整个7Monthly increase only10Seat.
综合来看原油本周消息面上还是一个大幅利多情绪，中长线上建议做一个多单布局；另外8month7日欧佩克将在阿联酋就减产效率召开会议，届时又是一次对原油冲击的考验，需重点关注。
Analysis of crude oil market
原油上周走势也是利好不断，油价节节攀升。自上周一俄罗斯圣彼得堡会议结束之后原油就像是吃了“兴奋剂”一样飙涨。首先是本次会议采取了限制尼日利亚石油产出的行动，并呼吁一些成员国加强减产的执行力度，目的是帮助清除过剩的国际原油库存以支撑油价。其次就是APIas well asEIACrude oil inventories have plummeted, and oil prices are waiting for an opportunity to rise. Finally, the sustained decline of the US index has boosted oil prices. As for the trend of oil prices this week, the market has seen many headlines. Under the stimulation of various positive factors last week, oil prices have almost all ended with a physical bullish candlestick (Wednesday)EIAExcept for stimulating the market, long positions are strong enough. If this good momentum can be maintained, there will be further reasons for oil prices to rise, and the upper limit may touch50The US dollar level and even52USD.
Technical aspect4小时收线阳柱，布林带三轨缩口区间压缩。而指标macdMaintain a high level of golden cross bonding and vibration, with agile indicatorsstoContinue to repair upwards. therefore4There is still a possibility of continuing to rise when one is young. At present, the upper rail is being suppressed49.7一线。支撑在均线MA5andMA10粘合位附近49.1-2；小时线目前蜡烛图运行至布林带外围，并且小时线经过了长时间的横盘整理，所以爆发的幅度比较大，而且目前小时线macd刚刚金叉打开，灵动指标sto勾头向上，因此短期原油并没有见顶。结合周线和日线的费波拉契回调线判断上方压制在50附近。综合来看本周继续看一个上涨，操作上以做多为主。
Crude oil operation suggestions
1Suggest callback49.0Long nearby, stop loss48.6, Objective50.0Nearby;
2Suggestions50.0Short and stop losses in nearby light positions50.4, Objective49.2Near.
Message:
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