7.28Can OPEC and the United States both benefit and short crude oil? What should I do if an empty ticket is covered?

　　crude oilLatest news


Crude oilfuturesThe price closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday, reaching its highest closing price in two months. The positive impact of the decline in US crude oil inventories is still fermenting, while Saudi Arabia and othersOPECCore member countries have also expressed firm confidence in stabilizing the oil market, but the rebound of the US dollar has partially limited the upward space for oil prices.


　　WTI 9Monthly crude oil futures closed higher on Thursday0.29USD, increase0.59%Report49.04dollar/Bucket5month30The highest closing price since the beginning of the day. Brent9Monthly crude oil futures up0.52USD, increase1.02%Report51.49dollar/Barrel, reaching a six week high. Since the beginning of this week, the price increase of American oil cloth has reached approximately7%。

　　近期石油产业亮红灯，产油公司纷纷削减支出。继阿纳达科石油公司等后，康菲石油（COPN）Become the latest company to reduce capital expenditures. The company announced on Thursday2017Annual capital expenditure reduction4%Plan to spend this year48Billion US dollars, lower than previously estimated50USD100mn Although some assets have been sold recently,COPNThe published report indicates that quarterly losses have tripled. Hess（Hess）And the Norwegian National Oil Company（Statoil ASA）On Thursday, it was also announced that due to low crude oil prices, the drilling budget has been reduced in the near future. Norwegian National Oil Company2017The exploration budget expenditure will be reduced annually13%Hess announced that production will decrease4%ExxonMobil, the world's top and third oil producing company（Exxon Mobil）And Chevron（Chevron）The quarterly results will be announced on Friday.


　　在本周一沙特呼吁OPECAfter oil producing countries further reduced production to alleviate oversupply, Kuwait also followed in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates and promised to further reduce production. The UAE Oil Minister stated on Tuesday that the country will be committed to fulfilling its share of production cuts. From this year onwards9Starting from the month, Abu Dhabi National Oil CompanyMurban、Dasas well asUpper ZakumCrude oil exports will decrease10%Meanwhile, the state-owned Kuwait Oil Company also announced on Wednesday that it has reached an agreement with its American clients to lower its2017Annual contract sales. according toIEAPreviously, Kuwait's data13.110000 barrels/The average compliance rate of daily production reduction commitments is98%The United Arab Emirates has promised to reduce production13.910000 barrels/The performance rate is only54%。


　　从本周一开始，原油市场的利好消息不断：从沙特宣布8Monthly export restrictions, significant budget cuts by shale oil companies in the United States, and the latestAPIandEIAData shows a significant drop in US oil inventories, and another positive factor for oil prices could be the political stalemate between Venezuela and the United States. According to foreign media reports on Thursday, the US Treasury Department announced its sanctions against Venezuela13Sanctions will be imposed on current and former senior officials, and further sanctions will be threatened against the Venezuelan government for advancing the Constituent Assembly elections. Barclays believes that even if the United States only implements a certain degree of new sanctions, or only discusses the possibility of broader sanctions, it will become a catalyst for Venezuela's debt default, which will put upward pressure on oil prices.


Analysis of crude oil market


　　本周原油大涨之势我在周末分析中已经提过，上周末提到周一欧佩克减产会议是本周最大市场动向，果然本次会议成功的推动油价的上涨，在周一周二两个交易日已经录得两根大阳，另外收APIas well asEIADue to data impact, Wednesday and Thursday will also receive consecutive payments2Yang, currently at the daily level4Lianyang, oil prices from45The US dollar has risen to49The US dollar, last weekend's analysis mentioned that crude oil is expected to rise this week50The US dollar threshold is currently within reach of the target1The distance between the US dollar and the Bollinger Bands is probably only a matter of time. Technically, the Bollinger Bands are currently showing a trend of expanding, with prices falling below the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands after rising to the upper limit,MA5The daily moving average continues to rise10The daily moving average forms a golden cross and continuously diverges upwards, with each cycle's moving average showing a bullish trend,KThe line runs directly on5，10Above the daily moving average, the fast and slow lines on the attached indicators are rising on both tracks,MACDThe red kinetic energy column shows a significant increase again; At the hourly level, there is also a trend of multiple bullish lines rising, and there is no short-term suppression above. Overall, crude oil's strategy for today is still to go long. Without obvious suppression above, it is not recommended to go high.

Recommendations for crude oil operations


　　策略回落48.50Frontline multiple entry, stop loss0.3, Objective49.24, breaking the limit and holding


　　原油空单解套


　　原油持有空单者不管什么位置，在神指看来都不是很理想，从中长线位置来看，原油有望突破50关口，向55美元进发；从短距离来看，原油48.50一线支撑比较明显，如果资金套的不是很大，个人是建议直接出局的，如果想采取割肉的手法，那么48.50这个位置是一个比较重要的关口，如果行情有机会下行到此，可以现行减仓一半，倘若没法继续下行，单子全部出局，若继续下行，还可以看几十个点的利润，当然也是很有限的，具体解套策略联系神指本人进行实时指导。


　　神指寄语

　　投资犹如下棋，棋艺高者能看出五步，七步甚至十几步，而棋艺低者只能看出两三步，高者顾大局，谋大势，不以一子一地为重，以最终赢棋为目标，低者则寸土必争，只为争一时之需，结果频频受困。趋势，一定要有长远眼光，投资，一定要有长远规划，而布局技巧是成功的关键。做投资，如果你的能力不足以支撑你现在的状况，那么你需要一位军师助你操控大局，一次选择，就是一次转折！一次尝试，就是一次机会。


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