资本散帮：纵观全球经济视角

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Preface: Those who do not plan for the overall situation are not enough to plan for a single territory. Looking at the world, they aim for a thousand miles.
笔者：前中国财经研究院研究员孟宪骏
整理编辑:孟宪骏

As the most important investment market in China, where is the path of the stock market?
And what will happen next to the real estate market that affects everyone?
How much do we know about China's macroeconomic situation and do we have some understanding of the global market?
在下文当中我们将一一为大家表述。
one.equity market
2008Since the beginning of the year, the global financial crisis has been a mess, and time has passed9What is the current global stock market situation in the year?
Let's first take a look at the performance of the US stock market, as shown in the following chart (Dow Jones Index):
2008The stock market crash brought about by the year2013After being repaired, the continuous growth of cattle is still reaching new highs.
The strong rise of the US stock marketcrude oilThere are mainly three points:
1The return of manufacturing to the United States supports the resurgence of the real economy, which drives finance and drives the stock market up;
2、美元强势，导致美元资产的需求加大，不断有游资涌入美国进入股市，推倒股市上涨；
3The economic index is strengthening, and the unemployment rate has been continuously decreasing, resulting in a positive economic outlook and an increase in the United States

In the global stock market, besides the United States, Germany, known for its pragmatic spirit,2008After the financial crisis in, Germany rapidly rose, which goes without saying. We believe that we also know from the news that Germany's influence in the European Union is increasing, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of its economic strength.

In some of the most important countries, stock market indices can recover to08Before the financial crisis, Japan and South Korea were also at the same level.
Nikkei Index

Seoul Composite Index, South Korea

In the global stock market, developing Asian countries such as Thailand and the Philippines have started a long bull run.

However, countries such as France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, which performed worse, also saw their stock markets rebound to close to08The level before the annual crisis.
We cannot help but ask, what is the intention of our Chinese stock market?
The stock market barometer, according to Dow theory, expresses that the stock market reflects a country's economy, and the market will digest all the information. In this situation, when comparing with foreign countries, we cannot help but ask, what is wrong with China's economy?

Since the reform and opening up, our economy has made remarkable progress, which can be said to be unparalleled in the world and has attracted worldwide attention. However, in the process of economic development, there are stages of start-up, growth, maturity, and decline.
And our current economy in China has undoubtedly gone through a period of hot and dry growth, developing like a mature period. However, it is difficult to truly enter the mature period, just like a determined young person who truly steps into society and wants to make a groundbreaking career, it is not so easy.
From the perspective of national policies, the Belt and Road, state-owned enterprise reform and supply side reform are policy needs10It takes years or even decades to implement and carry out.
These logics can be felt from real life: it is really difficult to do industry nowadays, which shows that it is average2014The Mad Cow launched in the year has no industrial foundation, pure fragmentation is like a drumming of funds, and in the end, no one takes over, leading to a collapse!
A very simple truth is that when people have money, a natural bull market comes; when people have no money, a bear market comes.
Do we have any money now?
What can be confirmed now is that Chinese residents currently have no extra money in their hands compared to their loans after offsetting their savings.
You can take a look at the following three charts. MA's money supply continues to decrease year-on-year, while the deposit balance of financial institutions continues to decline, while loans are increasing.

And we can feel it,2016Since the beginning of the year, various types of loan institutions, online loans, and bank loans have emerged, which I believe you can feel in your daily life, whether it is telephone sales loans, or advertising, soft articles, and promotion of various online loans.
After the stock market crash just now, real estate has arrived. Under the policy of destocking, real estate prices have risen in competition, forming a huge reservoir of funds for real estate. All the funds have gone to real estate, and more people are taking loans to buy houses. This is the problem. The money has been used to buy houses, and the market is short of money. Various types of loan calls are flooding in.
And as loans continue to increase and deposits continue to be consumed, how can future economic problems be solved? And what does the escape of real estate tycoons such as Li Ka shing and Wang Jianlin from Chinese real estate imply?
Are you still planning to buy a house now? Waiting for no one to take over means that the housing price has reached its peak!
I believe that housing prices in first - and second tier cities will not easily fall, because like some stocks in the stock market, there is a national team dragging prices. However, housing prices in second - and third tier cities have a history of multiple collapses in Chinese history. You can check this on Baidu yourself. Do you already have friends around you who are defending their rights in store and apartment investments?
Therefore, in front of China, there are at least two major problems that need to be solved:
1.The revitalization of China's real economy transformation.
2.When will the foam of high housing prices burst?
From these aspects, the bear market in the Chinese stock market is far from over, and10The annual global economic crisis may already be on its way.
Therefore, we must be aware that the current Chinese stock market is in a bear market, and every participation can only be a structural rebound.
Real estate, on the other hand, doesn't have to worry about the rise and fall of housing prices for first-time buyers. They are all for living, but those who invest in real estate should think twice before making a move. This process is relatively long, just like in the movie "Big Short" in the United States, where several geniuses on Wall Street who short the US real estate market also lurked for several years before witnessing it2008The global financial crisis brought them10Double returns.

And recently, we haveAThe stock market, I believe some people are starting to discover opportunities, and that is the non-ferrous sector.
此前在公众号上也是有给大家推荐了【北方稀土】、【四通新材】两只股票。资本散帮：2017year7month14日【选股思路】
Capital dispersal:2017/7/5 早盘总结+选股思路

The strength of the colored plate is not unfounded, let's take a lookCBRindex
RecentCBRThe index is constantly strengthening, which means that metal raw materials are in a process of rising prices. ThereforeAThe concept stocks of rising prices in the stock market, as well as the non-ferrous sector, have performed relatively well.

Let's take a look at the correlation between commodity indices and the world economy.
2008The annual financial crisis broke out,goldSilver and other metals have a hard inflation attribute, and gold and silver have started a skyrocketing pattern
After the economy recovers, the currency returns to its value, and gold and silver enter a bear market
But currently, the commodity index has returned2008At the bottom of the year, this is an opportunity!

At present, the prices of metals such as gold, silver, brass, and aluminum are gradually rebounding and rising.

Therefore, at present, choosing commodity investment is a good opportunity!!


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