Su Ye's Discussion on Gold: Gold breaks through the range and falls significantly,EIALido crude oil sword finger50

The early morning Federal Reserve's interest rate discussion drovegoldThe new rise, this time without raising interest rates, is almost everyone's firm belief that only12%Support rate,FOMCAnnounce that the original interest rates will remain unchanged, and the main culprit affecting the decline of gold will be reducing the balance sheet. Plan9The implementation will only begin in the month, perhaps earlier, but at least for now, there is no need or expectation for gold to fall. Although the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in the second half of this year, it is expected that the US economy will ensure the speed of future rate hikesFOMCGradually raise interest rates. On the balance sheet side, the Federal Reserve stated that it will relatively quickly shrink its balance sheet and will still reinvest its holdings. The author Su Ye believes that the tone of the Federal Reserve's wording this time is slightly dovish, which will boost the rise of gold in the short term. What about the subsequent rise of gold? The author believes that there is still room for further increase in gold prices in the later stage. Firstly, last week's rise in gold was mainly caused by Trump's healthcare reform and the "Russia Gate". However, for the later stage, Su Ye believes that if Trump does not change his attitude and policy in the future, this political crisis may continue; Once again, due to the increasing geopolitical risk aversion; Finally, the technical side broke through the volatility and ushered in a breakthrough. However, don't get too excited either. Although I think there is a lot of room for improvement in the later stage, it's coming soon8The month is not agricultural, and we will further analyze the specific details in the future.
　　
Analysis of Gold Technology:

　　

On the daily chart, a large bullish candlestick rebounded from the previous two days of decline and hit the upper position of the Bollinger Bands, but it cannot conceal the bullish trend of gold. At present, the Bollinger Bands are running with a slight opening, and the upward space above has not been further opened, but there is a possibility of further upward rupture at any time. At this time, the gold price is running at1261Nearby, in the short term, the upper part of the Bollinger Belt will be affected by the upper track1263Zone suppression, further looking towards6month15Rigao is located at1266One area is suppressed, and the lower part is affected by5Daily moving average at1253Belt support, further support level looks towards10Daily moving average at1243Location, attached imageMACDThe bullish trend is showing a forced increase in volume again, with gold prices rebounding and rising; Over the course of four hours, the gold price briefly broke through the two major resistance positions of the upper and middle Bollinger Bands, with no signs of a pullback for the bulls. The downside is affected by5/10Daily moving average at1250The position is supported by a golden cross, and it is expected that there is still an opportunity for gold prices to rise.
　　
In summary, the next day's gold breakthrough1250/1255The resistance level will be converted into a support level, and if it continues to climb today, the top position of the range will be converted into a support level. Gold is expected to once again test the thousand three level above. At this time, gold remains volatile at a high level due to the impact of the news, and the author Su Ye suggests a pullback and entering the long order market.
　　
Golden Strategy: Suggest a pullback1259Nearby, stop loss1254, Objective1266-68。
　　
Analysis of Silver Technology:

　　

Looking at the hourly chart, silver stopped falling yesterday16.29The US dollar has slightly risen, but the US market still maintains its opening16.45The fluctuation of the US dollar, the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the start of silver breaking through new highs, with silver remaining at a low level for the day with a focus on long trades, as shown in the hourly chartMA5AndMA10Glue to form a golden cross and run in a bullish trend, constantly testing high positions. Yesterday given16.35The multiple orders in the US dollar are currently profitable. Hour chart indicatorsMACDThe upward momentum of the red trend is gradually becoming stronger,RSIThe upward trend of indicators,KDThe indicators cross and rise,4Looking at the hourly chart, silver is continuous5A period of upward trend touching4hourBOLLThe position of the upper rail.MA5AndMA10Adhesion forms a golden cross upward trend, with silver trading mainly at low levels and multiple orders during the day.
　　
In summary, during the gold pullback, silver still chose to be strong, and then followed this adjustment for a period of time yesterday. In addition, since the bullish uptrend has not been completed, do not guess the top in the short term like gold. Just follow the daily upward trend and go long step by step. Now, the hourly upward trend is good, and it has already stepped back in the early week16.2-3Rising, in the short term, it should further move towards17Stay aligned, so continue to go long with small callbacks and try to set stop losses as much as possible16.2-3Below, if the market turns downward and falls below the previous low point, it indicates that the upward trend has ended.
　　
Silver Strategy: Suggest falling back to16.5-6Nearby, stop loss16.3, Objective17Near.
　　
Speaking of this weekcrude oilThe trend can be described as rising step by step, with continuous positive news. Since the end of the St. Petersburg meeting in Russia on Monday this week, crude oil has skyrocketed like a stimulant. Firstly, this meeting has taken action to limit Nigeria's oil production and called on some member countries to strengthen their implementation of production cuts, with the aim of helping to clear excess international crude oil inventories to support oil prices. Secondly, it isAPIas well asEIACrude oil inventories have plummeted, and oil prices are waiting for an opportunity to rise. Finally, the sustained decline of the US index has boosted oil prices. As for the trend of oil prices in the later stage, the market has seen many headlines, and Professor Su, the author, is no exception. Under the stimulation of various positive factors this week, oil prices have almost all ended with a physical bullish candlestick (Wednesday)EIAExcept for stimulating the market, long positions are strong enough. If this good momentum can be sustained, then crude oil prices will return50The big level is just a matter of time. However, while paying attention to bullish positions, one should also be cautious of bearish counterattacks. The author Su Ye reminds everyone to focus on changes in crude oil inventories andOPECThe situation of major oil producing countries reducing production.
　　
Technical analysis of crude oil:

　　

As of now, on the daily chart, crude oilKTriple consecutive bullish streak, with strong oil prices breaking the upper limit48.4The nearby pressure level, spatiotemporal transition, has now become a support level, below5Wearing on a Japanese golden cross10Daily moving averages, and their respective47.2and46.8There is a support position nearby, and the middle rail extends to46.3Nearby, the suppression position above can be viewed towards50The US dollar has reached a high level; On the four hour chart, after a terrifying ten consecutive bullish days, oil prices began to fluctuate and accumulate momentum, and thenEIAOnce again erupted, the Bollinger Bands were extremely open, and the upper track extended to49.3Near resistance level, looking towards short-term support level5Daily moving average at48.43Location,10Daily moving average at48Position, further down30The daily moving average adhesive middle track47.1The position intersects at a point,macdThe golden cross of the fast and slow lines is moving upwards, and the upward movement energy column is continuously increasing in volume.
　　
In summary, oil prices have fallen from low levels this week45.4Boosted by many positive factors, the position has climbed to a new high in nearly two months, breaking through the upper volatile area with a short-term bottoming and ushering in a new round of market trends. In my opinion, Su Ye believes that this round of top and bottom conversion can be placed at last week's high point47.7One area, with a focus on the top49The pressure level at the checkpoint, once effectively broken through50The integer level of the US dollar is also within reach. So for today's trend, I still have a bullish outlook on the low side.
　　
Crude oil strategy: suggest a pullback48.35-48.25Within the scope of many, stop loss is within47.80, Objective49.2-49.40。
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