NFXPinhui International: Gold prices have rebounded and skyrocketed1%

             Thursday Beijing time(7month27day)before dawn2:00The Federal Reserve announces interest rates at1%-1.25%Remaining unchanged, and reiterating that the inflation rate will rise2%。goldWednesday Jump Up1%, to a six week high1263.57dollar/ounce.MeizhiExpand the decline, fall below94Pass report93.49. On the previous trading day,goldClosing report1260.53dollar/Ounces, opening report today1259.37, highest1263.06, minimum1259.37。

The Federal Reserve suggests that it will shrink its balance sheet as soon as possible


BMO Capital MarketsDirector of the Basic Metals and Precious Metals Trading DepartmentTai Wongexpress Gold has regained recently lost ground and its upward momentum has driven prices to new highs, as the Federal Reserve has issued a prudent policy statement acknowledging low inflation but confirming 'Not long after' Start reducing the balance sheet
Credit Agricole de Franceforeign exchangeStrategistVassili SerebriakovWe believe that 'soon'9The monthly scale is consistent, but it may still be desirable to use a stronger tone or indicate more clearly that it is9Month, perhaps the market will9The month is seen as a question mark, we don't think so, but 'soon' can have many explanations

There is still pressure on the rise of gold prices


The Federal Reserve reiterates that inflation is rising2%;The process of normalizing the balance sheet will begin relatively quickly;The risks to the economic outlook appear to be roughly balanced. The job market has strengthened, employment growth is stable, and the unemployment rate has declined. It is expected that future economic development will provide a basis for gradually increasing interest rate levels. Household expenses have increased, while fixed investment in enterprises continues to expand. Currently, we will still reinvest the principal of maturing securities, and there is not much change in the inflation indicators based on the survey;It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to2%Left and right. It is expected that inflation will remain below2%. Excluding the decline in inflation indicators for food and energy prices, they remain at2%Below.
according toCME"Fed observation",FOMCBefore the statement, the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25%-1.5%The probability of the interval is8.2%，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes reaching this range is42.9%。FOMCAfter the statement, the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25%-1.5%The probability of the interval is8.2%，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes reaching this range is45.1%。
Analysts say that if the Federal Reserve leans towards a dovish stance, gold will move upwards. From today's reaction to gold prices, the Federal Reserve's statement is dovish, and gold is expected to regain its upward momentum. However, the economic data in the United States is relatively strong, and it also suppresses gold;The weak inflation outlook also has a negative impact on gold. If there is no change in the language of the Federal Reserve meeting, safe haven demand will drive up gold.

Focus on the stabilization of the US dollar and US data


The fact that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to cool down has been priced within the trend in the market. Even if the Federal Reserve's decision suppresses the rebound of the US dollar, the US dollar index93.00/50There is strong support in the region, and if it falls below this level, there will be a large number of low buying opportunities entering the market. When the US dollar starts to rebound, it's not good news for gold.