Translated by Panshijia:7.27Analysis and Trading Strategy of Midday Gold and Crude Oil Market

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Thursday Beijing time（7month27In the early morning of the day2:00The Federal Reserve has released7monthFOMCMeeting statement to maintain the federal funds rate at1%-1.25%The range remains unchanged, in line with market expectations, and the announcement of a relatively fast start to scale down suggests that as early as this year9Starting from the month. As usual, there was no press conference for Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen or updated economic forecasts arranged after this meeting, but the market reaction was quite intense!


FOMCThe statement stated that the US economy will ensure a gradual increase in interest rates and reiterated its commitment to a mid-term rebound in inflation rates2%The confidence is that the employment growth rate is stable, the labor market continues to strengthen, and the process of normalizing the balance sheet will begin relatively quickly. The statement also reiterated that we are closely monitoring the inflation situation and still believe that the inflation rate is temporarily affected. Currently, we will continue to reinvest our assets, that is, maintain a relatively loose monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has not changed its interest rate hike path, meaning that the Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates again this year. according toCME"Federal Reserve Observation": After the release of interest rate decisions, the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25%-1.5%The probability of the interval is8.2%，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes reaching this range is45.1%Before the announcement of the resolution8.2%and42.9%。


Translated by Panshi Family.One-on-one guidance on market strategy (official WeChat account):OL0080


goldTechnical analysis


Gold opened yesterday morning1249.8Continuously affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the bullish bearish trend in gold technology, it fell significantly to its intraday low1243.5frontline.4Above hour levelKIn the case of a continuous bearish candlestick, weak adjustments will continue to dominate, and this is often a textbook trend before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, but everything is under controlFOMCIn hand, the evening data was released, and although the impact was relatively small, the market still made a strong reaction, with the highest short-term rise reaching1263.3Nearby, indicating that the bullish trend is still strong, with future attention1265-1270Resistance breaking situation. In terms of operation, Shijia suggests a downward trend and taking advantage of the trend to go long, under pressure1265Don't break through the light warehouse empty space, focus on the upper part1265-1270Line resistance, below1243Strong support on the front line.


Gold trading strategy:


Radical current price1260Multiple frontlines, steady waiting for withdrawal1258Long, stop loss1255, Objective1265, breaking the limit to hold; The first touch of the Asian and European stock market1268First line light position empty, stop loss1271, Objective1260


crude oilTechnical analysis


The decline in US crude oil inventories and production has provided strong support for oil prices. At the same time, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as scheduled, the US dollar fell again, increasing the upward space for oil prices. On Wednesday, oil prices climbed to a higher level.


On the daily crude oil line, currentlyKThe line is between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and the entire Bollinger Bands continue to run upwards with an opening; Attached diagramMACDDouble line intersecting dead cross operation, the green energy column capacity has weakened, and the indicators are relatively weak; The overall trend on the daily chart is still positive for crude oil. Looking at daily support47.20/47.50; Suppress Look49.0. At the hourly level,MA5The daily moving average is turning upwards, while the other cycles have not changed their upward trend. Instead, they are focusing on support when falling back48.0；KThe line runs between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Belt, with an upward opening, as shown in the attached figureMACDDouble line intersection dead cross, weakened green energy column capacity, and weak neutral indicators; Hour line support48.20/48.40; suppress48.80. Overall, during the day, Sega suggested a pullback and a long position.


Crude oil trading strategy


48.20Multiple orders, stop loss47.80, Objective49.10。


[The following suggestions are given for gold short orders]


1Gold1250Those who are short selling nearby should have set their sights for now10About a point, if the risk is still high, in the120Above, there's no need to worry too much. Pay attention to the hourly line collection situation in this round,1260The gains and losses of position. If you stand firm, go long and lock the order first. If you hit high and fall back, you can add short positions. If the risk lies in100For the following, Shijia suggests reducing positions first to stabilize when there is a decline, and only with funds can we continue to operate, otherwise we will have nothing when the positions are sold out.


2Gold and today's low point1244If you are short selling nearby, then your pursuit is meaningless. Even if you want to short, you can wait to fall below the daily trend line1240Do it again, chasing after empty spaces is a mistake that only beginners make. If there are short orders at or below this position, the likelihood of being resolved in the short term is not high. Even if there is a pullback in the gold market in the future, it will only reach1250Nearby. If we stand firm1260If you continue to attack, then there is no hope of taking empty orders. Shijia suggests cutting the meat or cutting it, as the two sides will never reach their destination.


writing//Translated by Panshi Family.(Official WeChat):OL0080