Suye Lunjin:7.27（早评）黄金原油行情分析及建议（附解套）

Thursday Beijing Time（7month27In the early morning of the day2:00Federal Reserve releases7monthFOMC会议声明，昨日影响gold最大的消息莫过于此次美联储的加息决议了。关于这次会议笔者晚间的文章《苏野论金：7.26美联储决议来袭，黄金白银操作建议》中提到了本次加息应该不会有什么改变，然而事实上也的确如此。美联储9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25%-1.5%The probability of the interval is8.2%，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes reaching this range is42.9%，符合市场预期，宣布“相对较快”地启动缩表，暗示最早今年9月开始。按照惯例，这次会后没有安排美联储主席耶伦的记者会，也没有提供更新的经济预测，但市场反应却颇为剧烈，导致美指又出现暴跌，黄金应声上涨已经破了日内新高，最高涨到1263.39。
　　
　　本次的FOMC声明有两点措辞修改是市场最为关注的。首先是对通胀的描述变更，删除了“近期下滑”的字样，认为“整体”12The inflation rate indicators for the past month have all been declining, and the "generally" lower core inflation rate has been removed2%The statement acknowledges that weak inflation has become a relatively persistent phenomenon since the beginning of this year, with both overall inflation and core inflation excluding food and energy prices being lower than the Federal Reserve2%的通胀目标。不过这一“鸽派”言论已计入市场的预期中。其次是关于缩表政策，本月美联储会议明确释放缩表将至的信号，不再像6月那样只笼统预计会在今年行动，缩表时间的描述由“今年”变成“相对较快”。笔者苏野分析认为虽然这些措词的改变又一定程度上能够提振美元，但是市场的避险情绪依旧存在，黄金还是难以受到抑制。
　　
　　关于加息方面本次FOMCThe statement stated that the US economy will ensure a gradual increase in interest rates and reiterated its commitment to a mid-term rebound in inflation rates2%的信心，认为就业增速稳健，劳动力市场持续走强，将相对较快地开始资产负债表正常化进程。声明还重申正密切关注通胀形势，仍认为通胀率受到暂时因素影响，目前仍会对所持资产进行再投资，即维持相对宽松的货币政策。美联储并没有修改加息路径，即美联储预计今年会再加息一次。其实在加息上，不管消息是好还是坏，笔者苏野认为都对黄金的影响并不是很大，本次会议真正能影响黄金是通胀和缩表。

　　

　　黄金技术面解析：日线上看一根大阳线收复前两日跌幅并触及布林带上轨位置且受阻于此，但完全不能掩盖黄金多头趋势。目前布林带呈微微开口运行，上方上行空间没有进一步打开，但随时都会面临进一步上破的可能。此时金价运行在1261Nearby, in the short term, the upper part of the Bollinger Belt will be affected by the upper track1263Zone suppression, further looking towards6month15Rigao is located at1266One area is suppressed, and the lower part is affected by5Daily moving average at1253Belt support, further support level looks towards10Daily moving average at1243Location, attached imageMACDThe bullish trend is showing a forced increase in volume again, with gold prices rebounding and rising; Over the course of four hours, the gold price briefly broke through the two major resistance positions of the upper and middle Bollinger Bands, with no signs of a pullback for the bulls. The downside is affected by5/10Daily moving average at1250位置交金叉支撑，预计金价仍有上涨契机。综上所述，隔日黄金突破1250/1255阻力位并转化为支撑位，若今日继续攀升将区间顶部位置转化为支撑位黄金有望再度试探上方千三关口。
　　
　　早间操作策略：
　　
　　1Suggest placing above1261-1263Short position, stop loss1265Above, look at the target1258-1255, take a break to see1250；
　　
　　2、首次回落在1256-1258Multiple, stop loss1252Below, look at the target1263-1265；
　　
　　3、破1258Fallback1250-1252Multiple, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1257-1260, take a break to see1265。
　　
Gold empty order unwinding:
　　
　　1Gold1250Those who are short selling nearby should have set their sights for now10About a point, if the risk is still high, in the120Above, there's no need to worry too much. Pay attention to the hourly line collection situation in this round,1260The gains and losses of position. If you stand firm, go long and lock the order first. If you hit high and fall back, you can add short positions. If the risk lies in100Su Ye suggests that if there is a decline, first reduce the position to stabilize, and only continue to operate with funds, otherwise there will be nothing left when the position is liquidated.
　　
　　2Gold and today's low point1244If you are short selling nearby, then your pursuit is meaningless. Even if you want to short, you can wait to fall below the daily trend line1240Do it again, chasing after empty spaces is a mistake that only beginners make. If there are short orders at or below this position, the likelihood of being resolved in the short term is not high. Even if there is a pullback in the gold market in the future, it will only reach1250Nearby. If we stand firm1260If you continue to attack, then there is no hope of taking empty orders. Suye suggested cutting the meat or cutting it, as the two sides will never reach their destination.
　　
Speaking of this weekcrude oil走势，利好不断，油价节节攀升。自本周一俄罗斯圣彼得堡会议结束之后原油就像是吃了“兴奋剂”一样飙涨。首先是本次会议采取了限制尼日利亚石油产出的行动，并呼吁一些成员国加强减产的执行力度，目的是帮助清除过剩的国际原油库存以支撑油价。其次就是APIas well asEIA原油库存大降，油价伺机上涨。最后就是美指持续下挫提振油价。至于后期油价走势如何，市场看好多头一片，笔者苏野也不例外，在本周种种利好的刺激下，油价几乎都是以实体阳线收尾（周三EIAExcept for stimulating the market, long positions are strong enough. If this good momentum can be maintained, there will be further reasons for oil prices to rise, and the upper limit may touch50美元关口乃至收复于此。在注意多头的同时也要谨慎空头反扑，笔者苏野提醒的是着重关注原油库存的变化以及OPECThe situation of major oil producing countries reducing production.

　　

　　原油技术面解析：昨晚EIA，10分钟左右拉升至48.82的位置，受到49.0一线的强压制线，最终回落到48.30附近，暂时收比较长的上影阳线，后面的行情就是一个震荡走高的行情。日线上，目前KThe line is between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and the entire Bollinger Bands continue to run upwards with an opening; Attached diagramMACDDouble line intersecting dead cross operation, the green energy column capacity has weakened, and the indicators are relatively weak; The overall trend on the daily chart is still positive for crude oil. Looking at daily support47.20/47.50；阻力看49.30. Four hours of continuous positive trading volume, with almost no pause in correction and unilateral increase.4After breaking through the high point in hours47.70Conversion support for top and bottom conversion. Today, relying on support, we can continue to see an upward trend. But today we're just looking at the continuation of inertia, the trend line of the daily chart above49.40-50There is still some resistance, and after the increase in volume of the Double Yang, the short-term will still enter a circuitous upward trend, with the short-term mainly remaining low. See if chronic consolidation can break through the suppression of resistance and complete the reversal and rise. Currently, the focus is on the top49.0and200Daily moving average49.30一线压制。下方重点100Daily moving average48.10和上周高点47.5Support.
　　
　　早间操作策略：
　　
　　1.建议现价48.6Empty order entry, stop loss45.1, Objective47.8；
　　
　　2.Fallback47.80Multiple entry orders nearby,47.5, Objective48.80.
　　Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold reform lxr1489