Swiss franc : (11month17day)

View All · Published on 2008-11-17 09:22:21

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Focus:
•阻力参考1.1780/1.1800•1.1600•1.1420
•支撑参考1.2000•1.2050•1.2100•1.2300

瑞士方面，上周数据显示瑞士11monthZEW投资者信心指数跳涨2.6Point to negative88.5，但对瑞郎之影响不大。瑞郎上周自1.17缓步下跌至1.20水平，相比起避险因素带来的支撑作用，美元走强更为明显令瑞郎维持承压。

波浪理论分析，瑞郎有机会运行完大型第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves4Stretching within the waves(c)浪，并即将开始运行大型第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪。瑞郎在07year1month26Daily low1.2576开始运行大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)浪，即1.2576to07year4month25Daily high1.1993为大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves1伸延浪。而1.1993to07year6month13Daily low1.2468为第2Stretching waves,1.2468to08year3month17Daily high0.9644为第3Stretching waves,0.9644to5month8Daily low1.0626为第4Stretching within the waves(a)Waves,1.0626to7month15Daily high1.0010为第4Stretching within the waves(b)Waves,1.0010to11month13Daily low1.2000有机会刚完成大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves4Stretching within the waves(c)浪。而1.2000开始将运行大型第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪即上升浪，预料此大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪将在本周升穿1.1780Horizontal.

瑞郎上周四触及一年新低1.2001，技术型态所见，由9月中旬至今持续维持于上升通道间运行，而周四低位亦正好触及通道顶部，在未有破位下，亦跟随其他欧洲货币出现反弹。预期1.20仍是关注支持，250周平均线则处于1.2050， 1.21and1.23水平可望为下一级支撑。另一方面，当前较近阻力为1.18and10Balance moving average1.1780，较大阻力位则在25Balance moving average1.1600水平及上升通道底部1.1420Horizontal.

(析由英皇金融集团纵横汇海研究部提供)