7.18Early Review: Production Increase, Short Short term Short Short Term Oil, Mystery of Interest Rate hikes, Gold Price Completely Explodes

Introduction


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Beautycrude oilMessage surface


Due to the expected steady increase in domestic production of some key oil products, concerns in the oil market have intensified again, and oil prices are expected to rise on Monday（7month17Japan has suffered setbacks for over1%For the first time in six trading days, it closed lower. United StatesWTIcrude oil8monthfuturesClosing down0.52USD or1.12%Report46.02dollar/Barrel; Brent crude oil9Monthly futures closed lower0.49USD or1%Report48.42dollar/Bucket.


On Monday, oil prices remained stable near a two-week high in the Asian session, benefiting from a decrease in US crude oil inventories, a slight slowdown in US crude oil production, and signs of increased demand from China. However, during the European and American period, concerns about oversupply in the market were exacerbated by the continuous increase in key oil producing domestic production, leading to a decline in oil prices.

According to foreign media, Libya's crude oil production has increased to11010000 barrels/Day. In addition,EIAExpected US8The total production of the seven major shale oil regions in the month has increased11.310000 barrels/Solstice558.510000 barrels/Day, for consecutive days8Climbing in months. Goldman Sachs predicts that US crude oil production will increase from2016From the fourth quarter of the year to2017Will rise in the fourth quarter of the year8410000 barrels/Day, higher than last week83.510000 barrels/Expectations for the day. Goldman Sachs stated:


"Based on the time difference between price indicators and drilling decisions, the next month will be crucial, which happens to be the financial reporting season for oil drilling production enterprises."


However, there is good news coming from the Asian side. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday,2017The average domestic crude oil production in the first half of the year was approximately40010000 barrels/Day, year-on-year decrease5.1%And the import volume of crude oil has increased14%to85010000 barrels/Japan once again consolidates its position as the world's largest energy importer. In addition, ChinaGDPThe data shows that the annualized growth rate in the second quarter is6.9%Exceeding estimates has also boosted demand for crude oil. Analysts say that as long as oil prices remain relatively low, Chinese refineries will continue to increase crude oil inventories at low prices.


Chinese refiners6The monthly processing volume has increased, setting a second highest record. The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on Monday that,6The monthly refining and processing volume reaches4608Ten thousand tons, equivalent to112110000 barrels/Day, year-on-year increase2.3%. This is second only to12Record high set by the month112610000 barrels/Day.


Investors are turning their attention to the US oil inventory data that will be released on Wednesday. According to the survey results released by foreign media on Monday, as of7month14US crude oil inventories are expected to decrease this week370Ten thousand barrels, expected to decline for the third consecutive week, while gasoline inventory is expected to decrease100Ten thousand barrels, while refined oil storage will increase130Ten thousand barrels.


Overall, according to Shenzhi, there have been frequent negative news in recent times. Regardless of how OPEC controls oil prices in the future, at least in the short term, we still see that the news is far more bearish than bullish.


Analysis of the US crude oil market


Yesterday, crude oil showed an overall downward trend of volatility, and the author has repeatedly pointed out in the analysis that it is not a problem to be bullish in the medium and long term, but there is no problem to short in the short term. The final closing on Monday was46At the US dollar level, from a daily perspective, the Bollinger Bands are operating on the opening,KThere is a trend of running close to the middle rail above the Bollinger Bands, and there is a bonding trend between the moving averages,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines shows a secondary divergence trend, with a decrease in the red energy bar and a weakening of the bullish trend; From the four hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges upwards,KThe line runs near the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, and the moving averages begin to bond,STOIt is located in the overbought area, crossing and leveling,MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines runs downwards, reducing the red energy bar and strengthening the bearish trend. Overall, the current bearish trend has a slight advantage. In terms of operation, the Shenzhi suggests that in the short term, the main focus should be on high altitude, with low bullish as a supplement, and the focus should be on the upper level47One line of resistance, pay attention below45.4Frontline support.

Suggestions for US crude oil operations


　　1Rebound46.50First line empty advance, stop loss0.3, Objective46.05


　　2Falling back46.90Multiple orders on the front line, stop loss0.3, Objective46.40


BeautygoldMessage surface


Due to weak US dollar and US economic data, the prospect of interest rate hikes is bleak. International spot gold rose strongly on Monday, with the highest intraday price in the US market reaching1235.94dollar/Ounces, gold price has rebounded to200Above the daily moving average, the upward momentum has been further restored. The United States announced within the day7The manufacturing index of the New York Fed for the month is9.8Far below the previous value and expectations, it is beneficial for gold.


　　COMEX 8Monthly gold futures up6.20USD, increase0.5%Report1233.70dollar/Ounces, creating6month30Closing at a new high in recent days;9Monthly silver futures rose on Monday16.6Cents or1%Report collection16.10 dollar/ounce.


The US dollar index briefly touched yesterday95.02of10Month low, USA10Yields of benchmark one-year treasury bond bonds fell1.8Basis points, reporting2.3241%. Analysts say that the decline in US dollar and bond yields, while gold prices remain stable1230dollar/Above the ounce, it may encourage more bears to turn to bulls, which adds to the upward momentum of gold. Moreover, after the fourth consecutive month of slowing consumer price increases in the United States last Friday, traders' expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year have cooled.12month12-13The possibility of raising interest rates at the Japanese policy meeting has been raised by7month5Diurnal66%Slide down to45%，9month19-20The probability of raising interest rates at the daily meeting is determined by24%lower8%。

However, JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve is likely to9Starting to shrink the table in the month, this decision is likely to be made next week7month25-26OfFOMCAfter the meeting, it was announced that if this were indeed the case, the rebound of gold may be subject to certain restrictions, and it is not advisable to be blindly optimistic. Due to the expected gradual tightening of monetary policy in the United States and Western Europe, hedge funds and other large institutional investors have been extremely disappointed with precious metals, and the holding data in the gold, silver, and platinum markets have all collapsed.


The Commodity Futures Commission of the United States（CFTC）The data shows that as of7month11Day and week,COMEXGold andoptionThe net long position has fallen to17The lowest level in months. The change in silver's position is even more tragic. In the past week, silver's position has shifted from net long to net short2015year8For the first time in a month, it is bearish. In addition, hedge funds increased their net short position bets on platinum last week, and the scale reached a historic high.


Overall, the weak US economy has a significant impact on gold today. If more action is not taken in raising interest rates, we are optimistic that the upward trend of gold will continue.


Analysis of the US Gold Market


Yesterday morning, the opening of gold prices continued the upward trend of last Friday, and when the gold price reached1231The first-line momentum has been completely released, and the subsequent gold price will remain stable1228-1235The range fluctuations have not given us the ideal entry point, and the short-term gold price remains at a high level of volatility.


From the four small imagesKDJThe three line random indicators have a downward turning trend at high levels,MACDThe red energy pillar is gradually shrinking, and overall, gold prices are expected to experience a pullback. Therefore, early morning operations today are17Similar to the number, it can be operated from high altitude and low altitude. Please follow below for more information1229Frontline support, attention from above1236-1237Pressure.

Suggestions for US Gold Operations


　　1Suggest using1236-1234Short range, stop loss4USD, target1230-1228Nearby;


　　2Suggest a fallback1228-1229Long range, stop loss4USD, target1235-1237Nearby;


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