Suye Lunjin:7.18（早评）黄金原油早间行情分析及策略

　　--goldMarket analysis--
　　
Due to weak US dollar and US economic data, the prospect of interest rate hikes is bleak. International spot gold rose strongly on Monday, with the highest intraday price in the US market reaching1235.94dollar/Ounces, gold price has rebounded to200Above the daily moving average, the upward momentum has been further restored. The United States announced within the day7The manufacturing index of the New York Fed for the month is9.8Far below the previous value and expectations, it is beneficial for gold.
　　
The US dollar index briefly touched yesterday95.02of10Month low, USA10Yields of benchmark one-year treasury bond bonds fell1.8Basis points, reporting2.3241%。笔者苏野分析表示，美元及美债收益率的下跌，同时金价持稳在1230dollar/Above the ounce, it may encourage more bears to turn to bulls, which adds to the upward momentum of gold. Moreover, after the fourth consecutive month of slowing consumer price increases in the United States last Friday, traders' expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of this year have cooled.12month12-13The possibility of raising interest rates at the Japanese policy meeting has been raised by7month5Diurnal66%Slide down to45%，9month19-20The probability of raising interest rates at the daily meeting is determined by24%lower8%。
　　
　　不过，笔者认为美联储很有可能在9Starting to shrink the table in the month, this decision is likely to be made next week7month25-26OfFOMC会后宣布，若果真如此，黄金的反弹可能会受到一定限制，也不宜盲目乐观。由于预计美国和西欧地区的货币政策将逐步收紧，对冲基金和其他大型机构投资者已对贵金属失望透顶，黄金和白银市场的持仓数据齐齐溃败。

　　

　　目前的黄金就跟天气一样，进入了高温模式。上周五一根大阳，把金价从1214直接拉了起来，目前已持稳在1230关口的上方。昨天小幅高开之后，并没有太怎么回调，而是直接向上冲，说明本周趋势还是利好多头。再加上目前的美元较为疲软，虽然目前在95关口得到了支撑，但是根据以往来看，这一线破位之后，往往会大幅的下滑，冲击92-90支撑，这对于黄金来说是非常利好的，那么金价就会突破1235-1240的压制，继续上涨抵达布林带上轨也就是1250-1260区间，如多头继续保持强势，那么上方1280and1295突破也在我们考虑范围之内。但是如果美元在95关口挺住并开启反弹，那金价就会再度出现回调，所以在这个关键的时候，我们就要多加关注上方的重要压制。
　　
　　就今日而言，我们继续看好多头的向上延续，上方重点关注1238-1240一线的压制，如突破则会冲击1250一线，，而下方关注1228-1230一线的支撑情况，如跌破也不会调整太多，继续关注1220-1225区间。今天黄金在操作上，笔者苏野建议逢低做多为主。还是那句话，不要追单。
　　
　　早间策略：回撤1230-1232Multiple orders entering nearby, stop loss5USD, target1238-1240附近破位持有；上攻1240Entering the market without breaking short orders and stopping losses5USD, target1233-1230附近破位持有；
　　
　　--crude oilMarket analysis--
　　
　　因部分关键产油国产量料将稳步攀升，油市担忧情绪再度加重，油价周一(7month17day)受挫逾1%For the first time in six trading days, it closed lower. United StatesWTIcrude oil8monthfuturesClosing down0.52USD or1.12%Report46.02dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil9Monthly futures closed lower0.49USD or1%Report48.42dollar/桶。周一亚洲时段油价持稳在两周高位附近，因受助于美国原油库存下降，美国原油生产略有放缓，以及中国需求增加的迹象。但在欧美时段由于关键产油国产量持续上升加重了市场对供应过剩问题的担忧，油价下挫。
　　
According to foreign media, Libya's crude oil production has increased to11010000 barrels/Day. In addition,EIAExpected US8The total production of the seven major shale oil regions in the month has increased11.310000 barrels/Solstice558.510000 barrels/Day, for consecutive days8Climbing in months. Goldman Sachs predicts that US crude oil production will increase from2016From the fourth quarter of the year to2017Will rise in the fourth quarter of the year8410000 barrels/Day, higher than last week83.510000 barrels/日的预期。高盛称：“基于价格指标及钻油决策之间的时间差，未来一个月将是关键，这段时间刚好也是石油钻探生产企业的财报季。”
　　
　　先来回顾昨天原油的走势，早间原油开盘46.5后继续延续涨势，整个亚欧盘前夕都处在46.5-46.6上方运行，欧盘小幅上升到当天最高的46.86，随后就开始了下跌并持续到美盘，尾盘时段创下当天最低的45.89，最后收盘于46美元昨日跌幅达近一美元。今早开盘，原油依旧呈现昨日开盘的状态横盘震荡，笔者苏野认为，今日亚盘不会有什么大的波动，具体的涨幅还是得等到欧美盘开盘。

　　

　　从日线上看，布林带开口上运行，K线运行与布林带中轨上方有靠近中轨运行的趋势，后市重点关注布林带中轨45.4一线支撑。各项均线有粘合趋势，MACDThe opening of the fast and slow lines shows a secondary divergence trend, with a decrease in the red energy bar and a weakening of the bullish trend; From the four hour line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands diverges upwards,KThe line runs near the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, and the moving averages begin to bond,STOIt is located in the overbought area, crossing and leveling,MACD快慢线开口向向下运行，红色能量柱减少，空头趋势加强；从小时线上看，布林带开口微微向下发散，K线紧贴布林带下轨运行，MACD快慢线开口向下发散，绿色能量柱增加，多头趋势减弱。综合来看，目前空头趋势稍占优势，后操作上建议短期以高空为主，低多为辅，重点上方关注47One line of resistance, pay attention below45.4Frontline support
　　
　　早间策略：建议46.20First line entry with multiple orders, stop loss45.80Region, target46.80-47.0-47.20一线，破位继续持有！
　　Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold reform lxr1489