Suye Lunjin:7.17(Evening Review) Analysis and Strategy of Gold, Silver, Crude Oil in the Evening

　　周末消息面比较集中在国家金融工作会议上，提到了服务实体是金融的天职，也提到了要保持货币流动性，但是依然是稳中求进的总基调，这个思路和过去我们提到了全球货币转向是有一定关系的，当前阶段面临的是美国货币逐步收缩，已经从过去的预期变成了现实，现在有一些投行预测四季度美联储加息的可能性在下降，其实这种带来的利好刺激是短暂的，也不会出现太多的利好goldThe time cycle of silver, in6At the time of the month, gold was still in its prime1280After the sharp decline of the US dollar, this idea became clear, and there has been no change now.
　　
　　目前阶段美元还具备经济支撑的情况下，不会下跌的太狠，也不会持续调整，另外一点是一些主要的发达国家在具备了更好的转型和货币刺激后，经济也开始复苏了，资金将会慢慢反流到这些国家，导致欧元和英镑上涨，一些非美货币反弹有逐步转为反转的迹象，在目前加息预期的较为强烈的时候，可能持续力更好，而黄金白银作为一种特殊的非美商品货币，不仅仅需要考虑美元的下跌，还需要考虑通胀和保值增值的需要，在一定时间周期的，黄金白银的利好刺激是收到压制的，一个是社会需求，另外一个通胀要求，目前两者都不具备，美元下跌是长期利好，但是还需要中期的过渡期，三季度其实是最好的过度时间了。
　　
　　从美元发展节奏市场当前的发展模式看，黄金中期存在回调和下跌的需要，这些还没有改变，另外美联储年底是否再次加息之所以存在延迟的可能性，其实不就是因为通胀不及预期吗？这个如果发生在过去第一次加息的时候，黄金白银应该早就上涨1300Above the US dollar, and now it has been continuously4The second interest rate hike has occurred, and the impact of the market is decreasing. With or without inflation support, it is difficult for gold and silver to reverse like non US currencies. As I mentioned in the past, in the long run, after this adjustment, gold and silver should continue to rise in the medium term, and the time will be slightly delayed. We can only see further by clarifying the relationship between these time windows.
　　
　　另外一点就是我们6Since the beginning of the month, it has been emphasized that1281The adjustment of the US dollar has begun, and we have learned for the first time from Federal Reserve officials about the reduction of the balance sheet. With the continuous release of news, it is gradually becoming clear that action will be taken before the end of the year. This is very similar to the first interest rate hike in the past, where we first continuously release news to the market, gradually pushing it to the market, allowing the market to continuously digest the negative impact of this. Finally, we directly announce the market plan to reduce the balance sheet, which may provide some support for the decline of the US dollar3Quarter is a very good transition time, which requires digesting the negative effects of balance sheet reduction. As we all know, the prices of gold and silver usually react in advance and need to be adjusted basically before implementation. If the year-end balance sheet reduction may even occur earlier, then the third quarter is the best bottoming out process, gradually completing the timetable of this adjustment cycle? Starting from these two points, we can basically understand where strategic thinking lies.
　　
　　--Golden Evening Operation Strategy--

　　

　　黄金上周出现了探底回升，最高涨到了1233USD, minimum from1204The stabilization and rebound of the US dollar is not a big problem in itself. You cannot say that there is only a downward trend without an upward trend, nor can you find many reasons just because there is a slight increase. Moreover, you should not be unable to withstand a slight risk of retreat just because of past success. Trading itself is a gradual process, and we need to adapt to it. From this bottoming out and rebounding bullish candlestick, it can be seen that the market will move towards the bearish profit point area1240Near the US dollar, key pressure points1236The US dollar, according to a drop below1214The US dollar has disrupted its original trend, and the short-term line suppression is not sufficient, which may cause a slightly larger rebound within the day. There are some differences in the suppression of the daily and medium-term lines, but this divergence should not be seen as a reversal, especially after the first downward phase. This rebound is actually the best arrangement. Gold will rise first and then fall this time, and it may continue until after Wednesday.
　　
Fallback to1225Multiple orders entering nearby, stop loss1221Target Look1232Nearby, if there is no upper limit, you can empty once and stop loss1237Target Look1225Nearby, if successfully stabilized1232Then you can continue to fall back to this position and go long, with a focus on the target1236to1240Stop loss1228。
　　
　　--Silver Evening Operation Strategy--

　　

　　白银价格已经重新涨到了16.05The US dollar, this is a bearish pressure point, currently still experiencing a significant drop14.3Within the cycle of the US dollar, the market will not easily end such adjustments, and silver is16.05In the future, the US dollar will mostly be used to attract bullish behavior and is not suitable for chasing after its rise.
　　
Fallback to15.8-15.9Multiple orders entering, stop loss15.5Target Look16.3Near.
　　
　　--crude oilEvening operation strategy--

　　

　　原油上周再次收出阳线，这已经是跌到42The bullish candlestick after the US dollar hits the shock47After the failure of the US dollar, it rose again, which is beneficial for this week's upward trend. When it first hit the pressure point earlier, it fell back. By last week's confirmation, although the weekly line was bearish, the rebound of crude oil always developed beyond expectations. This week's crude oil daily line will complete a winding upward trend, and then gradually see the target. The pressure is at47The US dollar cannot rule out a breakthrough47.20The position of the US dollar may even be higher, but it does not change the future double dip.
　　
Fallback to46reach46.2Multiple entries between orders, target oriented46.8Stop loss45.7, breaking through and looking towards47reach47.3Nearby; First time exploring47.3Nearby, light warehouse empty once, target46.7Nearby, stop loss47.7。
　　Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold  reform lxr1489