Crossing the Sea 2017year 7month10day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

7

month

10

day

Focus this week:
7month10day(Monday)
U.S.A6Monthly employment trend index

7month11day(Tuesday)
U.S.A5Monthly Consumer Credit
United States6monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A5monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A5月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A5月批发销售月率修订

7month13day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A6Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A6Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A6Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and trade

7month14day(Friday)
U.S.A6Monthly federal budget
U.S.A6monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A6Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A6Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A6Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A6Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A6Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A6Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A5Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A7Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A7月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A7月密歇根大学预期指数初值



Important economic data released today:
07：50 Japan6月银行贷款年率‧Previous value+3.2%
07：50 Japan5月未经季节调整流动帐平衡‧Previous value19,519Yiyi surplus
07：50 Japan5Monthly mechanical order rate‧Previous value-3.1%
07：50 Japan5Annual rate of monthly mechanical orders‧Previous value+2.7%
09：30 China6Monthly Consumer Price IndexCPI
09：30 China6月工业生产者价格指数PPI
13：00 Japan6Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧Previous value48.6
14：00 Germany5月经季节调整出口月率‧Previous value+0.9%
14：00 Germany5月经季节调整进口月率‧Previous value+1.2%
14：00 Germany5月经季节调整贸易平衡‧Previous value198Yiyi surplus
16：30 eurozone7monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Front value positive28.4
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value133.7



7month7day
LondongoldMorning order price:1220.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1215.65

Today's Introduction

美元上周早初上扬，美汇指数周一录得约四个月来最大单日升幅，因美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布美国6月制造业指数强于预期，从而带动美国10年期公债收益率触及5month16日以来最高水平。不过，美联储周三发布6month13-14日政策会议的记录之后，美元涨势暂停。会议记录显示，决策者对通胀前景及其如何影响未来升息步幅的分歧加重。至于周四发布的ADP民间就业等美国经济数据表现疲弱，打压美元进一步回落。周五公布了美国6月非农就业报告，新增职位表现大幅好于预期，刺激美元走高。数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业职位22.20万，大幅好于预期值17.80Ten thousand, the previous value is from13.80万上修到15.2Ten thousand;6月失业率虽然微升至4.4%，但充分就业状态依然牢固；6月平均时薪月率则稍为逊色，仅增加0.2%。整体数据仍可望支撑美联储今年还会加息一次的预期。



XAU London Gold - 金价双顶下行，短期维持承压

图表走势所见，伦敦黄金自上周初下挫后，则维持着区间整理，向上受制1230关口，下方则见在1220水平附近获得支撑，直至周五非农数据公布后金价出现下滑，跌破了上周底部，并且更下破5month9Daily low1213.80水平，形态上可望以双顶破颈线继续走低，延伸目标看至1200and1175Horizontal. Looking back at the resistance above1218and1230，附近亦见有200The balance moving average is located at1231.50美元，较大阻力预估为1242USD.

London Gold7month10 – 14Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1221 – 1231 – 1255 – 1273
Support bit:1194 – 1182 – 1165 – 1147

London Gold7month10day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1202 – 1216
Resistance level:1224 – 1236 – 1256
Support bit:1194 – 1174 – 1165

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
6month12Day - 867.00ton
6month13Day - 867.00ton
6month14Day - 854.87ton
6month15Day - 853.68ton
6month16Day - 853.68ton
6month19Day - 853.68ton
6month20Day - 853.68ton
6month21Day - 853.68ton
6month22Day - 853.98ton
6month23Day - 851.02ton
6month26Day - 853.68ton
6month27Day - 853.68ton
6month28Day - 853.68ton
6month29Day - 853.68ton
6month30Day - 852.50ton
7month3Day - 846.29ton
7month4Day - 846.29ton
7month5Day - 840.67ton
7month6Day - 840.67ton
7month7Day - 835.35ton

6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6 (+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈技术超卖

伦敦白银方面，上周五早上银价突然出现崩跌，瞬间下跌幅度达到10%，一分钟内闪崩下跌至15美元下方。原因可能是自动化交易，所造成的瞬间触发止损，又或者是触发自动卖盘而造成的。目前白银走势，银价在崩跌后，已见迅速扳回大部份跌幅，但晚间受非农数据打压，又回落至15.50水平附近。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数有着初步回稳迹象，或见银价短线的下跌空间将为有限；较近支持料为15.30and15美元关口，下一级看至14.50美元。向上首要阻力先指向15.90and16.30，较大阻力预估为50Balance moving average16.74USD.   

London Silver7month10 – 14Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:15.80 – 16.60 – 17.60 – 18.40
Support bit:14.60 – 13.80 – 12.90 – 12.00

London Silver7month10day
Predicting early wave amplitude:14.80 – 16.30
Resistance level:17.00 – 17.60
Support bit:14.10 – 13.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
6month26Day - 10571.73ton
6month27Day - 10571.73ton
6month29Day - 10551.14ton
6month30Day - 10562.90ton
7month3Day - 10562.90ton
7month4Day - 10562.90ton
7month5Day - 10558.43ton
7month6Day - 10629.03ton
7month6Day - 10629.03ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)