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纽元方面,周初纽元在低位挣扎,金融市场动荡引发股市暴跌以及投资者避险意愿加强,纽元兑美元一度跌至0.6483。由于投资者出脱杠杆利差交易部位,导致纽元兑日圆下滑,成为纽元下跌的重要因素之一。但随著AIG获救之消息传出,亦令纽元收复失地,再而周五美国政府考虑处理信贷危机后不良资产的计划,市场风险情绪进一步改善,致使纽元扩大升势,周五高位达至0.6900。

波浪理论分析,纽元仍运行大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪,并接近尾声。纽元的长期的上升浪由2000year11Monthly low0.3902开始,并在27-02-2008的最高位0.8213完结及结束7年多的上升周期。由27-02-2008的最高位0.8213开始将运行大型调整浪。预料此大型调整浪将有机会运行1to2年甚至更长,但其间亦会出现似模似样的反弹。而此大型调整浪将由三组主要浪组成,即由大型(A)、(B)and(C)三个主要浪运行。而大型(A)浪将有机会再由5个中浪组合成,故由27-02-2008的最高位0.8213to15-05-2008Low order of0.7536有机会为大型调整(A)Within the waves(1)Waves, and0.7536to27-05-2008的高位0.7922为大型调整(A)Within the waves(2)Waves, and0.7922to13-06-2008Low order of0.7446为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,0.7446to15-07-2008的高位0.7760为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves2Stretching waves,0.7760to13-08-2008Low order of0.6823为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves3Stretching waves,0.6823to22-08-2008的高位0.7214为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves4伸延浪,而0.7214至现在为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪。预料此第5伸延浪运行将接近尾声,并有机会在0.62-0.64水平完结。当确认运行完大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪后,大型调整(A)Within the waves(4)浪即反弹浪将马上展开,而反弹幅度将有500-1000Ideas.

图表指标所见,纽元能否重返10Days and25平均线上方,可望已确认纽元短期走强趋势。以gold比率计算,38.2%反弹目标为0.6945,50%Then it is0.71The gateway, and50天平均线亦正处于0.71Horizontal. The support below can be found in5Days and10Balance moving average0.6650/70,下一支撑则为0.65关口,继续进一步支持为06year5Monthly high0.6430/40。

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)
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