Crossing the Sea 2017year 6month27day

Crossing the Sea 2017year 6month27day

Focus this week:
6month27day(Tuesday)
U.S.A4monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities
U.S.A4monthCaseShillerMonthly rate of unadjusted housing price index without seasonal adjustment
U.S.A4monthCaseShillerAnnual rate of housing price index
U.S.A6Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A6Monthly Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Composite Manufacturing Index

6month28day(Wednesday)
U.S.A5Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A5Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A5Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

6month29day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
美国第一季商业获利修订
Season 1 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
美国第一季最终销售终值
美国第一季消费者支出终值
Season 1 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
Season 1 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
US Season 1 CorePCEFinal value of price index

6month30day(Friday)
U.S.A5Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A5Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A5月经调整后的个人支出月率
U.S.A5Monthly CorePCEprice index
U.S.A5monthPCEprice index
U.S.A5Dallas Federal ReservePCE
U.S.A6Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A6Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month



Important economic data released today:        
18：00 britain6Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Retail sales difference‧Predict positive2‧Front value positive2
21：00 U.S.A4monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities‧forecast0.4%‧Previous value+0.9%
21：00 U.S.A4monthCaseShillerMonthly rate of unadjusted housing price index without seasonal adjustment‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+1.0%
21：00 U.S.A4monthCaseShillerAnnual rate of housing price index‧forecast+5.9%‧Previous value+5.9%
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast116.0‧Previous value117.9
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Composite Manufacturing Index‧Front value positive1


News of the Week
New YorkFED总裁：资金状况趋缓是美联储收紧政策的另一个理由

U.S.A5Monthly durable goods orders have decreased compared to the previous month1.1%
U.S.A5月扣除国防的耐久财订单下降0.6%
U.S.A5月扣除运输的耐久财订单较前月增长0.1%
U.S.A5月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单较前月下降0.2%
U.S.A5月建筑许可修正后仍为下滑4.9%，年率修正后仍为116.810000 households


6month26day
LondongoldMorning order price:1240.85
London gold afternoon fixing price:1245.25



Today's Introduction

旧金山联储总裁语出惊人，警告经济陷入低增长模式的风险

一名美联储官员周二发出警告，美联储和其他发达经济体的央行将发现，长期而言经济会陷入低速增长模式，除非财政当局采取果断行动扭转局面。鉴于美联储本月稍早升息，而且计划继续逐渐升息，以避免美国经济过热，这个刺耳的言论可能让人颇感意外。升息往往暗示对经济前景持乐观看法。旧金山联邦储备银行总裁威廉姆斯周二表示，尽管短期内经济面的消息令人振奋，但更长期而言注定会让人失望。威廉姆斯在为悉尼麦考瑞大学(Macquarie University)准备的演讲稿中称，人口老龄化和生产率放缓在给全球经济增长减速，美国、欧元区、英国和加拿大的长期年增长趋势水平目前估计仅在1.5%。这只有金融危机前正常增长水平的约一半。在增长如此不振的情况下，货币政策制定者将更加难以管理通胀和保持充分就业。那是因为经济增长下滑，降低了投资需求，从而推低利率，使得央行通过降息来抵消经济冲击的空间变小。


U.S.A5月核心资本财订单和付运齐降，暗示制造业活动失去动能

美国关键的资本财新订单上月意外下降，付运也减少，暗示制造业活动在第二季中失去动能。美国商务部周一报告，扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单5Monthly decline0.2%, for12月以来最大降幅，亦逊于市场预估的增长0.3%。该指针即所谓的核心资本财订单，反映企业支出计划，备受市场关注。4月核心资本财订单被上修为增长0.2%, the previous value is growth0.1%。



XAU London Gold ─ 金价走势呈反复

金价周一跌至近六周低位，一宗大额卖单打击人气，但全球政治不确定性限制跌幅。美联储主席耶伦周二将在欧洲发表讲话，分析师称尽管近期发布的一系列美国经济数据表现疲弱，但交易员预期叶伦将维持对美国经济的乐观看法，这将支撑美联储今年再升息一次、明年升息三次的预测。

图表走势所见，继四月份触高于1295美元后，金价本月早段又再度受制1295Horizontal.MACD指针已跌破讯号线，10Sky shattering25天平均线，示意中短期金价倾向处于跌势。若果以自去年12月份的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平分别为1230and1209Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then it is1188水平。其他支持可参考200Balance moving average1237水平。另外，亦要特别留意5Monthly low1213水平，若然后市跌破此位置，形态上有机会以双顶破颈线继续滑落。上方阻力则预料为1246and1255美元，较大阻力见于25Balance moving average1262and1268Horizontal.



London Gold6month27day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1232 - 1246
Resistance level:1255 – 1268 - 1289
Support bit:1223 – 1216 - 1210


SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
5month30Day - 847.45ton
5month31Day - 847.45ton
6month1Day - 847.45ton
6month2Day - 851.00ton
6month5Day - 851.00ton
6month6Day - 855.16ton
6month7Day - 864.93ton
6month8Day - 867.00ton
6month9Day - 867.00ton
6month12Day - 867.00ton
6month13Day - 867.00ton
6month14Day - 854.87ton
6month15Day - 853.68ton
6month16Day - 853.68ton
6month19Day - 853.68ton
6month20Day - 853.68ton
6month21Day - 853.68ton
6month22Day - 853.98ton
6month23Day - 851.02ton
6month26Day - 853.68ton

6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6 (+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver ─ 银价低位盘整

伦敦白银方面，图表所见，10天已跌破25天平均线，形成利淡交叉，需防范后市还会引发较大下调压力，延伸支撑可看至16.30and5月险守着的16美元关口，进一步将看至15.80美元。另一方面，向上阻力将参考16.80and25Balance moving average17.02美元，较大阻力料为250Balance moving average17.79USD.        

London Silver6month27day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 16.80
Resistance level:17.00 - 17.30
Support bit:16.10 –15.80


iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
6month5Day - 10562.91ton
6month6Day - 10562.91ton
6month7Day - 10562.91ton
6month8Day - 10562.91ton
6month9Day - 10562.91ton
6month12Day - 10562.91ton
6month13Day - 10562.91ton
6month14Day - 10562.91ton
6month15Day - 10457.00ton
6month16Day - 10457.00ton
6month19Day - 10457.00ton
6month20Day - 10504.07ton
6month21Day - 10504.07ton
6month22Day - 10571.73ton
6month23Day - 10571.73ton
6month26Day - 10571.73ton


EUR euro ─ 德拉吉为宽松政策辩护压制欧元

欧元兑美元周一走势承压，因欧洲央行总裁德拉吉发表相对温和言论。德拉吉在里斯本对大学生讲话时提到，超低利率可创造就业，扶持增长并且利于借款方，最终可减少不公平现象。他也反对那些要求迅速退出超宽松政策的呼声，称过早收紧政策将导致衰退再现和不公平更严重。

图表所见，欧元兑美元自年初于1.0339触底后，则维持着反复走高，直至近月处于1.11上方的高位区间窄幅盘整，一再未能向上走出区间的情况下，正酝酿着大幅回调之风险；同时，MACD已跌破讯号线，预示欧元大有机会延续跌势。以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1.0930and1.0820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.07. In addition,4month24日欧元跳空高开，跟4month20Daily high1.0777形成裂口，此位置则视为另一重要支撑。至于上方阻力可参考1.13and1.1430The key is1.15Gateway.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1300 - 1.1430 – 1.1500
support 1.0930 - 1.0820 - 1.0770 – 1.0700


Focus:
Tuesday: Italy6月制造业商业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index
Wednesday: France6Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧eurozone5monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧针对家庭的放款‧Italy6monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
Thursday: Germany7monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧eurozone6Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany6monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
Friday: Germany5Monthly import prices‧实质零售销售‧France5Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧Producer Price Index‧France6monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Germany6Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧意大利第一季公共赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone6monthHICPinitial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPinitial value


Related news
ECB总裁：欧元区收入差距加大是严重不稳定因素，需加以应对
央行月报：德国第二季经济强劲扩张，受制造业表现活络提振


JPY yen ─ 日圆跌势尚告受限

美元兑日圆周二升至近五周高位，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦将发表讲话，她的讲话料将突显其对美国经济前景的积极看法。她周二稍后将在伦敦皇家学院(Royal Academy)参加讨论。尽管美国最近经济数据疲弱，耶伦若发表乐观看法，则将支持美联储对今年再升息一次的预测。美元兑日圆周二稍早高见112.075, for5month24日以来最高。不过，周一公布的美国数据让投资者谨慎对待买入美元。美国关键的资本财新订单5月意外下降，付运也减少，暗示制造业活动在第二季中失去动能。美国数据表现疲软，引发对于通胀下滑及经济成长乏力的疑虑。美联储官员仍坚持鹰派立场。纽约联邦储备银行总裁杜德利在周一刊出的评论中表示，尽管自12月以来美联储已升息三次，但过去一年金融环境已有所放松，这是收紧政策的另一个理由。

美元兑日圆走势，技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域回落，或见美元兑日圆近期的涨势可能要稍缓一下。较近支持先参考25Balance moving average110.80，关键则在位于109.20of250天平均线，上周已见汇价守稳250天线，且于四月份汇价亦已曾一度触碰，但未有明确跌破此指标下，美元之后大举反扑，冲上114日圆上方。MACD指针已上破讯号线，中短期而言，仍会预计有延续走高的倾向。较近阻力预估在112水平，不远处亦见有位于111.85of100天平均线，或会对近期走势造成一定程度的阻碍；下一级则参照五月份未能突破的114.40。


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 111.85/112.00 - 114.40
support 110.80 - 109.20



Focus:
6month29day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan5Monthly retail sales annual rate
6month30day(five): Japan5All monthly household expenses‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧工业生产初值‧whole countryCPIthe annual rate‧Japan6Overall Tokyo regionCPIthe annual rate‧日本一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值


GBP pound ─ 文翠珊与DUP敲定协议，英镑持稳

英国首相文翠珊与北爱尔兰民主联盟 party(DUP)达成支持保守党少数派政府的协议，给英国退欧磋商期间消除了一层不确定性。英国首相文翠珊和北爱尔兰民主联盟 party(DUP)结束了两周的磋商，达成协议。她领导的保守党在6month8日大选中失去了多数议席地位。英镑自选举以来反弹了逾1美分，因投资者上调了英国升息的预期。目前英国利率处于纪录低位。上次会议上英国央行更多的决策者赞同该行进行加息。该行首席经济学家上周表示，他预计今年稍晚投票赞成加息。本周稍晚，英国将公布首季经济产出、消费者信心调查、企业投资和经常帐数据。

英镑兑美元走势，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655。当前较近阻力会先看1.29，另一个瞩目位置则见于1.3050水平，此前历经多日仍是难越雷池，若后市未能穿越此区，需防范回挫风险。下方较近支持先看1.2690，较瞩目的支持则估计为200Balance moving average1.250，本周英镑曾下探此指标，但未有跌破，倘若后市终可下破此区，料将引发较显著的沽压，下一级将看至1.25and1.2360Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2900 - 1.3050* - 1.3230 – 1.3500
support 1.2690 – 1.2625 – 1.2500 - 1.2360


Focus:
6month29day(four): UK5Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
6month30day(five)：英国第一季GDPSeasonal rate‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡



CHF Swiss franc ─ 政府调降2017年经济增长展望，预期通胀保持低迷

技术图表所见，自去年底大幅上涨后，美元兑瑞郎在过去几个月呈现着一浪低于一浪的下跌行情，尤其这两个月的短暂上冲亦未能明确突破1.01水平，更促成了双顶下挫的型态，以上述双顶型态的幅度250点计算，延伸目标将为0.96水平。另外，若果以2015year5Monthly low0.9065Until last year12Monthly high1.0344Calculate the cumulative increase in price,50%and61.8%的调整幅度为0.9710and0.9560。较大支持则可参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数出现反弹，需防范短期或会先行整固，较近阻力可参考0.9770，至于上述的双顶型态的颈线位置为0.9850，将会作为重要阻力参考，较大阻力预估为250Balance moving average0.9920Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9770 - 0.9850  0.9920
support 0.9600 - 0.9560 – 0.9251

Focus:
6month28day(three)UBS Group(UBS)5Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Switzerland6Monthly Investor Confidence Index
6month30day(five)Switzerland6monthKOF领先成长指标



AUD AUD ─ 澳元渐呈回调压力

澳元周一走稳，因之前公布的美国经济数据疲软，并且全球波动性偏低刺激利差交易。

技术图表所见，现阶段较近支撑预估在50Balance moving average0.7480and0.7330水平，关键支持则回看0.7160水平。向上则留意近日屡试不破的0.7640水平，若未能更上一层楼，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈现初步回落迹象，或见澳元将迎来调整。至于较大阻力预估在0.7680and0.7750Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7640* – 0.7680 – 0.7750
support 0.7480 - 0.7330 - 0.7160


NZD New Zealand dollars ─ 纽元跳涨，此前央行对成长前景表示乐观

新西兰统计局周二公布的数据显示，5The monthly trade surplus is1.03亿纽元，截至5月的年度贸易逆差为37.5Billion New Zealand dollars.5月出口为49.5亿纽元，进口为48.5Billion New Zealand dollars.

技术图表所见，汇价已上破多组平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数均告上扬，预估纽元仍会倾向继续探高。纽元兑美元的关键支撑料为0.68水平。以2015年第三季至去年第三季的累积升幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐水平则会分别看至0.6840and0.6690水平。另一方面，上方阻力则瞩目于上周高位0.7320，若可破位走高，下个目标可看至0.7380and0.75Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7320 - 0.7380 - 0.7500
support 0.6800 – 0.6690 – 0.6500


Related news
New Zealand5Monthly imports are48.5One billion, with exports of49.5Billion
New Zealand5The monthly trade surplus is1.03Billions of New Zealand dollars
新西兰截至5月的年度贸易逆差为37.5Billions of New Zealand dollars


Focus:
6month29day(four): New Zealand6monthNBNZBusiness confidence index‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
6month30day(five): New Zealand5Monthly building permit rate  



CAD Cad ─ 油价反弹提振商品货币

美元兑加元走势，在四月低位1.3220，汇价跌势止步于200天平均线，随后一个月时间大幅走高至迫近1.38水平，至近月重新回挫，并于本周一同时跌破上升趋向线及200天平均线，令美元兑加元大有机会延展进一步弱势，而下一个焦点将是1.3220，若再而跌破此区，将更为强化续跌机率。以去年5Monthly low1.2458Until this year5Monthly high1.3793Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水平为1.3290Expand to50%and61.8%则分别看至1.3130and1.2970. In addition,1.3060为另一较长期上升趋向线所在位置，亦为瞩目支持参考。上方阻力则回看200Balance moving average position1.3330For materials with high resistance1.35and1.3550Horizontal.



Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3330 – 1.3500 - 1.3550
support 1.3220 - 1.3130 – 1.3060 - 1.2970


Focus:        
6month30day(five): Canada4monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada5月工业产品价格‧原材料价格




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)