Crossing the Sea 2017year 6month26day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

6

month

2

6

day

Focus this week:
6month26day(Monday)
U.S.A5Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A5Monthly Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index

6month27day(Tuesday)
U.S.A4monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities
U.S.A4monthCaseShillerMonthly rate of unadjusted housing price index without seasonal adjustment
U.S.A4monthCaseShillerAnnual rate of housing price index
U.S.A6Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A6Monthly Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Composite Manufacturing Index

6month28day(Wednesday)
U.S.A5Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A5Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A5Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

6month29day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
美国第一季商业获利修订
Season 1 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
美国第一季最终销售终值
美国第一季消费者支出终值
Season 1 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
Season 1 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
US Season 1 CorePCEFinal value of price index

6month30day(Friday)
U.S.A5Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A5Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A5月经调整后的个人支出月率
U.S.A5Monthly CorePCEprice index
U.S.A5monthPCEprice index
U.S.A5Dallas Federal ReservePCE
U.S.A6Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A6月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值

Important economic data released today:   
16：00 Germany6monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧forecast114.2‧Previous value114.6
16：00 Germany6monthIfoCurrent situation index‧Previous value123.2
16：00 Germany6monthIfoExpected index‧Previous value106.5
16：30 britain5月银行业者协会(BBA)Number of approved mortgage loans‧Previous value40.750千宗
20：30 U.S.A5月建筑许可年率修订‧Previous value116.810000 households
20：30 U.S.A5月建筑许可月率修订‧Previous value-4.9%
20：30 U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders‧forecast-0.5%‧Previous value-0.8%
20：30 U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value-0.5%
20：30 U.S.A5Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧Previous value-0.9%
20：30 U.S.A5Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A5Monthly Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index‧Front value positive0.49


6month23day
LondongoldMorning order price:1256.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1255.70



Today's Introduction
last weekforeign exchange市场整体较为淡静，数据面影响有限，反而各主要央行官员的言论则掀起一番涟漪。美国纽约联邦储备银行总裁杜德利周一表示，美国通胀率略低，但随着就业市场持续改善，通胀应会随着薪资一起上升，让美联储能够持续缓步收紧货币政策。不过，尽管近期多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，但美元并未受到很大提振，美汇指数在98关口前遇阻后，近日窄幅争持于97区间。尽管近期通胀回软，但上周多位美联储官员对年底前再次加息表示支持，美元因此反弹。不过，市场开始怀疑，目前美国经济温和扩张，是否可为进一步加息提供理据，令美元的涨势减退。最令市场意外的是，英国央行官员亦发表了相当鹰派的言论，至于欧洲央行此前也透露出缩减货币刺激的信号。英国央行首席经济学家霍尔丹(AndyHaldane)周三发表鹰派讲话，与他一直被认为是持鸽派观点的名声相悖。霍尔丹表示，他可能在今年投票支持加息一次。此外，据彭博报导，欧洲央行(ECB)在本月稍早的会议上排除进一步降息的可能性。展望下周，美国将公布第一季GDP终值，以及个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数、耐用品订单等重要数据；日本将公布CPI、中国将公布制造业PMI。此外，多位美联储官员将发表演说。


XAU London Gold ─ 美元疲软提振金价回升

伦敦黄金近日小幅反弹，因美元走软以及地缘政治事件引发的避险情绪提振了黄金的避险魅力。图表走势所见，继四月份触高于1295美元后，金价本月早段又再度受制1295Horizontal.MACD指针已跌破讯号线，10Sky shattering25天平均线，示意中短期金价倾向处于跌势。若果以自去年12月份的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水准分别为1230and1209Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then it is1188水平。其它支持可参考200Balance moving average1237水平。另外，亦要特别留意5Monthly low1213水平，若然后市跌破此位置，形态上有机会以双顶破颈线继续滑落。上方阻力则预料为25Balance moving average1263and1270，关键参考1288Horizontal.


        
London Gold6month26 – 30Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1266 – 1272 – 1290 – 1317
Support bit:1252 – 1246 – 1234 – 1225

London Gold6month26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1245 – 1265
Resistance level:1275 – 1288
Support bit:1235 – 1221



SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
5month30Day -847.45ton
5month31Day -847.45ton
6month1Day -847.45ton
6month2Day -851.00ton
6month5Day -851.00ton
6month6Day -855.16ton
6month7Day -864.93ton
6month8Day -867.00ton
6month9Day -867.00ton
6month12Day -867.00ton
6month13Day -867.00ton
6month14Day -854.87ton
6month15Day -853.68ton
6month16Day -853.68ton
6month19Day -853.68ton
6month20Day -853.68ton
6month21Day -853.68ton
6month22Day -853.98ton
6month23Day -851.02ton


6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6 (+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver ─ 银价低位盘整

伦敦白银方面，图表所见，10天已跌破25天平均线，形成利淡交叉，需防范后市还会引发较大下调压力，延伸支撑可看至16.20and5月险守着的16美元关口，进一步将看至15.80美元。另一方面，向上阻力将参考16.90and25Balance moving average17.10美元，较大阻力料为250Balance moving average17.85USD.


        
London Silver6month26 – 30Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.10 – 17.60 – 18.30 – 18.60
Support bit:16.10 – 15.60 – 15.20 – 14.90

London Silver6month26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 17.00
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.60
Support bit:16.10 – 15.70


iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
6month5Day -10562.91ton
6month6Day -10562.91ton
6month7Day -10562.91ton
6month8Day -10562.91ton
6month9Day -10562.91ton
6month12Day -10562.91ton
6month13Day -10562.91ton
6month14Day -10562.91ton
6month15Day -10457.00ton
6month16Day -10457.00ton
6month19Day -10457.00ton
6month20Day -10504.07ton
6month21Day -10504.07ton
6month22Day -10571.73ton
6month23Day -10571.73ton


EUR euro ─ 欧元区间争持

欧元受最近公布的强劲数据所支撑，随着关于欧洲央行量化宽松政策的讨论升温，预计欧元将对数据方面的意外情况会更加敏感。图表所见，欧元兑美元自年初于1.0339触底后，则维持着反复走高，直至近月处于1.11上方的高位区间窄幅盘整，一再未能向上走出区间的情况下，正酝酿着大幅回调之风险；同时，MACD已跌破讯号线，预示欧元大有机会延续跌势。以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回吐水准为1.0930and1.0820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.07. In addition,4month24日欧元跳空高开，跟4month20Daily high1.0777形成裂口，此位置则视为另一重要支撑。至于上方阻力可参考1.13and1.1430The key is1.15Gateway.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1300 – 1.1430 – 1.1500
support 1.0930 – 1.0820 – 1.0770 – 1.0700


Focus:
Monday: Germany6monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index
Tuesday: Italy6月制造业商业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index
Wednesday: France6Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧eurozone5monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧针对家庭的放款‧Italy6monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
Thursday: Germany7monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧eurozone6Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany6monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
Friday: Germany5Monthly import prices‧实质零售销售‧France5Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧Producer Price Index‧France6monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Germany6Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧意大利第一季公共赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone6monthHICPinitial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPinitial value



JPY yen ─ 月报：政府六个月来首度调高整体经济评估

美元兑日圆走势，技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域回落，或见美元兑日圆近期的涨势可能要稍缓一下。较近支持先参考25Balance moving average110.80，关键则在位于109.20of250天平均线，上周已见汇价守稳250天线，且于四月份汇价亦已曾一度触碰，但未有明确跌破此指标下，美元之后大举反扑，冲上114日圆上方。MACD指针已上破讯号线，中短期而言，仍会预计有延续走高的倾向。较近阻力预估在112水准，不远处亦见有位于111.85of100天平均线，或会对近期走势造成一定程度的阻碍；下一级则参照五月份未能突破的114.40。


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 111.85/112.00 – 114.40
support 110.80 – 109.20


Focus:
6month29day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan5Monthly retail sales annual rate
6month30day(five): Japan5All monthly household expenses‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧工业生产初值‧whole countryCPIthe annual rate‧Japan6Overall Tokyo regionCPIthe annual rate‧日本一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值


GBP pound ─ 英镑窄幅整理

在英国方面，上周八位委员中有三位支持升息，外界升息预期激增。央行总裁卡尼极力降火，称目前并不是升息的适当时机，他的理由包括薪资增速疲软及英退的可能冲击。英国央行一边面临的是公投后英镑大跌造成物价上涨，另一边则是经济丧失去年的多数动能后，薪资增长放缓的问题。但央行首席经济学家霍尔丹随后表态，他可能在今年投票支持升息一次，出人意料地由鸽变鹰。霍尔丹的谈话被视为委员会内部想法改变的第一个迹象。赞成加息的委员福布斯，在下周离任前重申其忧心英镑疲软会持续推升通胀，她说英国利率‘开始上调’不应再推迟了。她的空缺将由关注贸易和薪资成长领域的伦敦政经学院教授邓雷罗接任。

英镑兑美元走势，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655。当前较近阻力会先看1.29，另一个瞩目位置则见于1.3050水平，此前历经多日仍是难越雷池，若后市未能穿越此区，需防范回挫风险。下方较近支持先看1.2690，较瞩目的支持则估计为200Balance moving average1.250，本周英镑曾下探此指标，但未有跌破，倘若后市终可下破此区，料将引发较显著的沽压，下一级将看至1.25and1.2360Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2900 – 1.3050* – 1.3230 – 1.3500
support 1.2690 – 1.2625 – 1.2500 – 1.2360


Focus:
6month27day(two): UK6monthCBIRetail sales difference
6month29day(four): UK5Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
6month30day(five)：英国第一季GDPSeasonal rate‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡


CHF Swiss franc ─ 政府调降2017年经济增长展望，预期通胀保持低迷

技术图表所见，自去年底大幅上涨后，美元兑瑞郎在过去几个月呈现着一浪低于一浪的下跌行情，尤其这两个月的短暂上冲亦未能明确突破1.01水平，更促成了双顶下挫的型态，以上述双顶型态的幅度250点计算，延伸目标将为0.96水平。另外，若果以2015year5Monthly low0.9065Until last year12Monthly high1.0344Calculate the cumulative increase in price,50%and61.8%的调整幅度为0.9710and0.9560。较大支持则可参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数出现反弹，需防范短期或会先行整固，较近阻力可参考0.9770，至于上述的双顶型态的颈线位置为0.9850，将会作为重要阻力参考，较大阻力预估为250Balance moving average0.9920Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9770 – 0.9850 – 0.9920
support 0.9600 – 0.9560 – 0.9251


Focus:
6month28day(three)UBS Group(UBS)5Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Switzerland6Monthly Investor Confidence Index
6month30day(five)Switzerland6monthKOF领先成长指标


AUD AUD ─ 澳元渐呈回调压力

技术图表所见，现阶段较近支撑预估在50Balance moving average0.7480and0.7330水平，关键支持则回看0.7160水平。向上则留意近日屡试不破的0.7640水准，若未能更上一层楼，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈现初步回落迹象，或见澳元将迎来调整。至于较大阻力预估在0.7680and0.7750Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7640* – 0.7680 – 0.7750
support 0.7480 – 0.7330 – 0.7160


NZD New Zealand dollars ─ 纽元跳涨，此前央行对成长前景表示乐观

纽西兰联储周四维持指针利率在纪录低位1.75%，并重申将在相当长时间内保持货币政策不变。纽西兰联储主席惠勒在与利率决定同时发布的一份声明中称，仍存在众多不确定性，货币政策可能需要做出相应的调整。纽西兰联储称，长期通胀预期仍然牢牢锚定在2%左右，中期内未来总体通胀将达到目标区间的中点。纽西兰联储称通胀上升主要是因临时性因素所致，可能导致总体通胀出现一定程度的变化。纽西兰房价涨势已有所缓和，预计涨势将会继续放缓。此外，惠勒表示，纽元下滑将扶助令经济成长前景恢复平衡，纽元自5月以来上升约3%。路透调查的26位经济分析师均预计，纽西兰联储会维持利率不变，不过，有四位预期该联储可能最早在明年第一季升息。

纽西兰联储在例行政策会议上没有明显口头打压纽元，之后纽元兑美元显著上涨，至周五高见至0.7290。纽西兰联储就增长前景以及当前汇率的影响释放出乐观论调后，纽元“空头”被轧平。虽然纽西兰联储维持中性立场并且仍承诺长期维持低利率，但并未对近期纽元上涨发出强烈怨言，这使得纽元在央行决定公布后上涨。技术图表所见，汇价已上破多组平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数均告上扬，预估纽元仍会倾向继续探高。纽元兑美元的关键支撑料为0.68水平。以2015年第三季至去年第三季的累积升幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐水平则会分别看至0.6840and0.6690水平。另一方面，上方阻力则瞩目于上周高位0.7320，若可破位走高，下个目标可看至0.7380and0.75Horizontal.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7320 – 0.7380 – 0.7500
support 0.6800 – 0.6690 – 0.6500


Focus:
6month27day(two): New Zealand5Monthly imports‧Export‧trade balance‧by5Annual trade balance of the month
6month29day(four): New Zealand6monthNBNZBusiness confidence index‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
6month30day(five): New Zealand5Monthly building permit rate  


CAD Cad ─ 油价反弹提振商品货币

美元兑加元走势，在四月低位1.3220，汇价跌势止步于200天平均线，随后一个月时间大幅走高至迫近1.38水准，至近月重新回挫，并于本周一同时跌破上升趋向线及200天平均线，令美元兑加元大有机会延展进一步弱势，而下一个焦点将是1.3220，若再而跌破此区，将更为强化续跌机率。以去年5Monthly low1.2458Until this year5Monthly high1.3793Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水准为1.3290Expand to50%and61.8%则分别看至1.3130and1.2970. In addition,1.3060为另一较长期上升趋向线所在位置，亦为瞩目支持参考。上方阻力则回看200Balance moving average position1.3330For materials with high resistance1.35and1.3550Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3330 – 1.3500 – 1.3550
support 1.3220 – 1.3130 – 1.3060 – 1.2970


Focus:
6month23day(five): Canada5monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

6month30day(five): Canada4monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada5月工业产品价格‧原材料价格

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

不错不错啊[s:139] [s:116]