yen : 续处争持待变 △(9month12day)

Focus:
•厌恶风险情绪仍有望支撑日圆
•阻力参考106.40•105.00•104.00
•支撑参考108.80•110.00/70•112.00

日本政府周五公布修正后数据显示，4-6月经济较前季下滑0.7%，降幅小于预估的下滑0.8%，该数据为经价格调整的4-6Monthly Gross Domestic Product(GDP)实质成长率修正值，初值为下滑0.6%。该数值为一年来首次季度下滑。该季经济环比年率修正后为下滑3.0%, initial value is a downward trend2.4%，预估中值为修正至下滑3.3%。4-6月民间部门消费修正后为较上季减少0.5%, initial value is decrease0.5%。资本支出修正后为较上季下滑0.5%, initial value is a downward trend0.2%, estimated to be a decline1.6%。4-6月民间库存对GDP成长率的贡献度修正为0.0个百分点，与预估及初值一致。日本4-6monthGDP物价平减指数修正后为较上年同期下滑1.5%, initial value is a downward trend1.6%。日本第二季经济萎缩程度大于先前初估值，强化了日本在面对出口停滞和企业资本支出疲缓下，经济正陷入衰退的疑虑。

受股市走软和美国贸易逆差扩大的拖累，日圆一度升见106.04，美国商务部周四公布7The monthly trade deficit has widened to622100 million US dollars, for2007year3月以来最阔。初请失业金人数的公布也加剧了美元抛压，美国劳工部公布美国9month6The number of people receiving unemployment benefits at the beginning of the current week has decreased44.5Ten thousand, estimated to be44万，前一周上修为45.1万。续领失业金人数跳涨，证明就业市场转而恶化。图表分析所见，由6月份至今亦看到200天平均线可算为一明确之分水岭，多重走势之阻力及支持亦止步于此区，目前200The balance moving average is located at106.80，而周二及周三亦见在此区前止住升幅，遂亦会成后市关键阻力，破位可望伸目标标至105and104关口。另一方面，支持位则以25The balance moving average is important and currently in a108.80水平，同样亦为周一之低位，在RSIandSTC亦仅在横行之情况下，方向未明显，亦只有将目前形势暂定义为区间待破，若然穿破108.80，下级支撑将要数至8月份密集低位110.00-110.70，下一重要支撑可看至112Gateway.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)