Crossing the Sea2017year6month19day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

6

month

19

day

本周关注焦点

：

6month20day(Tuesday)
美国第一季流动帐平衡

6month21day(Wednesday)
U.S.A5Monthly Housing Sales

6month22day(Thursday)
U.S.A4monthFHFA房屋价格
U.S.A4monthFHFAHouse Price Index
U.S.A5Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

6month23day(Friday)
U.S.A6monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A6monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A5Monthly sales of new houses

Important economic data released today:

英国脱欧谈判展开
06：00新西兰第二季WestpacConsumer confidence index‧Previous value111.9
07：50Japan5Monthly trade balance‧Previous value4,817Yiyi surplus
07：50Japan5Monthly export annual rate‧Previous value+7.5%
07：50Japan5Monthly import annual rate‧Previous value+15.1%
09：30Australia5Monthly sales of new cars‧Previous value+0.3%
09：30China5month70Monthly Report on Residential Sales Prices in Major and Medium sized Cities



6month16day
LondongoldMorning order price:1256.60
London gold afternoon fixing price:1255.40

XAU

London Gold

-

美元得益缩表憧憬，金价维持弱势

多家央行上周召开政策会议，市场人士最为瞩目的美联储会议一如市场预期加息，不过，声明却不是预期的那么鸽派，而且还公布了缩表计划方面的更多细节，同时，美联储主席耶伦则一改以往的鸽派立场，在新闻发布会上发表鹰派言论，这均支撑美元重新企稳。联储一如预期在三个月内第二次升息，联邦基金利率目标区间上调25Basis points, to1.00-1.25%，并预计今年再加息一次，显示美联储基本未受近期经济数据良莠不齐的影响。联储还发布了首份缩减4.2万亿美元公债和抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)组合计划的明确纲要。美元随即从七个月低位反弹。接受路透访查的21家初级交易商中，有14家预期美联储将在9month19-20日的政策会议上宣布开启资产负债表正常化进程。其余预期联储将在12month12-13日的会议上采取该举措。

伦敦黄金周五触及5month24Daily low1251美元，本周跌幅约1%。美元走强及周四公布的美国数据表现强劲压低金价。美国初请失业金人数上周降幅超预期，表明就业市场闲置进一步减少，这可能为美国联邦储备理事会(FED)在通胀放缓的情况下，年内再次升息提供理据。图表走势所见，继四月份触高于1295美元后，金价本月早段又再度受制1295水平，并于随后持续回挫，至今已见至1250Near the horizontal.MACD指针已跌破讯号线，示意中短期金价倾向处于跌势。若果以自五月份的累积涨幅计算，61.8%的回调水平为1245水平。下一级支持预估在200Balance moving average1238水平。另外，亦要特别留意5Monthly low1213水平，若然后市跌破此位置，形态上有机会以双顶破颈线继续滑落。上方阻力则预料为1265and1273，关键仍会参考1295Horizontal.

London Gold6month19 – 23Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1260– 1268–1288 –1317
Support bit:1238–1230 –1216 –1202

London Gold6month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1246 –1260
Resistance level:1267–1288 –1300
Support bit:1241–1230 –1221

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
5month22Day - 852.48ton
5month23Day - 847.45ton
5month24Day - 847.45ton
5month25Day - 847.45ton
5month26Day - 847.45ton
5month30Day - 847.45ton
5month31Day - 847.45ton
6month1Day - 847.45ton
6month2Day - 851.00ton
6month5Day - 851.00ton
6month6Day - 855.16ton
6month7Day - 864.93ton
6month8Day - 867.00ton
6month9Day - 867.00ton
6month12Day - 867.00ton
6month13Day - 867.00ton
6month14Day - 854.87ton
6month15Day - 853.68ton
6month16Day - 853.68ton

6Monthly goldfuturesDue date:6month28day
6Monthly goldoptionDue date:5month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton

XAG

London Silver

-

银价低位盘整

伦敦白银方面，图表所见，上升趋向线目前在17.26美元，在上周已明确跌破后，需防范后市还会引发较大下调压力，延伸支撑可看至16.30and5月险守着的16美元关口，进一步将看至15.60美元。另一方面，向上阻力将参考25Balance moving average17.10美元，较大阻力料为250Balance moving average17.90USD.

London Silver6month19 – 23Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.00–17.60 –18.30 –18.60
Support bit:16.10–15.90 –15.20 –14.90

London Silver6month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 –17.00
Resistance level:17.30–17.60 –18.00
Support bit:16.10–15.80 –15.20

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
5month30Day - 10605.56ton
5month31Day - 10605.56ton
6month1Day - 10605.56ton
6month2Day - 10601.17ton
6month5Day - 10562.91ton
6month6Day - 10562.91ton
6month7Day - 10562.91ton
6month8Day - 10562.91ton
6month9Day - 10562.91ton
6month12Day - 10562.91ton
6month13Day - 10562.91ton
6month14Day - 10562.91ton
6month15Day - 10457.00ton
6month16Day - 10457.00ton

EUR

euro

-

联储声明暗示将继续收紧政策，美元上扬


欧元兑美元走势，周五持稳于1.1150水平附近，远低于周三触及的七个月高点1.1295。图表所见，欧元兑美元自年初于1.0339触底后，则维持着反复走高，直至近月处于1.1150上方的高位区间窄幅盘整，一再未能向上走出区间的情况下，正酝酿着大幅回调之风险；同时，MACD已跌破讯号线，RSI及随机指数亦处于下跌，均预示欧元大有机会延续跌势。以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1.0930and1.0820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.07. In addition,4month24日欧元跳空高开，跟4month20Daily high1.0777形成裂口，此位置则视为另一重要支撑。至于上方阻力可参考1.13and1.1430The key is1.15Gateway.

Focus:
6month20day(two): Germany5monthPPI‧eurozone4Monthly current account
6month22day(four): France6Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧eurozone6Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
6month23day(five)：法国第一季GDPQuarterly rate final value‧France6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Italy4Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1300 –1.1430 –1.1500
support1.0930 –1.0820 –1.0770 –1.0700

JPY

yen

-

日本央行维持政策不变日圆下滑

日本央行周五维持货币政策不变，短期利率目标保持在负0.1%不变，维持以每年80万亿日圆左右的速度购债的承诺不变。日本央行维持对经济的评估不变，称日本经济一直走向温和扩张。在日本央行宣布维持货币政策不变后，美元兑日圆上涨至111.30水平上方，这是6month2The highest level in recent days.

美元兑日圆走势，技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数暂见自超卖区域出现初步回升迹象，同时见美元兑日圆在上周尚未有跌破250天平均线，此指针具有一定启示作用，于四月份汇价已曾一度触碰250天平均线，但未有明确跌破此指标下，美元之后大举反扑，冲上114日圆上方，近日再度到迫近前位于109of250天平均线，若然再次未有跌破，恐防淡仓会趁机轧平离场，亦即美元兑日圆很大机会将重新反扑。较近阻力预估在112水平，下一级则参照五月份未能突破的114.40。另一方面，若然250天平均线意外失守，下延较大支撑预估为108and106.50Horizontal.

Focus:
6month19day(one): Japan5Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate
6month20day(two): Japan6Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index
6month23day(five): Japan6Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance112.00 –114.40 –115.50
support108.80 –108.00 –106.50

GBP

pound

-

央行三位政策委员支持升息


英镑兑美元走势，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655。当前较近阻力会先看1.29，另一个瞩目位置则见于1.3050水平，此前历经多日仍是难越雷池，若后市未能穿越此区，需防范回挫风险。下方留意上升趋向线1.2680，若持于此区下方，料英镑仍有进一步探低倾向，延伸支持可留意100Balance moving average1.2620Next level will see1.25and1.2360Horizontal.

Focus:
6month21day(three): UK5monthPSNB‧PSNCR
6month22day(four): UK6monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3050* –1.3230 –1.3500 –1.3655
support1.2730 –1.2580 –1.2360

CHF

Swiss franc

-

瑞士央行维持活期存款利率在负0.75%unchanged


美元兑瑞郎方面，技术图表所见，自去年底大幅上涨后，美元兑瑞郎在过去几个月呈现着一浪低于一浪的下跌行情，尤其这两个月的短暂上冲亦未能明确突破1.01水平，更促成了双顶下挫的型态，以上述双顶型态的幅度250点计算，延伸目标将为0.96水平。另外，若果以2015year5Monthly low0.9065Until last year12Monthly high1.0344Calculate the cumulative increase in price,50%and61.8%的调整幅度为0.9710and0.9560。较大支持则可参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数出现反弹，需防范短期或会先行整固，较近阻力可参考0.9760，至于上述的双顶型态的颈线位置为0.9850，将会作为重要阻力参考，较大阻力预估为250Balance moving average0.9920Horizontal.

Focus:
6month22day(four)Switzerland5Monthly trade balance

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9760 –0.9850 –0.9920
support0.9600 –0.9560 –0.9251

AUD

AUD

-

受乐观就业数据提振跳涨


As seen in the technical chart, from2016year12月，澳元兑美元多次下探0.7160支撑，未有破位下则引伸大规模反扑，至今年3month21Daily contact0.7750，之后澳元反复滑落。现阶段较近支撑预估在50Balance moving average0.7480and0.7330水平，关键支持则回看0.7160水平。向上则留意0.76水平，若未能更上一层楼，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈现初步回落迹象，或见澳元将迎来调整。至于较大阻力预估在0.7680and0.7750Horizontal.

Focus:
6month19day(one): Australia5Monthly sales of new cars
6month20day(two)：澳洲第一季房屋价格指数季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7600 –0.7680 –0.7750
support0.7480 –0.7330 –0.7160

NZD

New Zealand dollars

-

因疲弱数据走低


路透对分析师的调查显示，新西兰央行周四召开货币政策会议，外界普遍预期其将把指针利率维持在纪录低位1.75%不变。所有24位受访分析师均预期，新西兰央行将在6month22日会议上按兵不动；除去一位分析师外，其他所有分析师均预计新西兰央行直至今年底都将维持利率不变。20位分析师中的14位预计，该央行将在2018年第三季升息。

技术图表所见，汇价已上破多组平均线，其中上周五更成功突破250天平均线，预估纽元倾向继续探高。预估纽元兑美元的关键支撑在0.68水平。以2015年第三季至去年第三季的累积升幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐水平则会分别看至0.6840and0.6690水平。预期进一步支撑将参考0.65水平。上方阻力则瞩目于0.7250，22月下旬多番上探亦未能成功闯过，若今趟可成功破位，料纽元仍可望延续反扑进程，下个目标可看至0.7380and0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
6month19day(one): New Zealand Season 2WestpacConsumer confidence index
6month22day(four)：新西兰央行利率决定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7250 –0.7380 –0.7500
support0.6800 –0.6690 –0.6500

CAD

Cad

-

央行基调转变，加元大幅攀升


美元兑加元走势，在四月低位1.3220，汇价跌势止步于200天平均线，随后一个月时间大幅走高至迫近1.38水平，至近月重新回挫，并于本周一同时跌破上升趋向线及200天平均线，令美元兑加元大有机会延展进一步弱势，而下一个焦点将是1.3220，若再而跌破此区，将更为强化续跌机率。以去年5Monthly low1.2458Until this year5Monthly high1.3793Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水平为1.3290Expand to50%and61.8%则分别看至1.3130and1.2970. In addition,1.3060为另一较长期上升趋向线所在位置，亦为瞩目支持参考。上方阻力则回看200Balance moving average position1.3330For materials with high resistance1.35and1.3550Horizontal.

Focus:
6month20day(two): Canada4Monthly wholesale trade rate
6month22day(four): Canada4Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
6month23day(five): Canada5monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3330 –1.3500 –1.3550
support1.3220 –1.3130 –1.3060 –1.2970

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(

The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks

)