yen : (9month1day)

Japan7Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Growth compared to the same period last year2.4%，增幅高于市场预期的2.3%。该年增率齐平1997year10月增幅，且为1992year6Monthly growth2.5%以来的最大增幅，6Monthly CoreCPIThe increase is1.9%。8Tokyo Regional CoreCPIGrowth compared to the same period last year1.5%，低于市场预估的成长1.7%。通胀数据印证了日本可能面临衰退之际，crude oil与食品价格高涨冲击消费者支出，估计此数据不太可能改变日本央行暂将维持利率不变的看法，央行将权衡经济成长与通膨上扬的风险。CPI年增率破2%，可能促使日本央行在短时间内升息，但央行持续表示高油价的冲击未来将会消退，让日本央行按兵不动的因素是经济的下滑风险。

波浪理论分析，日圆仍运行大型CWithin the waves(3)Within the waves2伸延浪。日圆在3month17Daily high95.70完成整个大型BWaves. from95.70开始为大型C浪，即由95.70to5month2Daily low105.68为大型CWithin the waves(1)Waves,105.68to5month12Daily high102.56为大型CWithin the waves(2)Within the waves(a)Waves,102.56to6month16Daily low108.58为大型CWithin the waves(2)Within the waves(b)Waves,108.58to7month16Daily high103.76为大型CWithin the waves(2)Within the waves(c)Waves. from103.76to8month15Daily low110.65为大型CWithin the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,110.65至现在仍为大型CWithin the waves(3)Within the waves2伸延浪。预料此第2伸延浪将仍在107-108水平运行，要待第2伸延浪确认运行完毕，大型CWithin the waves(3)Within the waves3伸延浪即下跌浪方会展开。

图表走势所见，日圆在八月份已在一稳定区域中游走至今，阻力明显为250Balance moving average,8month13Daily and21日亦在此线受限，目前则见250The antenna is in108水平；另一方则为110-110.50区域，三度探试亦成功反弹，最近一次探低就是上周一触及110.28。倘若日圆可升破108，将可望突围伸展升幅，技术上200点延伸目标将为106水平。期间亦要关注200The balance moving average is located at106.50水平。相反，若见110.66之上月低位亦失守，则可望延伸跌至至112or112.60Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)