euro : (8month25day)

Think tanksZEW经济研究院上周公布的一项备受关注的调查显示，8月德国投资者对于该国经济前景的信心有所复苏，反弹幅度超出预期。ZEW称根据对297名分析师和投资者的调查，8月德国经济预期指数升至负55.5, from7月所及的纪录低位负63.9反弹。市场原先预估为升至负62.。德国经济现况指数从7Of17.0Downward to negative9.2, far below the estimated10.0。然而，周五数据则令欧元再度承压，欧元区6月工业订单较前月下降0.3%，为欧元区经济放缓提供进一步佐证。

波浪理论分析，欧元仍运行或刚运行完大型第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)Stretching within the waves(c)浪。欧元整个大型上升浪的第(III)浪顶在2004year12月的高位1.3666出现，由1.3666to05year11month15The low point of the day1.1640For the large section(IV)Waves,1.1640开始为大型上升浪的第(V)浪，由1.1640to06year1month25Daily high1.2323为第(V)Within the waves1Waves.1.2323to06year2month27Daily low1.1825为第(V)Within the waves2Waves,1.1825to06year6month5Daily high1.2976为第3浪，由1.2976to06year10month13Daily low1.2483为第4Waves,1.2483to12month4Daily high1.3367为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(1)Stretching waves,1.3367to07year6month12Daily low1.3262为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(2)Stretching waves,1.3262to08year4month22Daily high1.6018为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(3)Stretching waves,1.6018开始至现在有机会仍为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)伸延浪。即由1.6018to6month13Daily low1.5302为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)Stretching within the waves(a)Waves,1.5302to7month15Daily high1.6037为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)Stretching within the waves(b)Waves. from1.6037至现在为第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)Stretching within the waves(c)浪。预料若欧元进一步下跌，欧元将下试以第(3)伸延浪计算回吐61.8%by1.4315。但上周最低的1.4628刚好是以第(3)伸延浪计算回吐的50%，故不排除欧元的第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)Stretching within the waves(c)浪有机会在上周二最低的1.4629完成。若确认运行完第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(4)伸延浪，欧元将运行大型第(V)Within the waves5Within the waves(5)伸延浪即最后一个上升浪。

上周欧元处于低位整固阶段，阻力明显见于1.49关口，预计至250Balance moving average1.5040亦是一重要阻力区域，欧元自跌破250天平均线后，亦见欧元持续在此区下方盘整，因此估计后市至少要回升至此区上方，才见这轮欧元跌势才得以舒缓。预计进一步阻力则会见至另一关卡200Balance moving average1.5235水平。另一方面，下方支持见于1.4630，亦即为上周所及低位，估计失守后整体跌势亦见再度开行，若以双顶技术跌幅可至1.4565水平。预计下一级关键则可看至1.45Horizontal and1.4360Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)