New Zealand dollars : (8month18day)

纽西兰统计局上周公布，纽西兰6月经季节调整的零售销售较前月成长0.9%，扣除汽车的零售销售较上月持平，实质零售销售较上年同期增长1.5%。市场原先预估6月经季节调整零售销售较前月增幅为0.1%，扣除汽车的零售销售下降0.8%，实质零售销售较上年同期增长1.1%。纽西兰第二季经季节调整的零售销售较前季下滑1.5%, estimated to decrease1.6%；第二季实质零售销售较上年同期增长2.2%, estimated to be growth1.9%。

纽元在7month15日反弹至0.7760后一直下跌，并跌至上周三最低的0.6818。现阶段纽元跌至此水平，应会找到短暂支持，不排除将会出现反弹。但长远仍以下跌为主导，目标有机会下跌至0.60水平。纽元运行大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves3Extend the waves. from2month27日最高位0.8213开始至现在运行大型调整(A)浪。即由0.8213to5month15Daily low0.7536有机会为大型调整(A)Within the waves(1)Waves, and0.7536to5month27Daily high0.7922为大型调整(A)Within the waves(2)Waves,0.7922to6month13The low point of the day0.7446为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,0.7446to7month15Daily high0.7760为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves2Stretching waves,0.7760至现在为大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)Within the waves3伸延浪。预料此第3伸延浪将进一步下试0.65以下水平，而整个大型调整(A)Within the waves(3)浪底有机会下跌至0.60Horizontal.

图表所见，纽元上周已跌至250周平均线，现在此250The balance moving average0.6980；加上月线图上的保历加通道底部亦在0.6800附近，故0.6800-0.6980应有一定的支持力，跌穿此支持纽元有机会下试100个月平均线即0.6040附近。较近支撑先可留意0.68and0.67水平。反弹阻力则在日线图上的10天平均线即0.7090水平，若突破此阻力有望扭转近月之颓势。预计进一步阻力可见于0.7220and0.7350Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)