AUD : (8month18day)

澳元方面，自澳洲央行暗示该国利率已经触顶，且商品价格大幅下跌以来，澳元兑美元自7month15Heliocentric25Annual high point0.9851已下跌逾14%。投资者此前数月一直在借入日圆买入澳洲和纽西兰资产，从而为澳元和纽元提供关键支撑，但现在这种趋势发生改变，由于投资者特别是日本投资者猜测澳洲将大举降息，从而在过去几日解除了这些杠杆部位。澳元兑日圆周五收报95.68，上周收报97.52。利率futures目前暗示澳洲央行9Monthly interest rate reduction50个基点的机率为50%，澳洲利率目前处于7.25%of12年高点。澳洲央行表示信贷危机所导致的最坏的时期已经结束，且央行无法等到通膨回落才开始降息，央行表示有信心将通膨拉回目标水准。

现阶段澳元已经在7Monthly high0.9849结束七年多的上升浪，并开始运行漫长的下跌浪。预料澳元随美元上升而将下跌至0.79-0.80水平后方找到支撑。中线走势估计澳元澳元已经转势，今年馀下时间倾向以下跌为主导。波浪理论分析，澳元有机会已运行大型第AWithin the waves(A)浪。澳元自2001year4月开始展开长期的上升浪。由01year4month3Daily low0.4814to01year8month21Daily high0.5389For the large sectionIWaves,0.5389to01year9month18Daily low0.4814For the large sectionIIWaves,0.4814to02year6month18Daily high0.5794For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(1)伸延浪，由0.5794to02year8month6Daily low0.5227For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(2)伸延浪，由0.5227to03year7month7Daily high0.6845For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(3)伸延浪，由0.6845to03year9month3Daily low0.6340For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(4)伸延浪，由0.6340to04year2month18Daily high0.8003For the large sectionIIIWithin the waves(5)伸延浪，即澳元的大型第III浪顶亦在此完结。由0.8003to04year6month18Daily low0.6772为大型的第IVWithin the wavesA浪，由0.6772to05year3month8Daily high0.7988为大型的第IVWithin the wavesBWaves. from0.7988to06year3month28The low point of the day0.7014为大型的第IVWithin the wavesCWaves, and0.7014开始为大型上升浪的第V浪，并以伸延浪运行。即0.7014to06year5month9Daily high0.7791For the large sectionVWithin the waves(1)浪，由0.7791to06year6month27Daily low0.7269为第VWithin the waves(2)浪，由0.7269to06year9month5Daily high0.7719为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,0.7719to06year10month6Daily low0.7413为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves2Stretching waves,0.7413to07year7month25Daily high0.8870为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves3伸延浪。0.8870to07year8month17Daily low0.7673为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves4伸延浪。0.7673to07year11month7日最高位0.9399为第VWithin the waves(3)Within the waves5伸延浪，亦代表整个第VWithin the waves(3)浪在此完结。0.9399to08year1month22Daily low0.8511为第VWithin the waves(4)Waves,0.8511开始为最后一个上升浪，并以上升楔型运行。由0.8511to2month28Daily high0.9496For the large sectionVWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(i)Waves,0.9496to3month20The low point of the day0.8951For the large sectionVWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(ii)Waves,0.8951to5month21Daily high0.9652为第(iii)Waves,0.9652to6month12Daily low0.9326为第(iv)Waves,0.9326to7month15日最高位0.9849For the large sectionVWithin the waves(5)Within the waves(v)浪，并在此完成整个大型第V浪。而由0.9326开始至现在应为大型调整AWithin the waves(A)浪，预料此大型调整AWithin the waves(A)浪有机会以3个浪运行，而整个大型调整AWithin the waves(A)浪有机会下跌至0.79-0.80水平。当运行完大型调整AWithin the waves(A)浪后，将运行大型调整AWithin the waves(B)浪即反弹浪。

图表走势所见，澳元已历时一个月受压于5天平均线，技术态势依然看淡。07year8month17Daily low0.7672升见至今年高位0.9849Togold比率计算，61.8%回吐水平为0.8500水平；而月线图则见25个月平均线在0.8560，亦为一较有意义支撑。预计本周较为关键之支撑则会指向0.84水平。至于重要阻力则会参考0.90关口，较近阻力可先留意5Balance moving average0.8730and10Balance moving average0.8910Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)