Chaoyang Bajin:5.16Why did crude oil skyrocket and plummet, and gold and crude oil "go their separate ways"?

Summary: 1crude oilWhat is a sudden rise and fall? (Strong bullish trend, with spot crude oil firmly bullish) 2、 The three major factors that affect oil prices,OPECWhat is the impact of the extension of the production reduction agreement on the spot crude oil asphalt? III5.16Technical analysis of spot crude oil 4、 Spot crude oil operation strategy 5、 Message
Don't put too much energy into the choices and regrets of yesterday. Would you rather be a hedgehog eager to embrace or a snail that always hides when hurt,Everyone makes mistakes in trading, which is inevitable. I am no exception. What I miss will not come back, and doing well in the present will never be wrong. The market is already clear, and opportunities will not wait for others. Without anyone, the earth will still turn. We may have some achievements, but ultimately it is only the dust of history.
      In his speech at the "the Belt and Road" meeting on Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Farih said that Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed that the production reduction agreement should be extended, and the expiration date of the agreement should be2018In the first quarter of the year, this decision will be made5month25To be made at the daily meeting. Subsequently, Russian Energy Minister Novak also stated thatOPECThe production reduction agreement should be delayed2018year3Month. After the news was released, crude oil broke through49Up to USD49.6The high position was then hindered and fell back. Due to the US Energy Information Administration stating that it is expected that shale oil fields in the United States6Increase in total monthly production12.210000 barrels/Solstice540.310000 barrels/Day, greater than5Of10.910000 barrels/The daily growth rate and expected increase in shale oil further led to a decline in crude oil.
————Why did crude oil skyrocket and plummet? (Strong bullish trend, with spot crude oil firmly bullish)
Chaoyang believes that the most direct reason for yesterday's surge in crude oil is the extension of the production reduction agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia9Last month's news, yesterday's spot crude oil increased from the initial47.60Nearby, it continues to rise, reaching its highest point49.60Nearby, the price rose to as much as two dollars, followed by news of increased shale oil production in the United States, which put pressure on short-term bulls of crude oil, causing short-term declines and hitting the lowest point48.70First line, then stable at49USD position, Lefan last weekEIAI have been firmly bullish since the beginning of the night, and I believe that friends who have read Chaoyang posts can grasp this wave of profits. Yesterday, Chaoyang decisively increased its holdings and has been firmly holding onto it, with a clear goal50Above the US dollar, this wave of profits is at least3Above US dollars (calculated based on the platform that Chaoyang cooperates with, the profit from entering the platform is the least3000USD), even if it is at a low level, it can still enter the market, and the profit is also considerable. The specific entry point can be seen in Chaoyang Chaoyang will update real-time suggestions on its Moments from time to time.

————OPECWhat is the impact of the extension of the production reduction agreement on crude oil?
Oil prices are basically influenced by three major factors
1、 The demand for crude oil is directly proportional to the price of crude oil, which means that the greater the demand for crude oil, the higher the oil price will rise, while the less the demand, the higher the inventory of oil prices, and the lower the oil price.
2、 The supply of crude oil is inversely proportional to the price of crude oil. In the market, if the supply exceeds the demand, the oil price will fall. If the demand exceeds the supply, the oil price will definitely riseOPECThe postponement of the production reduction agreement will result in a decrease in supply. With unchanged demand, oil prices will definitely rise, so it is not surprising that oil prices have risen so sharply
3、 Geopolitical conflict factors. Geopolitical conflict factors will definitely drive up oil prices. Crude oil is an essential resource in wars, but once the war continues, crude oil inventory will inevitably be consumed, oil demand will inevitably increase, and oil prices will inevitably soar (as in the past, the United States launched missiles against Syria as an example, once this news is released, crude oilgoldAll silver surged.
OPECThe country will5.25The meeting to extend the production reduction agreement has begun, and the reduction in production is inevitably accompanied by a surge in oil prices,OPECThere have been frequent reports of production cuts and delays, and oil prices have risen significantly due to the impact of this news. Once the news is confirmed, there will inevitably be a surge in oil prices, rising and falling, stabilizing at the market's expected level. Therefore, in the near future, we have focused on bullish news. Oil prices, supported by the postponement of production cuts, are bound to be bullish. Now, the idea is to go long on dips, and there is still a chance for the medium and long term to enter the market, as long as the points are appropriate, Profitability is not a problem at all. For customers who have suffered significant losses or have had difficult operations recently, you can find Chaoyang After understanding your specific information, Chaoyang will help you develop detailed operational strategies, allowing you to regain confidence in the spot market.

Technical analysis: Resistance level has been broken Great potential for growth
Because London spot gold has clearly broken through the limit of per ounce1233The resistance of the US dollar, so the price of this precious metal may further climb to1245USD.
since1233The resistance level of the US dollar is from4month17Daily high point1295.42USD to5month9Daily low point1213.81The downward trend of the US dollar23.6%Fibonacci retreated. The next resistance level will be38.2%Fibonacci retreat——1245USD; If you can effectively break through this level, you can take a look50%Fibonacci retreat——1255USD.
Because it started with5month9Daily low point1213.81The rebound in the US dollar continues, indicating a shift from4month17Daily high point1295.42The downward trend of the US dollar has reversed; This rebound trend is likely to come1245USD to1255USD range. In addition, the downward trend line will be1230The US dollar provides support, and if it falls below this support, it may fall to1226USD.
5month7According to my analysis, I anticipate a bottoming out and rebound in the future. Stay tuned below1215USD（12. 12-4.21Fibolacci55%The support bit of the 'reverse gear', following from above1239、1245Reverse resistance level. From the current trend, the market is fully in line with expectations, and from the current technical perspective, the market will reach1245-1255The interval is inevitable, and the operation revolves around the support level1230/1226Just go long,.

Silver, like gold, revolves around16.60It's okay to go long nearby, but it's okay to pursue a long one. Clear market trends have always been brave and cowardly.
In terms of crude oil, it has been mentioned in several recent publications that it is recommended for the first time to directly explore the bottom of crude oil and increase the target47/50/53It would be great if the crude oil correction were more direct. The news side is supportive, and the technical side is clear, so there is no need for further explanation.
Trading strategy:
London Gold:1230More above, unexpected1226Replenish long, target1245-1255；
London Silver:16.65More above, target17.00-17.30；
WTICrude oil:48.8-48.5Multiple, target50；
Everyone wants to make a profit, but not everyone can make a profit. When the market is unclear, you work hard. When the market is clear, you already have no funds. Even if the market is good, you can only watch it. Even if you have to sharpen your sword for a thousand years, you can do the same with spot goods. When the market is unclear, you can watch more and do less to calm down. When the market is clear, you should take good care. If you dare not miss the midline layout I gave you last time, Although the market has already gone half way, the current situation is more clear, with at least half of the profits remaining, Are you willing to keep up with the operation?
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