Hu Wuwei Going long on crude oil now

Thursday（5month11Due to domestic factors in the United Statescrude oilThe impact of last week's inventory decline far exceeding expectations continues to ferment, and the market is beginning to see signs of a reduction in oversupply. In addition, more oil producing countries have expressed their concerns, which has led toOPECThe prospect of extending production cuts is becoming increasingly clear, with crude oilfuturesThe price closed higher for the second consecutive day, reaching the second highest closing price since the beginning of this month.
First New York Mercantile Exchange6Monthly deliveryWTIRising crude oil futures prices50Cents or1.1%, closing at47.83dollar/Barrel, created the main contract since5month1The highest closing price since the beginning of the day. LondonICEEuropean Futures Exchange7Brent crude oil futures prices for monthly delivery have also risen55Cents or1.1%, closing at50.77dollar/Bucket.
yesterdayOPECThe monthly crude oil market report released shows that countries including Nigeria and Libya4monthOPECReduced crude oil production1.810000 barrels/Solstice3173.210000 barrels/Day; Among them, those involved in production reduction11Member states4The monthly production has decreased to2967.410000 barrels/Today, Reuters calculated its production reduction execution rate as111%, higher than3Of104%。
The second thing worth noting is that,OPECThis year's nonOPECThe expected growth rate of oil supply is from last month's5810000 barrels/Daily significant increase64%to9510000 barrels/Day. However, Citigroup Futures Insight Energy Analyst Evans believes that although nonOPECSupply is soaring, but as long asOPECExtending the production reduction agreement, the market will still move towards supply shortages in the third quarter; This monthly report is also5month25Before the daily meetingOPECFinal evaluation of the oil market
In addition, Reuters citedOPECSources say that the organization is considering expanding its membership in the production reduction agreement, with a daily production capacity of25Ten thousand barrels of Turkmenistan and Equatorial Guinea will join the joint production reduction action. Sources say that more countries joining means that the magnitude of this production reduction may be even greater. In addition, Egypt is also expected to attend for the first timeOPECThe meeting, but stated that they will not participate in the production reduction.
Thirdly, the world's number one trader, Vito Group, recently pointed out that,OPECReducing production can reduce global crude oil inventories, but it cannot push up crude oil demand.IEAOn Wednesday, it was announced that,2017Expected increase in global crude oil consumption for the year13010000 barrels/Day. But Vito Group pointed out that crude oil consumption has only increased so far this year8010000 barrels/Day, far below expectations; The growth of global crude oil consumption is expected to continue to be weak, which may be difficult to achieve13010000 barrels/The expected level of the day.
Some analysts are also concerned that the oversupply situation in Asia may exceed expectations. Energy consulting agencyThe Rapidan GroupPresident McNally（Robert McNally）Point out that for2014There is still significant controversy in the market over how much crude oil entering Asia has been consumed and how much has been included in inventory since the beginning of this year.
Therefore, how far the oil market has gone on the path of rebalancing has become a divergence of institutional views. On Thursday, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch significantly lowered their expectations for Brent crude oil prices, stating that warehouse inventories remain high and that US crude oil supply will recover at a faster than expected rate. The bank now expects2017The average annual oil distribution price is54dollar/Barrel,2018Year is56dollar/Barrel; The previous predictions were as follows:61dollar/Bucket and65dollar/Bucket. The above only represents Hu WuweikkbkfwPersonal opinions.