Life's wealth depends on Kangbo

Recently, the stock market has been experiencing consecutive sharp declines, with many stocks hitting historic lows. After a brief bull market, commodities have embarked on a continuous path of decline. The bond market has been constantly struggling, and since the "debt crisis" at the end of last year, it has never been able to recover.



On one hand, there is a monetary tightening caused by interest rate hikes and balance sheet tightening, and on the other hand, there is an increasingly severe regulatory storm in the One Bank, Three Meetings. On one side, there is a desperate asset shortage......


Reduce production capacity, inventory, leverage, shift from virtual to real, prevent financial risks, and ensure financial security


Why do everyone look like they are facing a great enemy? What's going on in this world?


At this moment, I don't know if you, like me, think of the deceased "Periodic King" and his magical "Kangbo"?

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1、 King Zhou and his Kang Bo[/blockquote]


1King Zhou brought Kangbo into China


Known as the "King of Zhou" and "Nicholas" by people.Zhou Jintao, a pioneer in the study of Kondratiev's cycle theory in China, gained fame for his several successful predictions:


His famous saying "Wealth in life depends on health" is widely circulatedIt can be said that he has enabled more people to understand the economic cycle and Kangbo.



2We are currently in the midst of the fifth wave of health


In the eyes of King Zhou,Currently, we are in the process of transitioning from1982In the fifth wave of health that began in the year.



1991If we take the peak of American prosperity as the peak of the year entering a prosperous period, then2000Year or2004The year marks the pinnacle of Kangbo's prosperity.2004Years later, Kangbo had confirmed the transition from prosperity to decline.


And after experiencing2008After a shock in Kangbo,2015After the year, the Kangbo may transition to a depression, and the position where the fifth Kangbo recession transitions to a depression should be a long-term low point of asset prices.


3Other waves are also important


In addition to Kangbo, there are also waves related to the economic cycle:


Schumpeter's three period nested theory suggests that each Kangbo period is divided into six intermediate periods, with three short periods nested within each intermediate period. On this basis, Zhou Jintao evolved the theory of four period nesting.


Zhou Jintao believes that "these cycles are like a precise locator that can accurately locate any high or low point in the economy. By understanding them, one can basically understand how a society is progressing."


Furthermore, he believes that,"Cycle is a comprehensive product of the economy, technology, social system, and its social system. In the face of a large cycle system, the small changes in several macro indicators are not worth mentioning."


Unfortunately, heaven envies talents, years go by44He was 18 years old, but he suffered from pancreatic cancer2016year12month27Day passed away.


However, not long after, people realized that many of what he had said back then had come true.

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2、 What the periodic king left behind20A prophecy[/blockquote]


Some people say he is Some people say that his Kang Bo prophesied a person's lifelong opportunities, while others say that he is an alternative in the financial industry who never indulges in smoking, drinking, or debauchery. He only enjoys playing with ancient literature, and despite his integrity, he has never escaped his fate. And people's admiration for his predictions should be a commendation and emotion towards his passing. As ordinary people, we can also take this opportunity to glimpse the future through the words of the deceased.


1. Don't assume that everyone's wealth accumulation is due to their abilities. Wealth accumulation comes entirely from the opportunities given to you during the economic cycle.



2. The wealth trajectory of life is the Kondratiev cycle. A cycle of the Kondratiev cycle is60Year, a person's natural lifespan is60Year.


3. In theory, there are only three opportunities that a person can have in their lifetime. If they fail to seize each opportunity, their lifetime wealth will be lost. If you seize one of these opportunities, at least it's a middle-class person.


4. A Kondratiev cycle is divided into recovery, prosperity, decline, and fragmentation. The Kondratiev cycle that we are experiencing now is a transition point from recession to the bamboo flute, and the next decade is destined to be spent in the bamboo flute.


5. 2015Year is an important turning point for the global economy and asset prices, which means that the overall asset return rate for the next four to five years is not only unprofitable, but may even result in losses.2016Year to2017The year is a period of stagflation, and assets with poor liquidity may not be sought after by anyone. In the future2017Year to2019There may be a liquidity crisis this year.


6. 2017After the mid year and third quarter, we will see asset prices in China and the United States fall across the board,2019The final low point of the year may be much lower than people imagine.


7. I advise everyone,If you want to issue bonds, it's best to issue them for five years,2018You can feel the meaning of what I said after the year.


8. Until2025Every year is the fifth Kangbo Xiaotiao stage.


9. 40People over the age of 18 have their first chance in life2008If you buy stocks or houses at that time, your life will be very successful.2008Years ago, the last chance in life1999Year,40Not many people in their twenties seize that opportunity, so2008Year is the first opportunity.


10. The second opportunity is at2019Year, last time in2030Near the New Year, if you can catch a chance, you can become a middle-class person.


11. 1985Born after the year, now30People under the age of can only have their first chance in life2019Appears annually. So now25Year old to30A person of age, future5Year, can only work hard.Because buying a house doesn't do anything, it is determined by one's wealth and destiny in life.


12. A bull market in commodities occurs every few decades, 2011At least until2030In recent years, the trend of commodities has been a bear market, and it is impossible to achieve significant returns in terms of commodities.


13. Real estate cycle20Annually cyclical, China's current real estate cycle1999Starting from the beginning of the year, 2017Around the first half of the year, China's rebound will come to an end.2019The annual housing prices will be at a low point.


14. 2010After the New Year, there was a housing bull market in the United States,2017The year is the peak of the first wave, and if you buy a house in the United States, you can also wait a little longer.


15. The next five years are a period of decline for assets, so everyone should try to hold assets with good liquidity instead of assets with poor liquidity.High priced houses are assets with poor liquidity, and equity in the primary market is also an asset with poor liquidity.


last year9month14On the same day, CITIC Construction Investment Corporation released the latest micro roadshow minutes of Zhou Jintao, which discussed how to layout2017Year. The predicted content is as follows:


16. From the fourth quarter to2017The first half of the year may be the worst period for Chinese assets.2016The third inventory cycle in China in the fourth quarter of this year may gradually approach its peak, starting from2017At the beginning of the year, China's inventory cycle began to decline. At this time, the inventory cycle in the United States is still in an upward phase, and such a combination is detrimental to China's assets.


Due to the decline in real estate inventory in first tier cities and the inability to keep up with construction, it cannot be ruled out that housing prices may rise again. If the exchange rate falls first, housing prices may be suppressed. If housing prices rise first, the relationship between housing prices and exchange rates becomes a bit complex. It should be that housing prices rise first and then fall, followed by triggering certain systemic risks.


17. yes2017For the whole year, I still haven't found anything similar to it so far2016This is an opportunity for annual products. Global2009Since the mid cycle,2017The end of the year is a high probability event.


18. 2017Year to2019The year is a period of resonance and downturn in the real estate cycle between China and the United States. This question may not necessarily be related to2017The annual performance is very severe, but there may be trend characteristics.


19. 2017Year to2019The annual product will double dip.2017After the year, the commodity will once again dip, and the price of the second dip should be at2015Near the low point of the year.


20. 2017It is difficult to make absolute returns in a year,AThere is still no opportunity for stocks, mainly waiting for the oversold rebound after the risk is released. In terms of relative returns,goldIt must be the primary choice, and the timing of gold allocation is roughly estimated to be2017Second quarter of the year.

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3、 Can you definitely get rich by relying on Kangbo?
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Although King Zhou relied on Kang Bo and his four period nested theory to make multiple accurate predictions, many people still remain skeptical of Kang Bo.


They believe that the sample size of Kangbo's statistics is too small, at least observing more than10Time, observation period exceeded500Year, which means to2300Only in the year can the correctness of this theory be verified.


Regardless of which major events a theory has predicted perfectly, we should remain clear headed and not be overly superstitious.
Give an example of Merrill Lynch's "investment clock".


Merrill Lynch, one of the world's largest investment banks（Merrill Lynch）At2004The "Investment Clock" theory was proposed in, and has become one of the most widely circulated and influential investment theories in the world for over a decade.


As an investment compass, Merrill Lynch's "investment clock" answers the question of "what to buy".


The method is simple. Merrill Lynch Clock divides the economic cycle into four different stages based on the variables of "economic growth" and "inflation", namely recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation.


At each stage, there is a specific asset class that outperforms the market: bonds, stocks, commodities, or cash.



By analyzing1973-2004A test of US market data found that Merrill Lynch's investment clock theory perfectly demonstrates that at different stages of a complete economic cycle, the bond market, stock market, and commodities take turns leading major asset classes. Tested and effective!



However,08The financial crisis of the year dealt a severe blow to its face, not only because of the "dual bull" of stocks and bonds after the crisis, but more importantly, as the "father of the clock", Merrill Lynch was deeply trapped in the subprime mortgage crisis and was acquired by Bank of America. Subsequently, under the continued impact of the crisis, Merrill Lynch suffered significant losses, dragging down Bank of America.


This indicates that both Kangbo and four period nesting must have their limitations.


So as long as you observe carefully, you will find that in China, Merrill Lynch's investment clock has long turned into an electric fan!


Finally, let me tell a mysterious story:

[blockquote]
After the death of King Zhou Tianwang, Professor of Economics and Finance and Doctoral Supervisor of Financial Engineering Fang Sihai expressed his condolences on his social media, saying, "I..."2008When I was teaching my students as an apprentice, I said, "Don't learn to predict and reveal the truth.". Those who do our job well either leave early or become monks. Three subordinates and junior brothers left at once, and I couldn't accept it. I woke up in the middle of the night and didn't go to bed until five o'clock, but I still had a premonition in my heart[/blockquote]


Do you still want to learn Kangbo after watching this?


Finally, use a pair of couplets from Teacher Gao Shanwen to form a conclusion:

Explaining the past is straightforward and seems reasonable;

Predicting the future is evasive, with astonishing errors.

Horizontal Review: Economic Analysis