5.08Early evaluation of crude oil

crude oilEarly review:OPECTo extend production reduction, crude oil or Jedi rebound

－－－LIANG

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Crude Oil Eurasian Strategy:

[table=100%,white]US crude oil:47.30Empty, stop loss47.80, Objective46.41

US crude oil:46.41Multiple, stop loss46.15, Objective47.30

Fundamental analysis:

Last Friday（5month5In the early morning trading session, the market plummeted to43.99After that, a significant rebound was formed, with the highest rebound reaching47.23The daily fluctuation exceeds5USD. U.S.AWTI

6Monthly crude oilfuturesElectronic disk prices closed higher0.98USD, increase2.15%Report46.47dollar/Barrel;ICEBrent7The electronic price of monthly crude oil futures closed higher1.12USD, increase2.32%Report49.47dollar/Bucket. Last Friday, the oil price experienced significant fluctuations, and hedge funds cleared their long positions, causing the oil price to drop to the lowest level since last year5The low point since the beginning of the month. Afterwards, Saudi Arabia stated that Russia was prepared to cooperate withOPECAn extension of the production reduction agreement and positive US economic data have alleviated the previous panic in the market, and oil prices have ultimately risen by more than2%。

Iranian Oil Minister Beijing Time Last Saturday(5month6day)express,OPECPossible extension of production reduction, expected nonOPECThe country will also extend the production reduction. Saudi Arabia stationed inOPECOn behalf of Beijing time last Friday, it was stated that based on current data, there is increasing belief that the production reduction agreement may need to be extended for six months to restore market balance, but the specific time for extending the production reduction agreement has not been determined. Saudi Oil Minister Falkh5month4The Japanese and Russian energy ministers discussed the oil market situation on a phone call, and the two sides will meet in Beijing in the near future. The Saudi Minister of Oil and the Russian Minister of Energy expressed satisfaction with the fundamentals of the oil market and both agreed on the need to continue cooperating with other oil producing countries to guide the oil market to regain balance.

Technical analysis:
  

Last Friday's crude oil price trend was both expected and unexpected. As expected, regardless of whether the market drops enough to break through44.48There is bound to be a significant opportunity for the market to rebound and rise, and during the afternoon lecture, we also happened to buy multiple orders of crude oil. Surprisingly, the market price fell directly to43.99，43.99Constrained44.08Support. However, the market has also given us a clear signal that the price of crude oil market will further decline in the future43.99dollar/The rise of the barrel is just a rebound.

In the daily trend, since we have determined that the main direction for the future is downward, then the current trend is43.99The rebound to which price is related to our current operations. Judging from the analysis of daily trends54.08Starting from the high point of decline, the market exists50.28、49.87The downside risks of these two points, that is to say, the current market is shifting from43.99The rebound and rise can at least surpass the rise50.28。 In addition, there are several important pressure positions in the daily line, which in turn are:47.19、48.39、50.28、51.19、51.41、51.70。 The above pressure positions are all related to the market43.99The pressure points that we need to pay attention to during the rebound process. in especial50.28、51.41as well as51.70These three pressure positions are also pressure areas that are highly likely to form rebound highs in the future, and investors should pay attention to them.

The daily level confirms the overall trend for us.4The hour level provides us with trading opportunities for making orders within the day.

analysis4Trend of hours, starting from43.99The upward trend does not exist, it is just a unilateral upward trend,4There are no effective signs of a pullback in the hourly trend. Encountered at the moment47.19The central axis rhythm pressure has slowed down the upward speed. from4The trend of the hour and1Looking at the trend of the hour, there is a high probability of a pullback in the market under this pressure point. The target of the downward retreat can be seen1The rhythm support point of the hour45.69Nearby. stay4In the hourly cycle, the market faces short-term challenges3The important pressure points are47.19、48.39and48.95。 among48.39It is a changed point,47.19It's the central axis,48.95It's a point of rhythm pressure. Usually, the market cannot afford to fall48.39The probability of having a decoy is extremely high. Therefore, our current thinking is to establish short orders in batches during the process of market rise, and when the short selling ends or encounters1When there is an important support of the hour, clear the empty crude oil orders and arrange multiple crude oil orders separately. The layout points for crude oil empty orders can be found in47.19Layout nearby and above, target46.41Nearby, and it is possible to consider46.41Consider placing multiple orders in separate warehouses nearby.

Important data of the Asia Europe disk:



  
  

10:00

  
  
  

China4Monthly trade account(RMB100mn)

  
  
  

1643.4

  
  
  

1612

  


  
  

10:50

  
  
  

China4Monthly trade account in US dollars(USD100mn)

  
  
  

239.3

  
  
  

355

  


  
  

15:30

  
  
  

britain4monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment

  
  
  

0%

  
  
  

0.20%

  


  
  

16:30

  
  
  

eurozone5monthSentixInvestor confidence index

  
  
  

23.9

  
  
  

25

  


  
  

22:00

  
  
  

U.S.A4Monthly Employment Market Condition Index(LMCI)

  
  
  

0.4

  
  
  

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