The investment logic has completely reversed, and money has really come!

4month27Day, a family namedGuizhou GuilongA transaction issued by an industrial company5periodAAUnexpectedly, the interest rate of corporate bonds at level X is as high as7.8%. Raise funds for the construction of logistics parks.


The corporate bond interest rate has reached7%The above is not a case. According to media reports,4It will be available in the second half of the month7branch7%The above bonds.


At the same time, a large number of corporate bonds have been cancelled from issuance.2017Since the beginning of the year, nearly1Billion scaleCancel or postpone the issuance of bonds. only4In the month, cancelled or delayed issuance of bonds reaches136branch. Including companies like Vanke“AAARating enterprises.


The reasons for canceling the issuance include high costs and ineffective coverage of subscriptions during the bookkeeping process.


4month28On the same day, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) rose overnight2.819%Short term borrowing costs generated2A new high since the beginning of the year.


All of this indicates that:The money shortage has arrived, and the investment logic in the market has also reversed accordingly。


What is causing the current money shortage?


1、 Monetary policy tightening


Under the influence of the Federal Reserve's scale contraction and interest rate hike, as well as domestic efforts to squeeze foam for the housing market,China's monetary policy has also shifted from easing to tightening, opening up a cycle of interest rate hikes. And recently, the People's Bank of China has quietly started to shrink its balance sheet. On the one hand, the relaxation of capital controls on cross-border RMB has led toforeign exchangeContinuous decrease in accounts receivable; On the other hand, reducing net investment through open market operations to achieve a reduction in base currency. from1From the end of the month to3At the end of the month, the total assets of the People's Bank of China had already shrunk1.1Trillion yuan, with a decrease of up to3%. Shrinking the balance sheet has a particularly prominent impact on market funds due to the currency multiplier effect.


2、 Financial market consolidation


This year, the regulatory authorities have carried out a major overhaul of the banking industry in order to deleverage and prevent financial risks.asInclude off balance sheet financial management into the broad credit indicators for assessment, forcing banks to shrink their off balance sheet investments that are not qualified, involving a large amount of funds20More than trillions. Recently, there has been a continuous decline,Special rectification of violations such as "three arbitrage" ("regulatory arbitrage, idle arbitrage, and related arbitrage") and "four improper" ("improper innovation, improper trading, improper incentives, and improper fees")We will use a heavy hand to curb the idle flow of funds.These also enable banks to tighten their funds.


In times of loose monetary policy, people are enthusiastic about investing by borrowing money because borrowing interest rates are low. So big banks issued interbank certificates of deposit and gave money to small banks, which entrusted the money to external institutions, which then aggressively leveraged it. As a result, the investment market boomed, the stock market, property market and bond market also benefited, and the foam became bigger and bigger. At present, with a shortage of money approaching, this logic of making money no longer exists.


Under the shortage of money, financing costs continue to rise, and the pressure on debtors will also increase. Meanwhile, the stock market, real estate market, and bond market have been hit. So, the market will presentThe economic return rate is decreasing, and the financing cost is increasingThe situation. At that time,Some companies with weak financial strength or poor financial condition may default on their debts。


So, what should investors do in the face of a market reversal?


In terms of asset allocation, following the principle of cash being king, it is recommended to appropriately reduce the proportion of investment funds.


In terms of investment direction selection, due to the rising cost of debt and the tightening policy environment, it is not recommended to buy a house for investment; Money shortage is bearish for the stock market. With valuation support, there may be a stable downward trend. If you want to buy at the bottom in the future, you can find some cheap goods, but you still need to wait for one or two years to reap the benefits;goldIt is also in the spring sowing stage, but given the uncertainty of the world political situation this year, the opportunities for gold outweigh the risks; If it's a short-term investment, currency funds like Yu'ebao, which have recently seen higher returns, are also a good choice.

Tian Si