Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD4month18Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/美元日线图从2month22日至今一直在中期高点0.7780下方震荡调整，受到最近几个交易日动能交替频繁的影响，中期的动荡持续。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元上一个交易日创出短线新高0.7610遇阻回调，当前围绕下落低点0.7580缓慢调整，经过连续的调整澳元将会进一步下探0.7565. Short line support0.7565,0.7550;resistance0.7610。
　Industrial Investment:
AUD/美元周一冲高回落，但依旧收涨，为连续第四个交易日反弹，收于0.7590。今日亚市早盘，澳储行公布4月会议纪要之后，澳元/美元跳水急挫近40Point to0.7560。纪要显示，虽然澳洲经济在2017年开头温和复苏，但劳动力市场预期的疲弱导致薪资增长缓慢，房地产市场及家庭债务风险攀升，未来几个月将密切监控劳动力市场和房地产市场。并重申了澳元升值和中国风险。较为鸽派的会议纪要令澳元重挫。稍后关注美元走势和市场情绪。
　　日图隔夜收录的阳线上影响较长，暗示上方压力较大短期可能会出现回调。4Hour chart from0.7740一线以来的震荡下行走势保持完好，短期有望测试0.7530一线。小时图0.76附近出现回撤，并于0.7585一线下方扩大跌幅，下行动能极为猛烈。
Support position:0.7530/0.7500/0.7490Resistance level:0.7600/0.7640/0.7700
AustraliaGCG：
　　今日早盘，受澳联储公布货币证词会议纪要影响，澳币短线走低20点，汇价前几日受美元走软以及本身就业数据良好影响澳币自0.75的关口开始拉升至0.76的关口，随后日线自今日开始掉头，我们在报告中也提及0.75的关口价格的重要性，提出做空的需要给一定回调空间，给出的空单点位在0.7580，目前来看也几乎抄顶。回到日内，0.7580的空单可以继续持有，下方再次看向0.75，没有入场的继续等待回调至0.7580附近入空单。
Yahui China:
　　日内澳洲联储公布会议纪要表示，虽然澳洲经济在2017年开头温和复苏，但劳动力市场比预期的疲弱，导致薪资增长缓慢，澳元受影响小副走低20点。技术面上，澳元兑美元虽然近日有所回落，但短期趋势仍偏向上行，不过汇价自试图突破0.7600关口失败后，便转为回落回落。
　　Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　

商品货币：

昨日由于休市，加拿大方面并没有数据公布。但昨天加元触底后反弹至今早高位，但

4H、图仍旧位于62日均线一下，仍旧维持震荡形态。日内如果能够成功站上62日均线，则短期内看涨。昨日中国公布的数据虽然整体向好，但是澳元却并没有太大波动。受到昨日美国财长努钦讲话的影响，澳元开盘后出现下跌。从天图上看已经突破两日前的低点，

投资者应该重点关注澳元的日内走势，不排除有汇价有进一步下跌的可能。

　　

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:30U.S.A3月新屋开工(Annualized monthly rate)+3.0%-2.8%Waiting

20:30U.S.A3Annualized total monthly construction of new houses(10000 households)128.8125.3Waiting

U.S.A3月营建许可(Monthly rate)-6.0%-6.2%+2.8%Waiting

U.S.A3Total monthly construction permits(10000 households)121.6121.3126.0Waiting

20:55Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(the annual rate)(to0415)+1.6%Waiting

Last week's Red Book commercial retail sales in the United States(Monthly rate)(to0415)+0.9%Waiting

21:00Canada3Monthly Housing Sales(Monthly rate)+5.2%Waiting

21:15U.S.A3Monthly capacity utilization rate75.9%75.4%76.2%Waiting

U.S.A3Monthly industrial output(Monthly rate)+0.1%0+0.5%Waiting

U.S.A3Monthly manufacturing output(Monthly rate)+0.5%Waiting

U.S.A3月制造业产能利用率75.4%Waiting

　　

Focus:

Vantage FXWanzhiforeign exchange交易平台出入金流程（https://www.vantagefx.cn/caozuozhinan/c17041801/ https://www.vantagefx.cn/caozuozhinan/c17041802/）
　　

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