Vantage FX万致：英镑兑美元4month5Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
GBP/美元日线图继续对均线系统形成反复穿越，中期的横盘震荡局面持续。从小时图走势来看，英镑/美元上一个交易日在1.2465价位稍作调整后延续了短线的区间内下落局面，英镑昨日下落到1.2420获支撑围绕低点形成了上下沿有所收窄的低位调整节奏，英镑经过短线的调整进一步跌向1.2375. Short term resistance1.2500, support1.2375。
　　邦达亚洲：
　　英镑昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.2440附近。英国周一表现疲软的制造业PMI影响发酵，引发英镑短线投机性多头回吐，持续对英镑构成了打压是施压英镑下挫的主要原因。此外，英国脱欧的不确定性忧虑也对汇价构成了一定的打压。今日关注1.2550Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.2350Near.
　　Industrial Investment:
　　英镑自1.2550一线受阻来连续两日走低，逼近走平的50日均线。上周五欧盟在披露的英国退欧指导方针草案中，态度强硬地要求，在与英国谈判贸易协定前，必须要在退出欧盟一事取得足够的进展。英国首相梅则暗示，在2019年完成退欧事宜之前，不会与欧盟达成新的贸易协定。双方强硬的态度打压英镑，而本周公布的英国3月制造业和建筑业采购经理人指数均不及预期，也拖累英镑。此外，由于当前受风险厌恶情绪主导，也使得英镑表现羸弱。日内关注英国3月服务业采购经理人指数和美国相关事件风险。
Daily chart on1.2550-1.2400区间内震荡，短线缺乏方向。4小时图震荡走低但在1.2400上方存在支持可能限制跌幅。小时图在回调低位整理，多空拉锯。日内建议1.2400Long trading in frontline light positions, stop loss1.2370Let's take a look first1.2480附近。若有效下破1.2400则反手做空。
Support position:1.2410 1.2370 1.2330Resistance level:1.2450 1.2490 1.2540
　　TeleTrade：
GBP/美元延续了周一的跌势，盘中刷新三日低点至1.2418。周一公布的英国3monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIRecorded54.2，不及预期值和前值，引发英镑短线投机性多头回吐。今日英国方面将公布3monthMarkitService industryPMI指数，预计将自前值53.3轻微回升至53.4，若数据结果符合或好于预期，将给英镑带来短暂提振;反之若数据结果不及预期，将打压英镑进一步回落。稍晚关注美国"Small non-agricultural"3monthADP就业人数报告、MarkitmanufacturingPMI终值以及ISM非制造业指数。另外，市场还将密切FOMCEarly Thursday morning this week02:00To be announced3月议息会议纪要，有助于市场寻找有关美联储决策者更多加息时间点的线索。
Key resistance:1.2480/1.2500/1.2520Key support:1.2410/1.2390/1.2370
　　技术上看，汇价连续第二日震荡回落并刷新了三日低位，今日亚市延续跌势试图进一步走低。4小时图上可见MA(10)UnderpassMA(20)Forming a dead cross,RSI指向低位，短期可能重测昨低1.2410and1.2390，上方阻力看向1.2480and1.25Gateway.
　　HUGEHaojue Group:
　　英美昨日下跌0.34%，今晨上涨0.05%Current report1.2446，昨日盘中最低来到1.2417，从日线周期上看英美受制于上方169天均线压制，但受压却未见大幅下跌，回调幅度相对有限，预示着后市极有可能选择向上突破，从60分钟周期看，自3/14以来的上涨，近期的调整尚未跌破上涨波段的0.618支撑位，且昨低也未跌破3/29The low point,MACD指标已经出现金叉，今天料上涨，有望突破4/3of1.2555高点，策略上禁空操作，逢低做多。
　　Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　GBP/USD：英镑近两日出现一定程度回调，目前位于1.2440位置附近，整体来看英镑上方形成一个近似“M”形态，关注1.2400关口是否会被下破，如果下破转向做空。阻力位上方1.2500Location, Below1.2400nearby。

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

19:30U.S.A3Monthly Challenger Enterprise Layoffs(the annual rate)-40.0%Waiting

U.S.A3Monthly Challenger Enterprise Layoffs(Monthly rate)-19.5%Waiting

U.S.A3Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs(ten thousand people)3.6957Waiting

20:30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0401)25.825.0Waiting

20:30Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0401)25.43Waiting

Last week's quarterly survey in the United States followed up on the number of claims for unemployment benefits(to0325)205.2Waiting

21:45Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index for the Week in the United States(to0402)49.7Waiting

22:30Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory(Billion cubic feet)(to0331)-430Waiting

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