Industrial Investment Gold Week Review: Gold Long Short Duel Non agricultural week may break through now

Industrial InvestmentgoldWeekly Review: Gold Bull Short Duel Non agricultural week may break through now
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International spot gold was once explored last week1260.90Subsequently, maintain a weak oscillation below this level, reaching the lowest point1239.62, received at1247.77Although the positive line remained low that week, the previous two weeks' gains have significantly slowed down.
Last week's trend showed that the early surge in the Golden Week was mainly due to the cancellation of the vote on the Trump healthcare reform bill by the US House of Representatives, which questioned Trump's governance ability and posed a risk of miscarriage of economic stimulus measures such as tax reform that the market had hoped for. However, both the US stock and bond markets have reacted relatively coldly to the news. On the one hand, it is possible that Trump mentioned shifting the focus of his work towards tax reform plans, and there are still optimistic expectations in the market. On the other hand, European Central Bank officials have refuted rumors that the ECB will tighten policies, highlighting that the US tightening policy is at the forefront globally, diverting market attention. It is precisely like this that the US dollar has launched a fierce rebound, which has also suppressed gold priced in US dollars.
However, as pointed out in last week's analysis, the rise in gold prices lacks sustainability, and an upward breakthrough may be a bullish move, while a weaker gold may be a bearish move due to the ongoing market uncertainty. The strengthening of the US dollar last week was also the case, as its rise was more indirectly driven by the weakness of the euro and did not receive full support from the US, thereby limiting the decline of gold. Federal Reserve officials gave intensive speeches supporting further interest rate hikes this year2-3The second view did not stir up market expectations for hawkish rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, so attributing the rise in the US dollar to the Federal Reserve's expected rate hikes was slightly weaker, despite the fourth quarter of the USGDPThe upward revision of the final value exceeded expectations, to some extent accelerating the rebound of the US dollar.
Compared to last week's lackluster news, this week's Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the US non farm sector, and the meeting between leaders of China and the United States are numerous events that pose risks, and the market may gain enough momentum to launch a new round of trend trends. For the currently not hot expectations of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve3Monthly meeting minutes and3Monthly non farming may provide clearer clues. Federal Reserve3The dove like increase in interest rates on the month has disappointed the market by repeatedly mentioning uncertainty by Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen at a press conference. The minutes of this meeting will introduce a sector chart for the first time, attempting to demonstrate the degree of uncertainty in the federal funds rate. If the Federal Reserve sends a dove like signal again, it will disappoint the market that still has optimistic expectations for the Fed's aggressive rate hike.
Similarly, as the labor market approaches full employment, non farm performance may no longer be enough to shake the Fed's stance, but it is crucial for a market lacking confidence. In addition, last week's announcementPCEInflation has increased, but still below the Federal Reserve's target2%This may cause the market to continue to focus on the rate of wage growth in this non agricultural sector. Market expectations for the United States3The number of new non agricultural employment per month17Around 10000 yuan, the focus will be on whether the average hourly wage continues to improve.
In addition, the outcome of the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States may affect the gold market through changes in market sentiment. The reason why gold remains relatively strong despite a significant rebound in the US dollar is largely due to potential support from uncertain factors such as European elections and the UK's exit from Europe. If there is news of Trump's softening stance on trade protectionism during the US and China leaders' meetings on Thursday and Friday, it may be beneficial for risky assets, rather than safe haven assets such as gold.
It is worth noting that the US Congress will be adjourned for two weeks next week. If Trump cannot propose economic stimulus plans such as tax reform this week, it will take at least half a month to submit them to Congress for vote. This will not be conducive to market consensus, making it more difficult for bulls and bears to determine the outcome.
Technically, weekly chart testing50Weekly moving average and early highs1263Nearby resistance level, below1240There is strong support and there may be volatility. Daily chart on1260The upper part is blocked, but the callback force is limited and needs to be broken down1240Only then can further downlink space be opened, otherwise there is a possibility of retesting1260Frontline. At the beginning of the week, we treated it as high selling and low buying, waiting for the upper and lower breakthroughs to determine the direction. Resistance focus1251/1260/1270, supported1240/1232/1225。