Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD3month31Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

　　Deng Fute:
AUD/美元在去年开始构筑的大型横盘区间上沿遇阻，延续了中期的动荡局面。从小时图走势来看，澳元/美元经历了本周周初的连续反弹之后，上一个交易日澳元创出反弹新高0.7680遇阻快速下落，澳元当前已经突破了0.7650支撑，短线的反弹阶段性结束。澳元/美元经历了上一个交易日的快速下落之后，日内围绕下落低点0.7635缓慢调整，经过短线的调整澳元进一步跌向3month28Daily low point0.7585. Short term resistance0.7680;brace0.7630,0.7585。
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/美元冲高回落，在刷新了五个交易日高位至0.7679后逆转走低，暂停了两连阳走势。汇价稍早反弹走升，受到外资涌入股市和大宗商品价格反弹的双重提振，不过由于美元指数整体维持坚挺，打压汇价重新走低并温和收跌。中国3月官方制造业采购经理人指数将较以往提前一天公布，制造业PMI自前值51.6Rebound to51.8Non manufacturing industryPMIsince54.2Rebound to55.1，不过数据公布后澳元/美元不涨反跌，目前仍处于弱势回落。稍晚关注美国2monthPCE物价指数和3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以及明尼亚波利斯联储主席卡什卡利和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德的讲话，料将引发汇价震荡。近期大宗商品价格震荡反弹，给商品货币澳元提供了支撑，并将在短期内继续引发澳元波动，值得投资者关注。
Key resistance:0.7680/0.7700/0.7740
Key support:0.7620/0.7600/0.7570
　　技术上看，汇价震荡回落，暂停了两连跌走势。近期澳元/美元维持震荡走势，并未走出明确方向。目前日图上保利加通道开口走平，RSIMaintain at50nearby;4小时图上可见汇价震荡走低，短期仍将维持弱势震荡。下一支撑水平看向0.7620and0.76Looking towards rebound resistance0.7680and0.77。
　　FX168：
AUD/dollar
　　4小时图上显示，该货币对仍位于20看涨均线和200levelEMA上方，而技术指标试图在积极区域内转而走低，增加了延续跌势的几率，但并未予以确认，因需要汇价跌破0.7570才能确认更深、更持久的跌势。
Support position:0.7640 0.7600 0.7570
Resistance level:0.7680 0.7720 0.7750
　　Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7600 0.7540 resistance 0.7700 0.7750
　　昨日提示澳元走势已经接近上方的阻力，可以按0.76-0.77的区间进行操作，澳元也是在上试0.7680之后便掉头向下，目前处于区间中轨位置，对于今日来讲仍是区间操作的思路。对于今日澳元仍有望在0.76-0.77的区间内运行，短期走势更偏下行，如跌破区间更下方的支撑在0.7540，上方的阻力首先是此前震荡过程中形成的重要阻力0.7700的关口，突破后则是年内高位0.7750。

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:30U.S.A2Monthly personal income(Monthly rate)+0.4%+0.4%Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly personal consumption expenditure(Monthly rate)+0.2%+0.2%Waiting

20:30U.S.A2Monthly personal consumption expenditure price index(the annual rate)+1.9%+2.1%Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly personal consumption expenditure price index(Monthly rate)+0.4%+0.1%Waiting

21:45U.S.A3Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index57.456.7Waiting

22:00U.S.A3Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month97.697.6Waiting

22:00U.S.A3The University of Michigan1Annual inflation expectation final value+2.4%Waiting

U.S.A3The University of Michigan5-10Annual inflation expectation final value+2.2%Waiting

22:30Last week in the United StatesECRILeading indicators(to0324)144.6Waiting

Last week in the United StatesECRILeading indicators(to0324)(the annual rate)9.0%Waiting

Focus:Vantage FX万致：欧元/加元价格回撤（https://www.vantagefx.cn/waihuifenxi/f17033102/）
　　

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