What is the impact of non agriculture on crude oil? (Analyst Guo Yichong, Ace Elite)

非农对crude oil有什么影响？（王牌精英郭逸崇分析师）

非农指的是美国非农业人口就业数据，代表着美国经济态势。若非农数据较好，则表明美国经济状况良好;若非农数据较差，则代表美国经济状况不佳，美元资本市场相对萧条。

非农数据对油价的影响如下：

非农数据好于预期，美国经济即利好，美元上涨原油价格下跌;非农数据差于预期，美国经济即利空，美元下跌原油价格上涨。(如果非农数据明显好于预期，市场会普遍认为美国经济形势向好，工业与民用领域的原油消费都会增加。这会促使油价上涨，投资者将倾向于买进原油做多。)另一方面，较差的非农数据促使美联储可能改变未来的货币政策为更加宽松，以刺激经济，这样流通在市场的美元供应量就会上升，相应的美元就会贬值，以美元标价的原油价格随之会上涨(非农数据影响美元价格，和美元价格一切相关的理财产品都会受到很大的影响，从而出现价格走势波动。)

同时，较差的美国经济，导致人们将放入美元资本市场的资金撤出转而投向原油市场以及其他增值更好的市场。

所以，从宏观上来说非农数据和原油价格是负相关关系。

非农期间现货原油投资者的关注点：

(one)技术分析主要的走势处在空头还是多头?多头和空头已经延续的时间周期的长短;

(two)非农前的基本面市场的反应，也就是市场预期的非农和前期的比较，进而大体判断好坏以及对现货原油的影响;

(three)在关键的位置附近做好两手准备，从行情的走向大势来判断和准备好介入的位置，采取分批介入和轻仓先行的方式，将现货原油投资风险化小。

基本上非农数据对于原油的波幅刺激都在100点之上，个别会出现单边波动400点。所以如果投资者的资金不是很大的话，建议数据出来前不要下单，等行情维稳再进场，不要追涨杀跌。

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