pound : (5month26day)

pound : (5month26day)
British Industrial Alliance(CBI)上周公布的调查显示，5月英国制造业订单连续第二个月下滑，且企业料将13年来最快的速度提价，因其需应对原材料成本大涨的局面。CBI的月度调查显示，英国5月总工业订单差值自4The negative of the month13略增至负10，原先市场预估为负12。尽管经济正在放缓，但市场如今在很大程度上预期年内不会再降息，英国4月通膨率达到3.0%，且英国央行针对物价压力发布了姿态强硬的展望。而英国上周亦公布零售销售和工厂订单降幅小于预期，暗示英国央行在通膨压力上升局势下央行仍有维持当前货币政策的空间。

英镑上周出现明显反弹，最低1.9478升见至周五最高1.9851。波浪理论分析，英镑有机会运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves3伸延中浪内的第(ii)伸延小浪，英镑在3month14Daily high2.0397开始运行大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)伸延浪,并以伸延浪运行，由2.0397to4month15Daily low1.9599为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves1伸延中浪，1.9599to4month21Daily high2.0026为第(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延中浪，2.0026to5month14Daily low1.9362为第(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves3伸延中浪内的第(i)伸延小浪，而1.9362至现在有机会为第(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves3伸延中浪内的第(ii)Stretching small waves. It is expected that this(ii)伸延小浪将不会升穿4month21Daily high2.0026，故第(ii)伸延小浪有机会在1.98-2.00之间完结。当运行完第(ii)伸延小浪后，第(iii)伸延小浪即下跌浪便马上展开。另一假设，英镑有机会刚运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(II)Within the waves(c)浪，由5month14Daily low1.9362出现反弹，故不排除在1.9362完成了大型回吐(A)Within the waves(II)Within the waves(b)浪。而1.9362至现在为大型回吐(A)Within the waves(II)Within the waves(c)浪，并有机会反弹至2.03-2.04Horizontal.

图表走势所见，英镑于上周突破其下降通道，5天平均线亦为突破10天平均线，当前升势仍有望持续，上望进一步阻力将为1.9900/20，英镑曾于月尾连日受制于此区后出现回落，因此可预期此区具有一定意义。估计进一步阻力则为250Balance moving average2.0065Horizontal. The support below can be found in5Balance moving average1.9700水平，关键则可留意10Balance moving average1.9600Horizontal and1.95Gateway.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )