pound : (5month19day)

英镑上周先跌后回稳，英国通膨上升将扼杀该国经济成长的前景令英镑承压。英国央行周三公布了悲观的通膨季报，突显了决策者面临的两难局面，一方面央行要控制大宗商品价格高涨引发的通膨压力，同时也要兼顾持续的全球信贷危机对经济的打击。报告削弱了对英国央行在6月降息的预期，导致英镑承受重压，最低见至1.9363，投资者担忧未来通膨上升将打压经济的同时，经济成长自身也在放缓。英国首相布朗也加入对利率政策的辩论，他表示希望英国央行能够进一步降息，该言论起初对英镑构成提振，但最终也未能打消投资者对高通膨和低成长共存的担忧。

波浪理论分析，英镑仍运行大型回吐(A)Within the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves3伸延小浪内的第(iii)伸延微浪。英镑在3month14Daily high2.0397完成大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(4)伸延浪，而2.0397to3month20Daily low1.9733为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves1伸延小浪，而1.9733to3month27Daily high2.0192为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪内的(a)Waves,2.0192to4month1Daily low1.9728为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪内的(b)Waves,1.9728to4month4Daily high2.0047为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves2伸延小浪内的(c)浪，亦代表第2伸延小浪在此完结。由2.0047to4month9Daily low1.9648为大型AWithin the waves(I)Within the waves(5)Stretching within the waves3伸延小浪内的第(i)伸延微浪，1.9648to4month14Daily high1.9893为第3伸延小浪内的第(ii)伸延微浪内的(a)Waves,1.9893to4month15Daily low1.9599by(b)Waves,1.9599to4month21Daily high2.0026by(c)浪，亦代表第(ii)伸延小浪在此完结。由2.0026至现在仍运行第3伸延小浪内的第(iii)伸延微浪，预料此第(iii)伸延微浪将下跌至1.90-1.92Horizontal.

图表走势所见，英国仍见陷于低位区间争持，倘若仍然受压于通道顶部1.9650，则见英镑维持承压下试发展，英镑重要支持应在1.94水平。另外，今年英镑三个最低位分别为1month22Of1.9335、2month20Of1.9353以及上周三所及之1.9363，因此英镑下一个低试目标应以1.9335为准，倘若英镑就这样向下冲破，进而将可望下试至20周保历加通道下轨1.9260水平，接续重要测试水准将为1.9180/1.9200水平。倘若可向上突破通道顶部，则有望摆脱近期弱势，上望进一步阻力则为25Balance moving average1.9710and1.99Gateway.

(Analysis provided by Zongheng Huihai Research Department | www.MW801.com )