Crossing the Sea 2017year1month23day

纵Henghuihai 2017year1month23day

Focus this week:
1month24day(Tuesday)
U.S.A1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A12Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A1Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index   

1month25day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index

1month26day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A12Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A12Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A12Monthly National Activity Index
U.S.A1monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A1monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A12Monthly leading indicator monthly rate
U.S.A12Monthly sales of new houses
U.S.A1月堪萨斯联储制造业指数
U.S.A1月堪萨斯联储综合指数

1month27day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A12Monthly rate of durable goods orders
美国第四季国GDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第四季最终销售初值
美国第四季消费者支出初值
US Q4GDP平减指数初值
US Q4 CorePCE物价指数初值
US Q4PCE物价指数初值
U.S.A1月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值



Important economic data released today:
21：30 Canada11Monthly wholesale trade rate‧Previous value+1.1%



1month20day
LondongoldMorning order price:1199.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:1200.55



Today's Introduction

最近一周投机客连续第二周减持美元凈多仓，因投资者继续削减对美元的过度建仓，且担心美国总统特朗普的贸易和汇率政策。根据美国商品futuresTrading Committee(CFTC)Data and Reuters calculations, as of1month17During the current week, the net long position in the US dollar decreased to244.4Billion US dollars, from the previous week249.5亿美元。特朗普11月胜选后美元大幅上涨，之后因围绕新政府政策的不确定性，尤其是其竞选时承诺的一项刺激计划，让美元承压。美元过去两个月上涨，受益于特朗普有关财政刺激和减税的竞选承诺，但在特朗普宣誓就职之前，这种涨势消退。1月迄今，美元指数跌1.3%。



XAU London Gold - 美元疲势支撑金价

特朗普上周五正式成为美国第45位总统 ，他的就职演说充满民粹及国家主义色彩，形容制造业没落及犯罪问题是一场“美国屠戮”，誓言将予以终结。特朗普以强悍语气指出，就业岗位外包至海外，对美国中产阶层造成重创。特朗普在就职典礼上对数以万计的民众表示，“从此刻开始，将是美国优先”。特朗普指责华盛顿建制派自我保护，抛弃饱受贫穷及犯罪之苦的普通百姓。他表示，在贸易、税制、移民、外交事务的每项决定，将以惠及美国劳工和美国家庭为目的。特朗普的演说引发一些对贸易保护主义政策的担忧，续令美元承压，而美股则为逾50年来首次在新总统入主白宫第一天以上涨作收。展望本周，多个数据重磅登场，美日法德及欧元区将公布制造业采购经理指数(PMI)、澳洲及日本将公布消费物价指数(CPI)、英法有国内生产总值(GDP)数据；美国和日本还将公布贸易收支。

伦敦黄金周五上涨，因美元下跌，美债收益率从高位回落；纵然美国就业、楼市和工厂数据均好于预期，强化了美国经济足够强劲能够支撑升息的观点，但对金价影响有限。同时，特朗普的保护主义言论，以及在减税和基建支出方面的承诺，都增加了黄金作为避风港的需求。自12月跌至逾10个半月低点以来，金价已累计上涨7%以上。技术图表所见，连日来相对强弱指标及随机指数高踞于超买区域，在目前终见回落，需慎防短线金价或会先作整固。下方支持预估在10Balance moving average1200，自年初以来，金价一直持稳于10天线上方，故亦要留意若后市跌破，料将是展开调整的一个讯号；较大支撑料为1181and1170美元，为最近一轮涨势的38.2%and50%回吐比率，另外亦可留意25Balance moving average1168水平。向上阻力方面，先看1215and1226美元。倘若以近两个月的累积跌幅计算， 50%The rebound levels will be observed separately1230USD,61.8%Will reach1255Horizontal.

London Gold2017year1month23 – 27Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1222 – 1232 – 1255 – 1288
Support bit:1207 – 1197 – 1184 – 1168

London Gold2017year1month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1207 – 1222
Resistance level:1233 – 1242
Support bit:1190 – 1174

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
2017year1month3Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month4Day - 813.87ton
2017year1month5Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month6Day - 813.59ton
2017year1month9Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month10Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month11Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month12Day - 805.00ton
2017year1month13Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month16Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month17Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month18Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month19Day - 807.96ton
2017year1month20Day - 809.15ton

2Maturity date of monthly gold futures:2month24day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year1month5day)

Global:33248.5ton(+67.2ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.9ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1615.2ton(+32.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - High range consolidation

伦敦白银方面，银价录得第四周连涨，上周五收报17.07美元。当前向上一个关键将是在100Tianping moving average, last year11The upward trend in the first half of the month is also constrained by100Antenna, currently in operation17.47US dollars; Additionally, a set of extensions from last year7The large downward trend line of the month is located at18.17美元，相信要升破此两区，才可望摆脱过去半年的弱势发展。另一方面，下方支持则预料在16.82，下一级指向16.50and25Balance moving average16.38USD.

London Silver2017year1month23 – 27Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.50 – 17.70 – 18.40 – 19.30
Support bit:16.70 – 16.30 – 15.70 – 15.00

London Silver2017year1month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.80 – 18.70
Support bit:16.20 – 15.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
2017year1month3Day - 10617.12ton
2017year1month4Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month5Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month6Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month9Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month10Day - 10612.51ton
2017year1month11Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month12Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month13Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month16Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month17Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month18Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month19Day - 10524.06ton
2017year1month20Day - 10524.06ton



EUR euro - 特朗普上任，欧元进击1.07

欧元上周四在欧洲央行宣布利率决议后反弹。欧洲央行宣布维持负利率政策，并保持创纪录的资产购买步幅，以刺激低迷的经济成长。欧洲央行总裁德拉吉 召开记者会期间，欧元曾短暂下跌。德拉吉指出，通胀依然低迷，欧洲需要进一步货币政策的扶助。在德拉吉讲话期间，欧元兑美元曾跌至1.0587美元，而当他指出没有什么政策变化时，欧元又反弹，周五升见1.07水准附近。技术走势而言，预估阻力则在1.08and100Balance moving average1.0835。由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均高踞超买区域已达两周多的时间，短线呈回吐风险加剧。目前50The antenna is in1.0570水平，若后市汇价回落此区下方，料欧元将有更强烈之下滑倾向。下方支撑将回看25Balance moving average1.0520and1.0360Furthermore, it can be seen that1.0250Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: France1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
Wednesday: France1Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Germany1monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧Italy11Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧Italy12月对非欧盟贸易平衡
Thursday: Germany2monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧Italy11Monthly retail sales
Friday: France1Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy1月制造业商业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone12monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧对家庭贷款‧对非金融行业贷款

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0800 – 1.0850
support 1.0580 – 1.0500 – 1.0360 – 1.0250



JPY yen - 央行总裁黑田东彦：美国经济增长可能推升美元

日本央行总裁黑田东彦周五表示，美国经济加速成长的前景可能推升美元汇率 ，他还对全球经济持乐观看法，不认同贸易保护主义可能蔓延并损及全球贸易的疑虑。他说，日本经济可望迈向可持续增长，但警告称日本尚未解决薪资增长疲弱等重大挑战。在谈及日本时，黑田东彦称，日本政策当务之急是克服通缩；目前面临的重大挑战是提高通胀预期，刺激企业提高薪资。他指出，在3月止的本财年及下一财年，日本经济可能扩张1.5%，受益于全球需求反弹。黑田东彦对复苏前景的乐观评论暗示，日本央行在1month30-31日对经济预测进行季度检讨时，将维持对经济增长和通胀的乐观预估。黑田东彦对经济的预测高于日本央行政策委员会的预估中值--今明两年经济分别成长1.0%和扩张1.3%。在日本央行公布季度评估前，央行总裁提出具体的成长估值，且与央行政策委员会预估中值不同，这种情况很罕见。黑田东彦后来对记者澄清，他的预估只是个人观点，不代表央行政策委员会的预估。

图表走势所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数落入超卖区域，要慎防短期美元出现反扑。倘若以去年11month9Daily low101.15to12month15Daily high118.66Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调水平为112，接近于目前汇价水平；若扩展至50%Will reach109.90。向上阻力预料在115.50，进一步则会看至25Balance moving average116.60and118Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Japan1Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI
Wednesday: Japan12Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan12Monthly nationwideCPI‧Japan1Monthly Tokyo AreaCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 115.50 – 116.60 – 118.00
support 112.00 – 109.90



GBP pound - 脱欧疑虑限制英镑涨幅

英国首相文翠珊上周已就英国退欧计划发表重要讲话 。新的一周有关英国退欧的重要消息，可能是周二最高法院裁决是否需要议会批准才能启动退欧程序。英国也将公布第四季经济增长初值，预计数据也将显示GDP环比增速减缓至0.5%，慢于7-9月的按季增长0.6%。技术走势而言，预估英镑兑美元短线仍会延续弱势，上方阻力料在50Balance moving average1.2410，本月初汇价连续两日受制50Antenna, if there is significant resistance, it is expected to be1.25Horizontal. Key estimates100Balance moving average1.2560Level, last year12月上旬，汇价正是没能突破此区而延展三周多的跌势，因此，汇价需突破此区才可望有着摆脱弱势的倾向。至于当前下试支持则仍会瞩目于1.20关口，进一步下探支撑预估为1.18and1.1720Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: UK12monthPSNB&#8231SNCR
Wednesday: UK1monthCBITotal industrial order difference
Thursday: UK12monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans‧英国第四季GDPinitial value‧英国工1monthCBIRetail sales difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2430 – 1.2500 – 1.2600*
support 1.2080 – 1.2000* – 1.1800



CHF Swiss franc - Technical oversold

The trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc has recently been in a narrow range of sideways trading, and the multi day low also coincides with50天平均线，就如同上周四及周五。相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，估计短线美元有回弹倾向。支持仍会瞩目于去年12At the beginning of the month, there was no permission to break through1.00Pass, reference for the next level250Balance moving average0.9840Horizontal. Attention should be paid to the resistance in the near market1.0350Further, we will see that1.04and1.05Horizontal.

Focus:
1month25day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland12Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland1monthZEWInvestor confidence index
1month26day(four)Switzerland12Monthly trade balance

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.0350 – 1.0400 – 1.0500
support 1.0000* – 0.9840



AUD AUD - End of sideways rise

In terms of technical trends, the Australian dollar has experienced12月下旬的横盘整理后，今年开局高涨，累计涨逾三百点。预估较大阻力在0.76and250Monthly average line0.7710水平，进一步将指向0.78。相对强弱指标及随机指数年初至今一直盘踞于超买区域，需防范汇价将有调整风险。下方支持料为0.74and25Balance moving average0.7310Furthermore, attention will still be focused on last year5month24The low point of the day0.7145Horizontal.

Focus:
1month25day(three): Australia Season 4CPI‧Central BankCPIweighted median ‧Central BankCPI截尾均值季率‧
1month27day(five): Australia Season 4PPI‧出口物价季率‧Seasonal import price rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7600 – 0.7710
support 0.7400 – 0.7300 – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - 标准普尔确认纽西兰的信用评级

Regarding the technical trend of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, let's take a look at the estimated upward resistance first0.7250and0.74水平，进一步至0.75。相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超买区域回落，短期汇价料有继续探低倾向，支持位预估为0.68Greater support will continue until last year5The low point at the end of the month0.6676To the extent that0.65Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand1The monthly consumer confidence index has risen21Month high128.7
New Zealand11月建筑许可经季节调整后较前月骤降9.2%
New Zealand12月经季调制造业PMIby54.5

Focus:
1month26day(four)：纽西兰第四季CPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7250 – 0.7400 – 0.7500
support 0.6800 – 0.6676 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 央行总裁波洛兹称若下档风险成为现实，仍可能降息

Statistics Canada announced that,12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Decline compared to the previous month0.2%, up from the same period last year1.5%。12Monthly CoreCPIDecline compared to the previous month0.3%, up from the same period last year1.6%。

技术走势而言，美元兑加元于上周五及本周二均曾逼近1.30关口，但均未有出现失守；而相对强弱指标及随机指数均呈上扬，示意着美元兑加元可望在短期内重新扬升。向上阻力预估先为1.3350and1.3460，关键阻力则为去年11Month and12月均曾探试未果的1.36关口。支持位则仍会瞩目于1.30关口，若然后市意外失守，则有机会以双顶型态延伸跌势，下一级支撑可看至1.28and1.2720Horizontal.

Focus:
1month23day(one): Canada11Monthly wholesale trade rate

Related news
Canada11Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3460 – 1.3600
support 1.3000* – 1.2800 – 1.2720





QR Code      http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)