Gold and Silver News-曾莫哲：从市场消息面剖析今晚ADP数据对金银的影响

Gold and Silver News-曾莫哲：从市场消息面剖析今晚ADP数据对金银的影响
　　
Wednesday（4.2）20:30美市盘中即将公布美国3monthADPEmployment data,ADPThe US Employment Report is published byADPsponsor,MacroeconomicAdvisersThe company is responsible for developing and maintaining. This report is collected from approximately50Thousands of anonymous American companies reflect the employment situation in the United States. stay2008In the first six months of the year, samples were taken from approximately the private sector in the United States39.9Thousands of enterprises, covering nearly2400万美国员工。该项数据是消费者支出的领先指标，占总体经济活动中的大部分。比劳工部公布的官方非农就业数据提前两天公布，被看作是非农数据的先行指标。市场也普遍将今天视作“小非农”。
　　
　　ADPMarket expectations for data this time19.5Ten thousand people, compared to the one announced last month13.9Ten thousand people have a very strong room for improvement. Market expectationsADP增加表示了其对就业率的乐观的态度，固预期值对现货gold、白银构成利空。
　　
　　但是在周一晚间，美联储主席耶伦的讲话中提到对美国经济前景的堪忧，表明了当下美国经济疲软的现状，甚至再次表达长时间维持货币宽松的重要性，其再次将鸽派风格展现的淋漓尽致。耶伦身为美联储主席一职，自不会空口说白话，所以笔者曾莫哲认为“美国经济的疲软”也并非空穴来风，其在本周最为关键的非农周的第一天便做出这样的言论，难免令市场猜忌本次非农的数据情况。但是市场所预期的就业人数大幅增加，主要是理论上美国度过了暴风雪天气后理所当然的经济复苏，也确实有这样的经济复苏所以才令市场对本次就业率如此乐观。耶伦的讲话无疑是给市场打了一击预防针，很可能这次就业率数据并非如市场预测的那样理想，对黄金、白银构成反转式的利多也不可而知。
　　
　　先不论公布值的多少，在如此强劲的利空预期下，日内现货黄金势必还会围绕一个弱势震荡的走势，在昨天触及一次1277Always hovering around after being nearby1280upper. Current location1280Nearby also locatedH4There is still a downward trend in the direction of the down track position of the Bollinger Belt, and currently the main focus is on1278、1272It is recommended to temporarily focus on the support situation in the vicinity within the day1275-1288Operation within the interval. nightADP公布以后势必对周五非农就业率有着非常强的指引作用，就让我们拭目以待吧。晚间具体操作建议请及时Q曾莫哲本人1799447835，或智合福金即使喊单体验群59888837验证信息“ZMZ”免验证勿扰！谢谢合作
　　
　　天通银短期内长时间维持3940-3870区间震荡，一方面日线及四小时各指标均陷入走平，无强有力的反弹或继续下挫信号，另一方面市场消息比较清淡，另外由于本周五非农的到来，市场相对谨慎。所以今日晚间ADP数据前，预计将继续维持窄幅波动。可在天通银首次触及日线10ma阻力做空；下方可在4H布林带下轨，即小箱体底部3880附近做多。同时布林带开始剧烈缩口，极有可能在今晚ADP数据刺激下有所突破。