Industrial Investment: Limited support for reduced oil drilling numbers Oil price rebound stalled

Industrial Investment: Limited support for reduced oil drilling numbers Oil price rebound stalled
2017year1month16day
crude oil：
Despite an unexpected decrease in the number of oil drilling platforms last Friday, concerns about the slowdown in economic growth in China, the world's second largest oil consumer, led to a deterioration in sentiment in the crude oil market. After two consecutive days of rebound, crude oil from both regions continued their downward trend since the beginning of this month. United StatesNYMEX 2Monthly crude oilfuturesfall0.51USD, decline0.96%Report52.52dollar/bucket;ICEBrent3Monthly crude oil futures decline1.02%Report55.62dollar/Bucket. However, due to concerns among investors about the implementation of production cuts in oil producing countries, crude oil in both regions fell nearly last week3%。
The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China last Friday showed that goods priced in US dollars2016year12Monthly export annual rate decline6.1%, falling below expectations3.5%The previous value is a downward trend7.7%For the second consecutive year of decline2009Worst annual performance since the beginning of the year;12Annual growth rate of monthly imports3.1%Expected growth2.7%. Exports have always been the backbone of the Chinese economy, and the weak export data this time has raised concerns among investors about the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which is unfavorable for the outlook of crude oil demand and puts pressure on oil prices.
However, the number of oil drilling platforms declined last week, limiting the daily decline in oil prices. According to data from Baker Hughes, an American oil service company, as of last Friday1month13During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased7Seat to522Seat12The first decline since the beginning of the week and the second week in seven months. After the data was released, oil prices slightly rebounded in late trading. It should be reminded to investors that according to relevant data, many shale oil production companies in the United States have already planned to2017The annual increase in capital expenditure was due to the rise in oil prices, which increased the bank's credit limit for the first time in two years. Analysts predict that,2017The estimated average total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States for the year is763Seat,2018Expected annual877Seat. This will pose a threat to oil prices.
Today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the New York market is closed, which may limit the volatility of oil prices. If there is no news about production cuts today, it is expected that oil prices may decrease52.50Nearby narrow oscillations.
USD Index:
Last Friday, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate and fall in early trading, reaching its lowest point in the day101Below the integer level, in New York trading, strong US "terrorist data" and other factors caused the US dollar to rebound from its intraday low12Monthly retail sales growth rate0.6%Expected to be0.5%Supporting US economic growth;12monthPPIThe monthly and annual rates both meet expectations and increase respectively0.3%and1.6%Annual rate creation2014year11The largest since the beginning of the month. But the rebound of the US dollar did not last. In late trading in New York, the US dollar was hindered and fell, recording a third consecutive day of decline and closing at101.20. The speeches of Federal Reserve officials on that day had limited impact on the US dollar. Today, the United States celebrates Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the US market will be closed. It is expected that the US dollar will remain at50Daily moving average(101Gateway)Upward fluctuation.
technical analysis
US crude oil:
Daily chart: Under the pressure of the medium-term upward trend line, there is still a possibility of a decline before breaking through.
4Hour chart: The rebound strength of the bottoming out and rebound is not significant,53.78The strong resistance in the vicinity is expected to limit the rebound space of oil prices.
Hour chart: Bounce to53.10There is a decline nearby, and the upward movement can slow down.
Overview: It is expected to continue the downward trend. It is recommended to do so within the day52.90Short selling on the front line, with stop loss set at53.45Above, let's take a look first52.00Look again51.50。
Brent crude oil:
Daily chart: The rebound did not last and fell back to20Near the daily moving average, it is necessary to confirm whether it will effectively fall below this level within the day.
4Hour chart: Although bottoming out and rebounding57.30The strong resistance in the vicinity will limit the space for oil price increases.
Hour chart:MA200The nearby resistance has limited the momentum of oil price rebound and is expected to continue from58.30The fluctuating downward trend since the first line.
Overview: Or tends to decline. It is recommended to do so within the day55.90Short selling on the front line, with stop loss set at56.45Above, let's take a look first55.00Look again54.50。
Follow on Monday:
Japan11Monthly Third Industry Activity Index Monthly Rate
Japan12Initial annual rate of monthly mechanical tool orders
Italy12monthCPIAnnual rate final value
eurozone11Monthly trade account
Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Day, closed for one day
Speech by Bank of England President Carney